R19, AFL 2010 Swans V Hawks: Pre-game discussion

[aardvark]

AFL Premiership Round 19, 2010
SWANS Vs HAWKS
SCG, Saturday 7 August, 2.10pm (AEST)

WEATHER
5c-15c Sunny.

TEAMS

Sydney Swans
B: Paul Bevan, Ted Richards, Rhyce Shaw
HB: Nick Malceski, Heath Grundy, Tadhg Kennelly
C: Daniel Hannebery, Brett Kirk, Jarrad McVeigh
HF: Ben McGlynn, Ryan O'Keefe, Josh Kennedy
F: Mike Pyke, Adam Goodes, Jarred Moore
Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Kieren Jack
I/C: Trent Dennis-Lane, Lewis Jetta, Martin Mattner, Jesse White
Emg: Nathan Gordon, Brett Meredith, Sam Reid

In: Dennis-Lane
Out: Brett Meredith

New: Nathan Gordon [Rookie List, NSW Scholarship, East Coast Eagles]

Hawthorn
B: Stephen Gilham, Ben Stratton, Thomas Murphy
HB: Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Brent Guerra
C: Chance Bateman, Sam Mitchell, Xavier Ellis
HF: Shaun Burgoyne, Lance Franklin, Clinton Young
F: Michael Osborne, Jarryd Roughead, Jordan Lewis
Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Rick Ladson, Garry Moss, Matt Suckling, Simon Taylor
Emg: Jarryd Morton, Ryan Schoenmakers, Brendan Whitecross

In: Moss, Taylor, Suckling
Out: Wayde Skipper, Cyril Rioli (suspension), Brendan Whitecross

TV & RADIO
Check the AFL Broadcast Guide

BETTING
SportsBet Odds: Sydney V Hawthorn $2.08 V $1.75

FORM & HISTORY
Sydney Swans 64 wins, Hawthorn 80 wins, two draws

Last time: Hawthorn 10.19 (79) d Sydney Swans 11.11 (77), round 10, 2010 at MCG

Sydney Swans: LWWLL
Hawthorn Hawks: WLWDL

STATS
SYDNEY SWANS PLAYER STATS - 2010 Averages up to Round 18

AFL LADDER
Check out the Bailey AFL Ladder Predictor for the latest info


PREVIEW

Sydney and Hawthorn will lock horns on Saturday afternoon for an old fashioned stoush.

With difficult games against Fremantle and the Doggies to come, this game is a must win for Sydney if they are to stay in contention for a finals berth.
For the Hawks it is a case of deja-vu from last week. They once again face a bogey side on a traditional bogey ground.

Hawthorn have only produced one victory from their previous eight trips to the Sydney Cricket Ground but did knock off the Swans, in a tight game earlier this season in Melbourne.

Hawthorn enters this game on the back of a disappointing and potentially costly loss to Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium last week. With that loss went any chance of a top four spot.

Cyril Rioli will miss the next two weeks on the back of a suspension for an uncharacteristic snap just before three quarter time.

His loss will hurt them as he has added genuine pace to a midfield which whilst classy and tough, did lack a bit of leg speed.

Hodge was well held last week, and will be keen to atone on Saturday, so expect a big game from the Brownlow contender.

Franklin?s movement, marking and presence are as prominent as ever, but he needs to keep his head.
In the last two weeks, he has given away 7 free kicks and 5 fifty metre penalties and that is the kind of thing that can cost a team games.

Roughead had a quiet one last week after a solid couple of weeks, and Osborne and Young are providing plenty of goals in general play.

Their defence last week had its worst collective game in some time, with Gilham, Stratton and Murphy all lowering their colours but this Sydney forward line has struggled to hit the scoreboard over recent weeks and whilst tricky shouldn't stretch them too much.

Simon Taylor got through his VFL game well last week but I'd expect the club to persist with the Renouf/Skipper combination at least for the time being as it offers them far more versatility around the ground.

On the positive for Hawthorn, Birchall, Mitchell, Ellis, Young, Bateman, Burgoyne and Lewis are all contributing and playing good, consistent football.

An important area of focus is the 'contested ball'. Hawthorn has averaged 15 more contested possessions then their opponents over the last six weeks and this is also an area the Swans thrive on.

Sydney concedes the fewest stoppage first possessions of any club, but has slipped badly in the past fortnight.

In the last two weeks Sydney has averaged 56 tackles a game which is about 9 below their season average.

They need to rediscover their trademark pressure skills otherwise the season will disappear before they know it.

Foot skills have also fallen away for the Swans. They conceded 9 goals from turnovers against the slick Cats and 10 against the Dees the week before.

Hawthorn is another team with very good foot skills and they will slaughter Sydney if they falter again.

Adam Goodes remains a shining light for the Swans, and McGlynn will be keen to impress against his old side.

Jesse White struggled again last week to provide a tall option for the Swans makeshift forward line. They will have to persist and hope he turns the corner.

Much like Hawthorn, Sydney generates a lot of run off half back through Nick Malceski, Rhyce Shaw, Tadgh Kennelly and Marty Mattner so the order of the day will be to free them up and release them into space.

Ted Richards and Heath Grundy appear set to get the big jobs on Franklin and Roughead, and they are really feeling the absence of Lewis Roberts Thompson and Craig Bolton.

Sydney will need to drop a few numbers back as they are both very dangerous match-ups for the Swans.

Mattner should get Osborne, although Osborne might be given a negating role on Malceski as he has done similar in recent weeks to good effect.

Gibson or Stratton will more then likely take Goodes. Whilst Gilham will take White and I suspect Guerra might get Ryan O'Keefe.

Moore might tag Hodge, or perhaps Mitchell in midfield but looking across the board, this Swans side is a bit younger in 2010, and I think, lacks the spread of options across the board to match it with the competitions better sides.

Hawthorn, despite last week's loss, are still a top side and I think Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Young, Osborne offer too much talent spread for Sydney to contain.

The Swans chances of winning will improve if they can tie up Hawthorn in the clearances and control the tempo of the game.

Thanks to Darren Parkin of Dashersport for the preview. Be sure to check out his Facebook page for previews on other AFL games being played this round.


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With Bird, Smithy and LRT probably available next week we could "Rest" ROK, McVeigh and Shaw without exposing the Kids.

[ugg]

Smiffy is a maybe and lrt a maybe for the following week. Not sure about bird

[liz]

I'd be surprised to see Bird come straight back in. You have to wonder how, if his injury was a recurrence of foot stress fracture issues, he is ready to resume so quickly.

Smith and LRT are monties to come straight back in if they're ready - but let's hope they really are ready. I hope that at least one, maybe even two, of TDL, Vez or Johnston gets a go. Given that a certain number of senior spots are reserved for unfit/out-of-form veterans, expect Meredith to make way for someone.

[Matt79]

I'd be surprised to see Bird come straight back in. You have to wonder how, if his injury was a recurrence of foot stress fracture issues, he is ready to resume so quickly.

Smith and LRT are monties to come straight back in if they're ready - but let's hope they really are ready. I hope that at least one, maybe even two, of TDL, Vez or Johnston gets a go. Given that a certain number of senior spots are reserved for unfit/out-of-form veterans, expect Meredith to make way for someone.

Just watched Roosy's press conference after the match last night. He said Smith was a chance to come back in next week but LRT still another week away.

I'd like to see LJ get his chance next week a long with with TDL or Vez. We need a little mork spark and a couple of forward options to assist.

[teddys mum]

This is a must win which makes dropping the obviously injured Macca and ROK risky but maybe necessary, and Swans could probably drop a couple on form too - Either way I'd like to see Rohan and/or TDL get a run.

[liz]

This is a must win which makes dropping the obviously injured Macca and ROK risky but maybe necessary, and Swans could probably drop a couple on form too - Either way I'd like to see Rohan and/or TDL get a run.

Why Rohan?

[Bas]

WE will still be in the top 8 if we lose again next week.

[ugg]

Smith will be an important in. The job he did on Luke Hodge earlier this year was very good. Kane Cornes's shutdown job on Hodge yesterday went a long way to Port winning the game. If Smith isn't fit the perhaps the coaches will have o look at McVeigh, considering he's not doing much in an offensive role

The other interesting decision is whether Kirk will go Mitchell again. He hardly started in the center square if at all and that's where Mitchell will be. He blanketed Mitchell for tree quarters earlierthis year but unfortunately Mitchell broke free in the last and Kirk couldnt keep up. Perhaps on the smaller ground it won't be as much of an issue

[teddys mum]

Why Rohan?

When compared with some of the other newbies he is calm under pressure, can put a defensive tackle on, seems to read the play pretty well and provides effective disposal

[Melbournehammer]

I'd be surprised to see Bird come straight back in. You have to wonder how, if his injury was a recurrence of foot stress fracture issues, he is ready to resume so quickly.

Smith and LRT are monties to come straight back in if they're ready - but let's hope they really are ready. I hope that at least one, maybe even two, of TDL, Vez or Johnston gets a go. Given that a certain number of senior spots are reserved for unfit/out-of-form veterans, expect Meredith to make way for someone.

Having paid a fair bit of attention to Liz's posts over the last couple of years i am shocked at the level of cynicism associated with this post.


Can't disagree mind.

[top40]

WE will still be in the top 8 if we lose again next week.

Correct, but only a short term position. The Swans really must win 2 of their last 4 games to safely assured of a place in September. I actually think that on form and with the draw, the Dees are the real danger, despite being still a fair way behind.

So other than the Gabba game against the Lions, Sydney's best chance comes against Hawthorn at the SCG. No Rioli, (very likely to be suspended) will make a difference. (Although I now think that the Swans are a real $3 chance of upsetting the Dockers at Subi in Round 20 for a number of reasons that I will not trouble this particular thread.)

[liz]

When compared with some of the other newbies he is calm under pressure, can put a defensive tackle on, seems to read the play pretty well and provides effective disposal

He's also spent the past month not playing, due to injury, and is clearly not match fit.