draft !

[Mug Punter]

So the AFLs draft guru in his final phantom draft has managed to elevate Mills from 3 to 2 despite him hardly pulling on a boot this year.

How does this magic happen? You don't play but keep leapfrogging players who are having great seasons?

This does of course happen when you work for the VFL and are told what to do by Eddie and Newbold! Sheesh, this is just getting ridiculous. If Mills gets bid on at 1 or 2 I will go berserk as it will only happen because the VFL issued the dodgy bidding edict a few days ago that was entirely about clubs NOT bidding when the VFL reckons they should and said nothing about vexatious bidding to push up a players price.

It's beyond pathetic what is going on. But there is no way that Brisbane will be told what t do by the AFL after the way they have been rodgered over by HQ the last 10 years. No way will it happen. Mills going at three is fine but I'd like Roos to pass and then get stuck into the likes of Eddie who question his credibility, after all he did bid on Heeney at #2 last year so he hardly has done us any favours in this area before.

All the academy teams can do is play the system with a straight bat and let the system evolve, it is fundamentally a sound system but I just get so nervous when we have a jellyback like Gillon in charge

[ernie koala]

I posted this in the 'Josh Dunkley' thread replying to a post, thought it would be relevant here also.

By my calculations....If Mills goes at pick #3 then we have to couch up 1787 points (includes 20% discount)

We have picks # 33 = 563, # 36= 502, #37= 483, # 44=362, #54=220, #69=49, #72=19

So by giving away 33,36, 37, 54, 72...equals exactly 1787

That leaves us picks 44, 69 and Mills....Pretty good I'd think.

[Doctor]

It's beyond pathetic what is going on. But there is no way that Brisbane will be told what t do by the AFL after the way they have been rodgered over by HQ the last 10 years. No way will it happen. Mills going at three is fine but I'd like Roos to pass and then get stuck into the likes of Eddie who question his credibility, after all he did bid on Heeney at #2 last year so he hardly has done us any favours in this area before.

All the academy teams can do is play the system with a straight bat and let the system evolve, it is fundamentally a sound system but I just get so nervous when we have a jellyback like Gillon in charge

Heeney was a genuine #2 pick though. I don't think the evidence is there that Mills is. Having just read Emma Quayle's book, it talks about how Jake Lever dropped down to #14 when he had a year out in the 18s with an ACL. This is purported to be a weaker draft than last year but there's no way Mills is a genuine #2 based on this year's evidence. Any club picking him that high up would be taking the p1ss.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Whilst I think you are right re telegraphing our intentions I think that we have made the fair assumption that Weitering and Schache are absolutely locked in and that we have planned with the assumption that Mills may go at 3. In fact I'd now like him to go there just to put and end to some of the pathetic belly aching from Melbourne.

No way will Brisbane not select Schache and Carlton would be very silly indeed to test our resolve with a vexatious bid for Mills at #1. Think about what could happen there - they get a player who clearly doesn't want to go there and Weitering goes to the Dees at #3.

If I was the Swans I'd seriously consider letting Mills go at #1 simply to prove a point but it would have to be in concert with Mills' response. Imagine the response in Carlton if he says publicly that he believes it was a vexatious bid and that he will give a 100% guarantee that he will request a trade at the end of 2016?

And as for the Plan B, I'd happily have us play the odds and draft players at 33,35,36 and 37. Look at some of the talent we have taken at that level in previous drafts....

We can't let him go now that we have traded any worthwhile picks in a shallow draft. We'd be left with nothing. I'd sooner get Mills and nothing else.

[Mug Punter]

We can't let him go now that we have traded any worthwhile picks in a shallow draft. We'd be left with nothing. I'd sooner get Mills and nothing else.

I don't know, there's decent value in the second round for sure and we'd be taking four picks.

I suspect that is what will happen but part of me would really like us to call any bluff from Carlton as a matter of principle. I guess it really does depend on how good the Swans believe he is, they'll ultimately make a football based decision but there is an element that they need to select Mills to make the system work.

With free agency and the ability to upgrade rookies etc you'd almost take a Heeney/Mills every year supplemented by a second pick circa pick 40, a late speculator and a rookie upgrade. Add in a free agent or traded player and that accommodates our average 5 shown the out door every year

[Ludwig]

We can't let him go now that we have traded any worthwhile picks in a shallow draft. We'd be left with nothing. I'd sooner get Mills and nothing else.

Brisbane have already indicated that they are going to take Schache and not bid on an academy player to improve their later position in the draft. So they and everyone else in the world expect Carlton to take Weitering. For Carlton to bid on Mills would be moronic on so many accounts, it's hard to list them all. To think that the first act that Carlton do with a new coach and list manager is to embroil themselves in any risk or controversy would be mad. And who would save Silvagni from the raging mob of Carlton fans coming to string him up if the Swans pass and Carlton hand Weitering to Melbourne and the first thing Callum Millls says when he walks on the podium as the #1 pick is 'thanks for the $10 grand bonus money and I can't wait to be traded back to Sydney'. Of course he wouldn't say that, but surely that would be the constant speculation for next year or two and I would think he would end up in Sydney for a relatively cheap price in due course.

I personally think Sydney should not match vexatious bids, which this one would be. Even though they AFL have not come out and commented directly on vexatious bidding, they have said they want clubs to bid for academy players at their fair value and everyone would believe this would not be the case if Carlton bid on Mills. Carlton don't need that kind of scrutiny. They will have enough without adding this.


On other draft matters, Big Footy draft guru Knightmare, who is pretty good at these things, has Melbourne bidding for Mills at pick 3 but then has Sydney's second pick at 41. I don't know how he calculates this as the most likely scenario I come up with is pick 46 if Mills goes at 3. Knightmare has the Swans taken mature age (22) KPD Marcus Adams from WA. There seems to be a fair number of decent mature aged KPDs in this draft that are likely to be available in the 40s and 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if we took one now that Dunkley looks to be out of the picture. Our 3rd pick should end up in the early 50 and hopefully Kinnear has uncovered a hidden gem.

Oleg Markov, son of pole vaulting champ Dmitri was passed over in last year's draft, even thought he was rated by many as high as a second round pick. He's had a good year and should get a go in this year's. Perhaps he's a bit too much like Towers and Rose, but he's a clever half forward, athletic and can hit the scoreboard. I don't know why he wasn't rated by list managers. Hisham Kerbatieh, a small forward with a strong accurate kick, is another one I like for our 2nd or 3rd pick.

With so many good midfielders on our list and the ability of the academy to produce a good one every year (perhaps that will be Jake Brown next year), as well as not many retirements on the horizon, I wouldn't be drafting any more mids late in the draft. The chance of success is so low, it doesn't seem worth it. I'd stock up on KPPs and hope that the weight of number alone will produce a good one.

[Auntie.Gerald]

no more outside players for the Swans from this Draft ?

[ernie koala]

Whatever the Swans end up paying for Mills, for a club like ours who rarely get early picks,

it still a big advantage being able to pick up a player regarded as one of the best in the draft.

[dimelb]

Whatever the Swans end up paying for Mills, for a club like ours who rarely get early picks,

it still a big advantage being able to pick up a player regarded as one of the best in the draft.

And, in the end, the point of the whole points-and-places rigmarole. After initial objections I now see it as a reasonable way of benefiting from the Academy while still paying our way.

[Mug Punter]

Brisbane have already indicated that they are going to take Schache and not bid on an academy player to improve their later position in the draft. So they and everyone else in the world expect Carlton to take Weitering. For Carlton to bid on Mills would be moronic on so many accounts, it's hard to list them all. To think that the first act that Carlton do with a new coach and list manager is to embroil themselves in any risk or controversy would be mad. And who would save Silvagni from the raging mob of Carlton fans coming to string him up if the Swans pass and Carlton hand Weitering to Melbourne and the first thing Callum Millls says when he walks on the podium as the #1 pick is 'thanks for the $10 grand bonus money and I can't wait to be traded back to Sydney'. Of course he wouldn't say that, but surely that would be the constant speculation for next year or two and I would think he would end up in Sydney for a relatively cheap price in due course.

I personally think Sydney should not match vexatious bids, which this one would be. Even though they AFL have not come out and commented directly on vexatious bidding, they have said they want clubs to bid for academy players at their fair value and everyone would believe this would not be the case if Carlton bid on Mills. Carlton don't need that kind of scrutiny. They will have enough without adding this.


On other draft matters, Big Footy draft guru Knightmare, who is pretty good at these things, has Melbourne bidding for Mills at pick 3 but then has Sydney's second pick at 41. I don't know how he calculates this as the most likely scenario I come up with is pick 46 if Mills goes at 3. Knightmare has the Swans taken mature age (22) KPD Marcus Adams from WA. There seems to be a fair number of decent mature aged KPDs in this draft that are likely to be available in the 40s and 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if we took one now that Dunkley looks to be out of the picture. Our 3rd pick should end up in the early 50 and hopefully Kinnear has uncovered a hidden gem.

Oleg Markov, son of pole vaulting champ Dmitri was passed over in last year's draft, even thought he was rated by many as high as a second round pick. He's had a good year and should get a go in this year's. Perhaps he's a bit too much like Towers and Rose, but he's a clever half forward, athletic and can hit the scoreboard. I don't know why he wasn't rated by list managers. Hisham Kerbatieh, a small forward with a strong accurate kick, is another one I like for our 2nd or 3rd pick.

With so many good midfielders on our list and the ability of the academy to produce a good one every year (perhaps that will be Jake Brown next year), as well as not many retirements on the horizon, I wouldn't be drafting any more mids late in the draft. The chance of success is so low, it doesn't seem worth it. I'd stock up on KPPs and hope that the weight of number alone will produce a good one.

I'm with you on the Mills front Ludwig, carlton should be expose and hung out to dry if they make a vexatious bid for Mills. The idea of them handing Weitering to Melbourne on a platter is just too funny to contemplate. I also would expect us to accept that Pick #3 for Mills is something we accept.

See this whole concept of academy bidding requires good faith by clubs. We need clubs to bid on players but clubs also need to know that they will be punished for vexatious bidding - the AFL will not do anything so the only people that can are the academy clubs by calling bluffs. As we've discussed this will usually not be such an issue because it only really affects top 10 picks and as academy numbers start to increase the issue will fade as we will simply pass on one and pick another.

I see us passing on Mills at Number 1 as maybe losing a battle to win the war. And the fallout from Carlton would be incredible to watch.

I am also very comfortable with us taking a mature age KPD at 41 instead of Dunkley. With Ted retiring at the end of next year and Reg a couple of years after it is an area we need to invest in.

[Mug Punter]

And, in the end, the point of the whole points-and-places rigmarole. After initial objections I now see it as a reasonable way of benefiting from the Academy while still paying our way.

And hopefully it provides certainty.

My only concern now is that the next battle front will be on the Riverina and in many ways I agree that this should not be a recruitment zone for GWS - I guess they don't have F/S but they have had plenty of assistance. My concern is that the AFL will cut our zone rather than getting GWS to work as they should be on Western Sydney and ACT.

I'd like to think this is a line in the sand for the four northern clubs and that they will hold firm.

[liz]

I don't expect either Carlton or Brisbane to bid for Mills, but I suspect the club would match regardless. Especially if Dunkley's off the table. Here's what we'll be getting.

Sydney Swans set on securing prodigious talent Callum Mills at AFL draft