2016 Expectations & Predictions

[royboy42]

I predict that we will regret the loss of Doc Nathan Gibbs during this season.

Already concerned about Rohan and McVeigh continuing injuries...zip re Melican..Reid shadowing the team somewhere, but who knows? Little said re Ted...

[Mug Punter]

I also mainly agree with Liz, but I'd add a few more predictions:
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
2. Teddy's on a one year contract. It won't be renewed. Subject to fitness, he'll play Round 1 v Collingwood, but Talia will start in Round 2 v Carlton, and the plan will be to get as much game time into him as possible, so that he is first choice by the middle of the year. Ted will help coach.
3. In the same vein, we'll get as much game time into the youngsters, Papley, Hewitt, Leonardis, Rose, etc, particularly against Carlton, Essendon, Brisbane etc.

I see this as a year of consolidation, like taking a big breath before a big effort in 17 and 18.

Nevertheless I can't remember being as excited before Round 1. I'm particularly excited by Mills, Hewitt, Papley (will I be the first to call him the Smear after he cleans someone up in a tackle?) and Dawson.

The players we have obtained are in many ways better than those who have left.
Pike's knees were shot. Shaw only came good after the relief of announcing his retirement. Bird didn't play. Jetta was disinterested. Goodsey is the greatest champ, but time was against him. Still had flashes of brilliance, though.

I don't rate BJ or X.
Rose needs some muscle, he's too slight.

Anywhere between 5 and 8.

I'm in agreement with most of your points and Liz's well considered post.

I actually feel quite nervous about this season because for the first time in ages I really do fear we could miss the 8, if it goes badly then it could go terribly pear-shaped.

A fit and healthy Buddy would help enormously. The main thing is his health long term as he has a few good years left in him but for me it is simple, Buddy kicks 50+ goals this year and we're up there with a chance. Any less and it's in the lap of the gods.

And could that mean Tippett finally delivering. I rated him last season in the role he did for the team but on the coin he is on we expect more. I know this is unfair on him but for the money we pay Tippett we could probably have Mummy, a third KPD (possibly even Frawley as we'd probably avoided that criminal trade ban) and maybe an additional squad player.

In terms of our next generation we are banking on both Mills and Heeney being 200 gamers and for mine they look like crackers.

It's a big season for our fringe players too. AA, X and Harry must surely be on notice that they need to step up this year and earn a contract, I'm not sure any of them have what it takes.

Towers have the potential to really be a handful but he needs to deliver consistently this year or he too could be trade bait. And I'll include Sam Reid here too, for mine he has only shown us glimpses, he's not a young lad anymore. Rohan likewise notwithstanding the injuries he has endured.

I expect our unsung players like Smith, Laidler, Lloyd and Rampe to continue to do the business this year but I'm concerned about where the new unheralded players will come from (probably because they are still unheralded I guess) - Papley I like, Newman I think is 12 months away and whilst Dawson has a nice kick neither him or Leonardis look near ready for AFL football.

Our long term future looks pretty good when you see the talent we now have locked in to long tern deals but there are a few question marks for mine. Mitchell has a real chance to play every game and stamp himself as our best inside mid this year and I think he may do it - whether we can afford to keep him is another matter and the fact he is the only required player coming off contract now is telling. I'm assuming we want to keep him and are seeing what we have in the kitty when the new CBA is announced later this year. I guess we'd get very good trade value from a Carlton if we did decide to trade. We haven't had to make a sacrificial lamb to the salary cap yet for Buddy (Jed doesn't count) but I fear Tom may have to take one for the team.

The backline is very very vulnerable. By the grace of god we haven't had either Ted or Reg out lately but we really miss that third tall a la LRT. Reid we don't seem to knows what to do with and I doubt Talia is that good. I see no prospects coming through so I guess we'll be going to the draft, trade and free agency tables at season end. I personally think we need three (one a long term KPD in their mid 20s, one for experienced cover and a first round draft pick).

[Crusty]

I agree Mug.
However, I see Reid in the backline. We need him there more than on the forward line. His goal kicking is rubbish and in the back line with the 10m rule he can hand off to a runner. He can become a defender like his brother. A settled role every week will help.
Buddy and Tippet/Sinclair will take the two best defenders. Tippet was impressive last year, and Buddy seems to be jumping out of his skin. They will get their goals. The key is Towers. He needs to make his presence felt. I'd also like to see Heeney and Parker rotating on the HFF. I reckon it's the smaller forwards who need to do the damage. 2012 we had no full forward, but multiple goal scorers each game. I'd like to see us get back to that. In other words, I don't want to rely on 50+ from Buddy.
Re Mitchell, he's a keeper. I put my faith in Pridham on this.

[Ludwig]

I also agree with Liz and others and my expectations as to ladder position are modest. I also find it to be a particularly hard to predict how most teams will go this year. What I would like to see is the development of our younger and fringe players. I think we should give Talia a decent go as he is the most likely to succeed Ted at this stage.

One thing I would like to add is the destiny of our 4th year players, or more precisely our 2012 draft. All 12 players from that draft, including Harry Cunningham who was upgraded to the senior list, are still playing AFL footy at some club. Not one has dropped out of AFL footy.

• Membrey and Dick have gone to other clubs.
• Marsh had dropped back to the rookie list.
• It's a big year for our 1st pick Dean Towers who we will look to as a link man, especially if Reid is out for any extended period of time.
• It's time for Tippett to become the complete player in handling the both his ruck role and a key target when forward.
• As for our 6 rookie selections in 2012, Lloyd, XR, Rampe, Robinson, BJ and Naismith, we got a hell of a lot more than you would expect from a rookie draft. They will all be looking for big years, as well as upgraded rookie Cunningham, to show they've improved. A few will be fighting to stay on our list. Our longer term prospects may well rest on how well this group does.
• A thumbs up to Kinnear Beatson, especially given that our 1st pick was #22.

[dimelb]

I predict that we will regret the loss of Doc Nathan Gibbs during this season.

Already concerned about Rohan and McVeigh continuing injuries...zip re Melican..Reid shadowing the team somewhere, but who knows? Little said re Ted...

Word is that the new doctor is a good'un, with a family pedigree in the job - father is a top surgeon.

[Scottee]

This is an exciting time to be a Swans supporter.

I have a feeling that the class of 2016 is going to be fondly remembered. The three H's; Heeney, Hewett and Hannebery, are going to be a really interesting combination along with Rose, Papley and Newman. Sinclair is a clear plus. Towers I think will be really good.I will be hoping to see Talia hit the magical 50 game milestone and suddenly improve vastly. This is also the year for Davis and Aliir come of age too. For the first time in a while we will have 22 players who can twist and turn and chase.

The big issue is going to be the collective impact of so many talented but young players coming up against hardened experienced teams. A plus though, is that Hewett is in his third year at the club and is well drilled in our ways. Similarly for Heeney and Mills. But there is nothing like the big time to find out the weaknesses.It will be really interesting to see.

I don't feel I have the right to expect great things from the club this year. Unfairly targetted by the AFL we have recruited as well as one could hope for and much better than the AFL would have hoped for, but the inability to trade in experienced players is likely to tell.

[Meg]

Does anyone know the name of the new doctor? I'm not aware that he/she has been 'introduced' but I may have missed it.

[Mug Punter]

I enjoyed the round table tonight, a shame that their other panels aren't all so professional. I was surprised by their rating of our list as still being the 4th best in the league and also our draw as 9th hardest was interesting.

I always like Cam Mooney's analysis and I think he hit the nail on the head and basically said we need significantly more our of Reid, Rohan and Tippett.

Forward structure was discussed which seems to align with a lot of our discussions - more flexibility, Buddy up the ground a bit more and Tippett on too much coin and too good to be wasted as a ruckman. I believe we need Buddy and KT to deliver at least 80 goals combined this year. Happy to see him play a bit of ruck but would hope it is closer to 60/40 for Sinclair and him in the ruck.

Defence also given special comment as was our terrible foot skills. I like the idea of McVeigh back on the half back line as a permanent fixture and even the idea of Hanners providing some stability though to be honest I think Mills will do just fine their as his disposal and decision making is just superb for someone that young.

They all seemed pretty bullish about Buddy and I reckon they'd be in the know so that was good to hear. Also like their wraps on our two super kids (Heeney and Mills) who will be something for us to really enjoy over the next few years as they become champions.

Their overall analysis aligned with mine in that I really don't know how we'll go this year but to be top 4 again we'll need a lot of things to go right.

[Plugger46]

Did people miss Tippo's back half of last year? Mooney (and I've heard others say similar things) said he's pretty much done nothing since leaving Adelaide. Yes he's on good money but that's complete crap. He couldn't have done much more in 2015. He was disappointing in 2014 and sensational in 2013.

[Mountain Man]

I think the 90 rotation limit will help our game plan and bring Tippett/Sinclair as a significant weapon.

50 or 60 goals between them working as stay-at-home (resting) full forwards and sharing the hard yards of ruck duties would be a good result. Buddy doing his thing for another 50 goals and you have the basis for some good scores

Then some contribution from a small forward (Heeney Rose or even Papasley?), and the rotating mid field (Parker/Kennedy/Jack/etc).

IMHO, the key is the combination of Tippett and Sinclair with a continuing presence near goal.

[Crusty]

David King pulled up an interesting stat last night: we are 2nd in the league for speed of rebounding, if I remember correctly. When the others expressed surprise he then said we see what we want to see.
Does the speed of rebounding reflect a penchant to bomb it into the forwards?
Is it a good thing, giving the opposition defence no time to organise?
Would it be better to lose some of that speed in return for more considered targeting?
I'm interested to hear your views.

Also, Mooney put Norf at top two and the flag - I just can't see that and reckon they will drop out of the eight.

[barry]

Even a mid table non vic side should expect to win all home games. Then pick up a few weeks on the road against dons, blues, lions...

15 or so wins. In and around 4th spot. Much like last year.