http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/spo...-1226130034632
I've been waiting for these articles to appear for a week or so now. So can he do it? I think he can given his final 4 games are likely maximum games. Will the Murphy v Judd contest hurt both of their chances? Thoughts? I think Goodes is already one of the greatest, but this would lift him into the stratosfear!
follow me on twitter harbourviewsafl
Love it - exactly what he strikes into opposition coaches.Originally Posted by andyn
He reminds him of the guys, close-set, slow, and never rattled, who were play-makers on the team. (John Updike, seeing Josh Kennedy in a crystal ball)
QUOTE:
Judd is unlikely to poll any votes in the final month of the season and this has left betting agency sportsbet.com.au extremely nervous.
The bookie paid out on Judd winning the award at the start of last month.
It conducted its own phantom count and had Goodes finishing just two votes behind Carlton star.
"We have had plenty of movement on Adam Goodes and are starting to regret paying out on Judd," the agency's Haydn Lane said.
Why would you pay out early?
Cheap advertising campaign.
Reckon he's some chance of polling 15 votes in the last 6 games. If he goes anywhere near that, he's a real chance.
Bloods
"Lockett is the best of all time" - Robert Harvey, Darrel Baldock, Nathan Burke, Kevin Bartlett, Bob Skilton
The theory behind the early payouts is that the money will be reinvested in another bet with the same agency.
And the man who started it all, the Schneiderman . . . . .
Yes Goodsey is a great chance especially considering the stellar form he's been in at the end of the season.
I think Juddy has been a little over-hyped - I'd put some cash on Goodsey and also Big Cox, who's had a great season and will certainly pull in a lot of umpires votes.
Saw this, this morning here http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-...-1226130219183
Either the way and it will be another triple brownlow medallist.
Let's hope it's ours.
The unknown with Judd is how many votes Murphy, in particular, will take off Judd in the first half of the season. Even though everyone was hyperventillating over Judd's 3rd Brownlow by around halfway through the season, Murphy was actually ahead of him in most media awards and the coaches' award.
Goodes should pick up a smattering of votes early in the season. He wasn't as dominant as he has been in the last month, but he was still in very good form. He did go a bit quiet in the middle part of the season, before his recent onslaught. And similar to the Judd situation, where media pundits assume he will poll top votes because he has historically attracted top votes from the umpires, will Goodes lose votes to Mumford over the last month, and maybe McGlynn in the Cats game too?
I'm trying not to get carried away by his chances. I'm assuming the early talk on Judd was accurate and, thinking back to watching some of those early games, Judd was outstanding in some of them and CLEARLY better than Murphy in practically all of them.
My early season memory of Goodes is scratchy. Here are the stats (again, not a great indicator, especially for Goodes, but worth a look anyway):
R1 v Melb - 14 touches, 2 goals (O'Keefe had 31 and should get 3); R1 v Ess - 24 touches, 1 goal (a chance, with O'Keefe (27), Bolton (25, 3 goals) and Watson (24) challenging); R3 v WC - 21 touches, 3 goals (again a chance, against Jack (23) and Priddis (27)); R4 v Gee - 23 touches, 1 goal (unlikely in a loss, with Chapman (27 and 2 goals), Johnson (24), and Kennedy (29) possibly voting); R5 - Bye; R6 v Carl - 13 touches (nothing); R7 v WB - 24 touches, 1 goal (maybe, against O'Keefe (27 and 2 goals), Boyd (33), Cooney (27) and Griffen (27) - winning might help him here); R8 v PA - 27 touches, 2 goals (good chance to vote in big win, with Bolton (33), Kennedy (31) and McVeigh (29) touching it more); R9 v Haw - 21 touches (big loss, Birchall (30), Franklin (28 and 6 goals), Mitchell (28), Sewell (28)); R10 v NM - 19 touches, 2 goals (may scrape in for one, but Swallow (28), Kennelly (27), O'Keefe (26), Wells (26) touched it more); R11 v BL - 19 touches, 2 goals (quiet in a big win, Bolton (35), O'Keefe (27), Bird (26), Kennedy (25)...many others in front in this game); R12 v Rich - 10 touches (forget it); R13 v Carl - 18 touches, 2 goals (big loss, again no chance); R14 v Coll - 18 touches, 3 goals (goals may help, loss won't, Cloke (6 goals), Swan (33), O'Keefe (23 and 2) in front of him maybe); R15 v Ade - 19 touches, 1 goal (again in a loss, McVeigh (28), O'Keefe (26 and 1), Thompson (26), Vince (24) more likely); R16 v GC - 20 touches, 2 goals (maybe, but O'Keefe (31), McVeigh (27 and 3), Parker (26 and 2) in front); R17 v Fre - 17 touches, 2 goals (Hannebery (24 and 2), Kennedy (24), McVeigh (24 and 1), Broughton (31), Fyfe (31 and 1), Lower (30 and 1) more likely); R18 v WB - 34 touches, 2 goals (big chance for 3, Jack (34), and Hannebery (30) may also vote); R19 - Bye; R20 v Ess - 29 touches, 3 goals (CLEARLY best on ground, Watson (31) the only player to touch it more); R21 v Rich - 16 touches, 1 goal (no chance, big loss); R22 v St K - 21 touches, 1 goal (maybe, with Shaw (29), Hannebery (27), McVeigh (27) and others getting more of the ball); R23 v Gee - 30 touches, 1 goal (greatr chance for 3, Chaw (26), O'Keefe (24), McGlynn (22) and Mumford (22 and lots of hitouts) other possibilities; R24 v BL - 29 touches, 4 goals (should get 3, Shaw (30), Kennedy (29), O'Keefe (28) getting lots of it, too).
Basically tells me nothing, but may show he's not a real chance. What it DOES show is that Ryan O'Keefe has had a brilliant year, possibly winning his second B&F!
I heard from a few Fox Sports analysts that Gary Ablett will get too many 1 votes to win, I think he is a chance to steal a number of 2 votes, including 3 * 3 votes int their wins. I wouldn't be ruiling him out.
Goodes will get a heap of 3's, just really depends if he can compliment them with some 2s and 1s, he is lucky that umpires notice him and he probably doesn't have to always be best on field to get votes although Mumford could steal a number of votes off him (if they have noticed him in terms of votes) Judd's issue will be the real emergence of Murphy, Gibbs et al this year to the elite level, but again, depends on what umpires are really noticing and bothering to notice.
As much as I'd like Goodesy to win it, the cynic in me thinks this could be a concocted story to entice people to lose their money betting on Goodes.
Last edited by lwoggardner; 6th September 2011 at 03:19 PM. Reason: typo
Don't forget Goodesy's mother dreamt another win.
Wild speculation, unsubstantiated rumours, silly jokes and opposition delight in another's failures is what makes an internet forum fun.
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