Originally Posted by
iigrover
Mug,
I see how you can be confused with this. It took me a while to get my head around the complexities of the new draft bidding system as well.
It seems to be the big mistake people are making is that look at the draft order base on the naorrow lense of one club, one player, one draft pick. e.g. in your example you only looked at the impact of the bid on Melbourne, Mills, pick 3.
In fact, to understand my point you need to to look at what happens to the whole draft order on Melbourne.
That is, expand your analysis to look at the full impact of the order of all draft picks due to a bid for Mills at 3 AND the next nearest academy picks either side of pick 3 on Sydney and Melbourne and the Academy clubs either side THEN (and most importantly) compare that to the impact on all of those clubs of changing those academy bids by one place.
Ill try to give an overly simplified example to explain my point.
Lets say:
Club A has pick 1 in the draft worth 3000 points, and picks 19, 37,55, 73, and so on.
Club B (Academy Club) has picks 26 (756 points), 27 (703), 34 (542), 35 (522), 36 (502)
Club C (Academy Club) has picks 7 (1644 points), pick 38 (465), pick 39 (446), pick 40 (429), 61 (135)
Club B's Academy player is the better than Club C's, who are both the best players in the draft.
Most people current thinking is that Club A will pick Club B's Academy player (as the best player in the draft), which will get matched by Club B. It Pick 1 will become Pick 2, then it will use its pick 2 will bid for Club C's academy player, which will get matched by Club C, then its Pick 2 will become pick 3.
However this thinking is wrong - because you need to look at the impact on all picks on what Club A's bid order will be NOT the marginal quality of the player.
(Without going into the mathematics) The strategy for Club A of picking the best academy player first would leave it with the following picks:
3, 20, 34, 52, 71.
However, if it was to pick the second best academy player before the best academy player, they would be left with picks:
3,19,35,52,71
So by bidding for the second best academy player first would result in a better outcome for it (in this example a higher comparative second round pick at the expense of a lower third round pick).
So dont assume Academy kids will get picked 'in the order of their worth'.
They will get picked in the order that results in the 'best post bid outcome' for the bidding non-academy club.
Confused yet :-)
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