I only had time for this very brief preview, but I?m sure others will make up for it with their wit, insight and photos of near-naked Swans.
Last three games:
R5 April29, 2012, Aurora Stadium
Sydney 2.2 5.4 9.7 16.10 (106)
Hawthorn 5.3 8.6 8.6 10.9 (69)
Tackles: 84-73
R22 August 25, 2012, SCG
Sydney 4.3 8.5 10.7 14.11 (95)
Hawthorn 0.1 7.6 10.11 15.12 (102)
Tackles: 81-56
Grand Final, Sept 29, MCG
Sydney 1.4 7.4 10.5 14.7
Hawthorn 4.5 4.6 9.10 11.15
Tackles: 110-84
From the Swans website
Talking Points:4. The Swans have won more contested possessions than any other team in the AFL so far this year. Hardnut midfielders Josh Kennedy (100) and Ryan O'Keefe (93) have led the way, ranking second and third in the League respectively, behind only Gold Coast captainGary Ablett (101). Hawthorn ranks sixth overall, but does not have an individual player in the top 20.
5. On the flipside, Hawthorn has the second- and third-ranked players for uncontested possessions. Grant Birchall (124) and Sam Mitchell (116), who have both been important playmakers from half-back, are behind only Kane Cornes (140). Nick Malceski (97), ranked 13th overall, is the Swans' uncontested possession leader. He ranks No.1 in the AFL for rebound 50s, having cleared the ball from defense 13 more times than any other player.
1. The standout pattern from last year's games was the pendulum swings.
R5: Swans went from 20 points down to 37-point winners. 57-point turnaround.
R22: Hawks were (IIRC) 31 points down, won by 7. 38-point turnaround
GF: Swans went from 19 down to lead by 28. Hawks then got out to 12-point lead. Swans won by 10. 109 points in turnarounds!
2. Buddy
Not kicking goals, but laid some crook tackles last week. Which Buddy will turn up?
3. Swans forward line
Sydney's mids will kick goals, but the Swans can't win unless Jetta and Reid continue where they left off last week.
4. Hawks' defence
The Swans and Crows found a way through last year. The presence of Lake and a fit Hodge makes it much more imposing.
5. Injuries
Both sides hit by some big outs since the GF. Suckling, Guerra, Rioli, Shoey for the Hawks. Mumford, LRT, Johnson, Shaw for the Swans.
On the upside for the Swans, Mumford carried an injury into the final and wasn't hugely influential. But let's hope Pyke doesn?t regret saying this: ''Sometimes I think we get to bully on others who go lone out in the ruck.''
WHY THE SWANS CAN WIN
It took Hawthorn 3? quarters to shake off the depleted Crows (with assist from Worst Umpiring Decision of the Year)
Swans mids are running hot
Reid and Jetta have found their mojo
After laying 47 tackles against Geelong, the Swans? defensive game is back
WHY THE HAWKS CAN WIN
It?s their turn. Last four games have been Haw-Syd-Haw-Syd
Are in good form. Have played last year?s top sides and only lost one ? Swans have been tested just once so far and found wanting
Hodge is fit and in form and Brian Lake has stiffened up the defence
R.E.V.E.N.G.E.
PREDICTION
Depends on which Buddy and which Swans team shows up. If Sydney bring their defensive game and don't allow Hawthorn their uncontested ball use, Swans will win. Sydney by 5.
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