I think with our current recruiting policy there's a fair chance we could finish 9th for the next 5 years+.
Teams that win premierships bottom out first.
I think with our current recruiting policy there's a fair chance we could finish 9th for the next 5 years+.
Teams that win premierships bottom out first.
Last edited by aardvark; 25th July 2010 at 11:49 PM.
Name the ones that have done so.Originally Posted by aardvark
Geelong 2001-2003. Brisbane 1998, Port Adelaide 2000,Hawthorn 2004 2005. Need I go on.......Nth Melb 1992, Adelaide 1994-1996....I can probably find more if you want.
Last edited by aardvark; 26th July 2010 at 12:20 AM.
1 bad loss and we're the new richmond. Throughout the roos era we have been the anti-richmond.
Absolutely no evidence of a richmond style era coming up.
You and I clearly have a very different idea of what it is to bottom out.
Geelong's list is as good as it is because Pagan didn't want Mooney and the blessing of the F/S rule, not to mention that in those three eyars they finished 12th, 9th, 12th, won 27 games and missed the finals by a whisker in 2002.
Brisbane had the benefit of a huge list after the merger as well as a 15% allowance which added to their pool.
Port Adelaide joined the competition in 1997 and went 9th, 10th, 7th, 14th, 5th, 3rd, 1st, 6th: You picked the one year they dipped (and still won 7 games). Hardly what I'd call 'bottoming out".
Hawthorn is a credibly entry with 9 wins over those two seasons, but still lean their team on second round picks (like Buddy) and later picks.
North Melbourne in 1992 is the same story as Port: they dipped in 1992 as players retired and the young guns, who had won back to back premierships in the under-19 competition (1990-1991) were finding their feet. In the draft that year they chose Robert Pyman (#6 overall, 1992) who was traded to Collingwood in 1995 cause he was a spud. From 1989 North went 9th, 6th, 8th, 12th, 5th, 3rd.
Adelaide won 26 games over those 3 years and was unlucky to miss finals in 1994 and 1995 owing to some close games (and there not being a final 8). It was a benefit but not a bottom out, and their #1 picks for those years were Toby Kennett (#27 overall, 1994), Brent Williams (#18, 1995) and Tom Gilligan (#13, 1996). Hardly stellar picks in drafts compromised by Fremantle, Port Adelaide and the tail of Sydney's priority picks.
Get some real figures (outside of Hawthorn).
The lesson of the draft is that the top picks will get you some good players, but premierships are won by savvy list management and lower-order recruiting and rookies, and then molding a game plan to tailor the list. Remember that every team must delist 3 players every year and draft 3 every year. It's not always an easy call to make.
Last edited by laughingnome; 26th July 2010 at 12:57 AM. Reason: had to check some figures.
10100111001 ;-)
Specifically on Brisbane, they played in finals in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000 in the lead-up years to their treble. In 1998 they had a horror run with injury and fell in a heap to finish last, but only really netted Headland as a result. He was a decent player but hardly the reason they won even one premiership, let alone three.
Exactly. The Bears made the finals in 1995 and everyone thought it a fluke. Then they hit 3rd in 1996 and looked the goods. They benefited from Victorian short-sightedness who didn't want to create a "super-team" by merging Fitzroy with North, so the Bears were choson in July that year. The Lions were mean and potent and when the kids matured they made every club that let that reason decide their ballot look like chumps.
10100111001 ;-)
I think it's also worth pointing out that since Barassi carved the Sydney Swans in his holy image (poetic licence) we have finished 2nd, 7th, 5th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 11th (2002), 3rd, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 5th, 12th (1996 - 2009). 11 years from 14 we've played finals, a record that is exemplary. And to kick the bottoming out theory we won a premiership and only fate stopped us getting another. I don't care what anyone else says: Freeborn's knee cost us the 1996 GF as well.
10100111001 ;-)
Bad thread.
No further explanation required.
The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.
We will see.....Oh and in another year or two I'll be able to include Melbourne as well.....
Last edited by aardvark; 26th July 2010 at 08:20 AM.
Yawn
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