AFL Premiership Round 18, 2010
SWANS Vs CATS
ANZ Stadium, Saturday 31 July, 7.10pm (AEST)
WEATHER
10c-19c Sunny.
TEAMS
Sydney
B: Paul Bevan, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner
HB: Nick Malceski, Heath Grundy, Tadhg Kennelly
C: Daniel Hannebery, Brett Kirk, Jarrad McVeigh
HF: Ryan O'Keefe, Jesse White, Josh Kennedy
F: Ben McGlynn, Adam Goodes, Jarred Moore
Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Kieren Jack
I/C: Lewis Jetta, Brett Meredith, Mike Pyke, Rhyce Shaw
Emg: Trent Dennis-Lane, Sam Reid, Patrick Veszpremi
No change
Geelong
B: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Corey Enright
C: James Kelly, Cameron Ling, Gary Ablett
HF: Shannon Byrnes, Cameron Mooney, Travis Varcoe
F: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson
Foll: Brad Ottens, Joel Selwood, Joel Corey
I/C: David Wojcinski, Mathew Stokes, Tom Lonergan, Trent West
Emg: Taylor Hunt, Simon Hogan, Daniel Menzel
In: Byrnes, West, Hawkins
Out: James Podsiadly (soreness), Jimmy Bartel (ankle), Mark Blake
TV & RADIO
Check the AFL Broadcast Guide
BETTING
SportsBet Odds: Sydney V Geelong $4.35 V $1.23
FORM & HISTORY
Head to Head: Sydney Swans 93 wins, Geelong 114 wins, no draws.
Last time: Geelong 19:12 (126) d Sydney 9.5 (59), round 7, 2010 @ Skilled Stadium
Sydney Swans: LLWWL
Geelong Cats: LWWLW
STATS
SYDNEY SWANS PLAYER STATS - 2010 Averages up to Round 17
AFL LADDER
Check out the Bailey AFL Ladder Predictor for the latest info
PREVIEW
Saturday night up in Sydney presents an opportunity for REDEMPTION for the Swans who are coming off arguably their worst defeat under Paul Roos.
Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, depending on how you look at it, they come up against the might of Geelong under lights at ANZ Stadium in Sydney.
Yes, it is possibly the toughest task in footy, but it's the kind of challenge you want when under pressure. You have the chance to throw caution to the wind and have a real crack at one of the competitions bench mark sides.
Last year, Geelong won the corresponding fixture by five points and whilst that result may not be convincing, the fact Geelong have won the past seven meetings between the two sides certainly is.
For Geelong, the next five weeks are all about slowly ramping up the intensity before the finals. This clash, combined with games against Collingwood, the Bulldogs and a plucky Carlton side should help fine tune them for September.
For the Swans it's all about making the eight. This has been a season of great change for Sydney, and Paul Roos should be commended for what he has managed to do with this team in his last season.
He has kept them in the mix for finals, and before last week, they were considered an almost certainty to make the eight one last time under their 2005 premiership coach.
However last weeks massacre at the hands of the Demons has cast serious doubts. Teams don't open the Swans up like that. Eight goals conceded in a quarter twice, and 22 goals in a game.
Sydney faces a difficult run home, and with pressure coming from North Melbourne and Adelaide, they must pinch at least two more wins and maintain their current percentage if they are to play finals.
Last week Sydney laid just 52 tackles, their lowest tally of the season, and they will need to apply far more pressure to Geelong.
When these two sides met in Round 7, Sydney produced the second fewest tackles they have in a game all year, and conceded 64 Inside fifties, the most they have all season.
Subsequently they lost by 67 points.
If you fail to apply pressure to the Geelong ball carriers, you will get punished severely.
Geelong gives you a chance because they always take you on. You must be very good though, and if you aren't the results are messy.
Sydney was taken out of their comfort zone last week, and need to settle them down when in position.
If you force Sydney to take the game on, invariably you are taking them away from their game plan which is what Melbourne did to them so well.
Geelong is the contrast to Sydney.
Rather then a slow and patient build up, Geelong constantly take the game on and share the footy. Sydney play on less then any other side, Geelong play on more then any other side. Sydney is the second lowest possession team in the comp. Geelong are the highest.
So one team will try to bottle the game up, the other will try to make it free flowing.
Geelong's disposal efficiency has been at 76% in the last six weeks, ranked number two in the AFL.
Geelong will enjoy the greater space at ANZ Stadium. As a rule, the Swans play the SCG far better then they do at Homebush.
They have less space to guard at the SCG and can control the tempo of the game and the tempo of their opponents to a far greater degree.
Adam Goodes has been fantastic during the last month, he will probably push through the middle. But if he goes forward, I could see Andrew Mackie taking him.
Mackie has the height and also the engine to go with him. Someone like a Taylor or a Lonergan could be lost in traffic, and someone like Ling would get beaten in the air.
O'Keefe and McGlynn will get close attention in the front half and Jesse White will need to be guarded closely.
White was the big hope in the pre season on the back of a solid finish to last year, but his form has been erratic all year. With Bradshaw sidelined and Henry Playfair being forced to retire, he has a lot of responsibility in the forward line. He's only young, but his time needs to be soon.
Injured Swans trio Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Craig Bolton and Nick Smith will be sorely missed in defence this week. Grundy, Richards, Mattner, Malceski and Kennelly will be under immense pressure to contain the Geelong forwards.
Last week was an aberration for the Swans in my opinion, but even though they are much better then that, they aren't in Geelong's class.
Paul Roos will have them up, and the effort will be much fiercer but the Cats are purring along nicely at close to full strength and will put another notch under the belt in the lead up to another exciting finals campaign.
Thanks to Darren Parkin of Dashersport for the preview. Be sure to check out his Facebook page for previews on other AFL games being played this round.
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