2016 Expectations & Predictions

[Levii3]

Expected wins
Round: 2 (CAR, A), 6(BRI, A), 7(ESS, H), 10(NM, H), 13(MEL, H), 18(CAR, H), 19(FRE, A), 20(POR, H), 21(STK, A), 23(RIC, H)

Tough Call
Round: 1(COL, H), 3(GWS, H), 4(ADE, A), 11(GCS, A), 12(GWS, A), 22(NM, A)
Jeremy Cameron not playing round 3 so one less forward to worry about

Definite Loss
Round: 5(WCE, H), 8(RIC, A), 9(HAW, A), 15(WBD, H), 16(GEE, A), 17(HAW, H)

Expected Ladder Finish/ Wins
Finish 6-10, Wins 10-14
12 or 13 wins will get you into the top 8

Bob Skilton
Hannebery

Brownlow
Dangerfield, Hannebery or Fyfe maybe Cripps or Bont as a smokey

Coleman
?? Anyones guess

Nab Rising Star
Jacob Weiterging or Callum Mills

[Bexl]

Expected wins
Round: 2 (CAR, A), 6(BRI, A), 7(ESS, H), 10(NM, H), 13(MEL, H), 18(CAR, H), 19(FRE, A), 20(POR, H), 21(STK, A), 23(RIC, H)

Tough Call
Round: 1(COL, H), 3(GWS, H), 4(ADE, A), 11(GCS, A), 12(GWS, A), 22(NM, A)
Jeremy Cameron not playing round 3 so one less forward to worry about

Definite Loss
Round: 5(WCE, H), 8(RIC, A), 9(HAW, A), 15(WBD, H), 16(GEE, A), 17(HAW, H)

Expected Ladder Finish/ Wins
Finish 6-10, Wins 10-14
12 or 13 wins will get you into the top 8

Bob Skilton
Hannebery

Brownlow
Dangerfield, Hannebery or Fyfe maybe Cripps or Bont as a smokey

Coleman
?? Anyones guess

Nab Rising Star
Jacob Weiterging or Callum Mills

Expected win freo away Expected loss dogs at home? Are you sure?

[mcs]

Here's my go:

Wins
Round: 2 (CAR, A), 4(ADE, A), 6(BRI, A), 7(ESS, H), 11(GCS, A), 13(MEL, H), 18(CAR, H), 20(POR, H), 21(STK, A)

50/50 games
Round: 1(COL, H), 3(GWS, H), 10(NM, H), 12(GWS, A), 22(NM, A), 15(WBD, H), 23(RIC, H)

Loss
Round: 5(WCE, H), 8(RIC, A), 9(HAW, A), 16(GEE, A), 17(HAW, H) 19(FRE, A),

Expected Ladder Finish/ Wins: Somewhere between 5 and 8, with about 14/15 wins for the year.

Bob Skilton: Hanners - his pre season has been sharp, and I think he will go on from there for a big year.

Brownlow: Fyfe - the love in will continue, Hanners to finish top 3. Anyone but Sam Mitchell please.

Coleman: Josh Kennedy (West Coast version).

Nab Rising Star: Callum Mills - the kid is going to be something special.

Smokie to have a big impact for us: Papley - I really liked what we saw of him in Pre-season, and if they give him a decent chance early on in the season, I think he may soon cement a place in the top 22, as that small forward role is something we desperately need someone to jump into and say 'that's my spot' (Given no doubt Heeney will in time more more into the midfield). Otherwise, if he doesn't get a chance, hopefully Rose will get the chance to build on the good start to his AFL career

Its a big year for - a number of our fringe guys, in particular in my book Towers,Robinson, Marsh, BJ, Cunningham and Rohan. There are spots available in the top 22, but there are clearly several fringe guys that need to really stand up and make their mark, or the end of the road may be not too far off (Especially as we are likely to be busy in the trade period now the VFL trade restrictions are gone.)
- Towers needs to finally really stand up and deliver week in week out. He keeps teasing us at times, but there is only so long that he can be persevered with, and he is not getting any younger.
- Robinson is a fringe player at best in my book, and I don't think he will make it - but hope he proves me wrong.
- BJ shows flashes here and there, but has yet to put a consistent set of form in during the seniors, and needs to do that sooner rather than later.
- Marsh - got the clear warning sign last year, and may not get a chance in seniors if injuries don't play their part, but if it comes, he has to take it.
- Cunningham and Rohan - plenty will disagree with me in this space, and they are pretty safe from the chop come years end - but I really feel its a big year for both. Cunningham needs to find consistency and an ability to impact more on games, and Rohan has to get his body right and really prove he can pull out more than the odd top shelf game (like the NM prelim final in 2014) - we can't wait forever for him to get it right, and we desperately need him to really find rhythm at the top level.

On their last legs? Teddy and Ben Mcglynn. Father Time seems to be catching up with Teddy - but we need one big final year from him this year if possible. McGlynn has to get his body right asap, or else the end of the road may come quicker than we thought it would for him - especially if a young guy or two can really stake a claim for a place in the team going forward.

Summary of my view
I think 2016 may be a bit of a hard road for our boys in red and white, given the players we lost over the off season, and the alarming lack of depth we still have. Skills seem to have not increased a great deal from last season on what we've seen in pre-season, and I still think there are fundamental flaws with our gameplan and approach. But a fully fit Buddy all year, the emergence of two young superstars in Mills and Heeney, and hopefully a few surprise packets will mean, alongside the well established players, we will continue to be competitive.

I think we will finish bottom half of the eight, but remain a chance for the 4 if everything goes right - but that will need a great year from Buddy and Tippo, Sinclair to slot in well, Heeney and Mills to star, and most importantly our fringe players to step up hugely. I can't quite see it at this stage, but the Swans have surprised me many a time before, so hoping 2016 is another year like that.

2016 could be a pivotal year for the next few years as well. If the fringe guys don't stand up as we hope and prove they are up to AFL footy, we may see quite a substantial turnover in the trade period - with us recognising the need to do more rebuilding than we hoped (i.e. it may need to encompass more than just looking to plug the holes where older players are going). But if some of them stand up, and we see young guys do well, then we may be in a better position than we think we are.

At the very least, 2016 should be memorable for getting to watch the development of Heeney and Mills. They are both going to be superb players for us, and its so exciting watching the first baby steps of players you know are destined to be in the upper echelon of the AFL (just like in recent years, we've had the pleasure of watching the emergence at a young age of players like Hanners and Parker).

We've been spoilt in the last few years by a flag, another grand final, and several top 4 finishes. This year might not live up to that, but there is still a lot to like and enjoy I feel, and I am looking forward to it, with lower expectations about where the year might end up going, but with hope that we can be surprised. Come on you mighty Swannies!!!

[jono2707]

Anything less than a top 4 finish will be an abject failure - we didn't recruit Buddy so we could make up the numbers in the 8.

[Mug Punter]

I'm predicting bottom of the 8 but hoping for better.

Since when did we have such a sense of entitlement about finishing in the top 4?

[wolftone57]

Anything less than a top 4 finish will be an abject failure - we didn't recruit Buddy so we could make up the numbers in the 8.

The recruiting of Buddy might be the thing that just keeps us from making the top 4. No real trades allowed. Not enough salary cap space. But then again we have recruited good youngsters. Time will tell I think. Everyone talks about Heeney and Mills but two players don't make a side. When we had Diesel, Healy, Mitchell etc playing we had the stars but not enough team to win a premiership.

Team is what it is about and players like Hewett, Papley, Dawson, Towers, Jones, Leonardis, Newman, Talia, Rose, Cunningham, Sinclair, Rohan, Robinson, Aliir, Davis, BJ and X all have to stand up and be counted. Naismith and Galloway are long term prospects. Naismith will play this year and so will Toby I'm sure. Toby was pretty handy in the NAb and the only doubt on him is his lack of pace. But his delivery is generally sound and his tackling is fierce. He can also take a huge mark. Same with Naismith. Both Toby and big Sammy are second, third and fourth effort players, they never give up and tackle, bustle and bludgeon their opposition into submission. They also protect the small players.

What we need to see this year is as many players who looked like they are starting to come on given a chance to prove themselves. Papley, Dawson, Leonardis, Hewett & Newman all showed good composure in the NAB. Composure is an important word. It means they don't panic and they all looked very composed at AFL level. Yes it is only NAB but they were under more pressure than they would have ever been in any other comp and generally acquitted themselves well. BJ & Robbo were a little disappointing.

The NEAFL Trial. Apparently Abe Davis played very well. So did Aliir, Leonardis, Hewett & Newman. didn't see it maybe some of the people who did can report on the best players and hopefuls.

[liz]

My expectations are reasonably modest. A top four spot would surprise me somewhat. This is based on the number of first and second year players who will be filling quite important spots. I am quite bullish about the group - in which I place Jones (technically a 3rd year player but held back by injury), Mills, Heeney, Rose, Papley and Hewett. They are the ones I expect to see decent amounts of senior footy from. Newman, Dawson and maybe even Leonardis might get games here or there, but I think their times will come in future years.

But it doesn't matter how talented that group is - and for Heeney and Mills, in particular, their talent is obvious. They will still take some time. They will have some excellent games and they will struggle to impact in others. We saw it with Heeney last year. For all the media gushing about his potential, and the recognition from the AFL establishment, he still struggled to get into several games. He'll probably do the same this year, and the rest will too.

Having a down year this year isn't a disaster from a Buddy perspective. We still have another six years of his service after this year, of which at least 3 can be expected to be at a very high standard, injury and health permitting. Our core midfield group - Hanners, Parker, Mitchell, Kennedy - is still pretty young, and even Jack and McVeigh likely have some good years left in them yet. So I am not predicting a long term down turn, just a temporary retreat while the younger players find their feet. Though we do need to unearth a good young KPP or two for future years, whether that's Talia, Melican, X or someone not at the club.

I agree that �unningham, Towers and Rohan are vital to this year's chances. I'd add Reid to that group too. Reid and Rohan have both teased us with glimpses of what they can do but they have spent most of their careers doing it for one quarter a game, two if we're lucky. Injuries have hindered both. If they can get their bodies right and bring more consistency to their games, they could go a long way to keeping us up in the top 4. It's not great that they both start the season on the injury list.

Cunningham and Towers are well behind Reid and Rohan but they've been around long enough to make solid contributions. Their best is unlikely to be as good as Rohan's or Reid's but we still need both to improve if we are to contend.

I don't see Jack or Robinson as being more than bit part players for us this year. I think Robinson is probably just a touch short of the class needed for AFL footy. He's just too vanilla - which is great in ice cream but not so much in a footballer. I do think Jack's pace gives him a point of difference but he doesn't seem to know how to use it. He seems to get pulled into the packs too much, where his hands off the ground and through traffic just aren't clean enough. If he can learn to stay outside the packs and provide an outside option he may still make it but I am starting to doubt it.

[707]

Like your analysis Liz, fairly much in line with my thinking. I've long been vocal that we run out of AFL standard players about 18-19 on our list and therefore need a very good run with injuries and a number of fringe players or bolters to step up.

Missing the eight is a distinct possibility and not a disaster if we can find some players during a down year.

Always hopeful however - go Bloods!

[Scottee]

I tend to agree with most of what you have said Liz. I hope the coaches can change BJs mindset because he could be a good player if he can learn to adjust to the play better.

I'm hoping that Aliir or Dawson can become players during the year, Aliir because he can potentially be a line breaker and would have the athleticism to match most players, Dawson because of his super boot.

Reid is a real key in my mind because he CA take on the Goodies role and play as both a tall forward and a follower/midfielder.

I must say I have been very impressed with George and I now put him in the category of Mills and Heeney.

[Crusty]

I also mainly agree with Liz, but I'd add a few more predictions:
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
2. Teddy's on a one year contract. It won't be renewed. Subject to fitness, he'll play Round 1 v Collingwood, but Talia will start in Round 2 v Carlton, and the plan will be to get as much game time into him as possible, so that he is first choice by the middle of the year. Ted will help coach.
3. In the same vein, we'll get as much game time into the youngsters, Papley, Hewitt, Leonardis, Rose, etc, particularly against Carlton, Essendon, Brisbane etc.

I see this as a year of consolidation, like taking a big breath before a big effort in 17 and 18.

Nevertheless I can't remember being as excited before Round 1. I'm particularly excited by Mills, Hewitt, Papley (will I be the first to call him the Smear after he cleans someone up in a tackle?) and Dawson.

The players we have obtained are in many ways better than those who have left.
Pike's knees were shot. Shaw only came good after the relief of announcing his retirement. Bird didn't play. Jetta was disinterested. Goodsey is the greatest champ, but time was against him. Still had flashes of brilliance, though.

I don't rate BJ or X.
Rose needs some muscle, he's too slight.

Anywhere between 5 and 8.

[RogueSwan]

...
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
....

Nah, Benny will come in to the team for someone, who unfortunately gets injured early August, and then goes on to star in the final quarter of the PF and drags the Swans into another GF.

1. Magpies (SCG) 50/50
2. Blues (ES) WIN
3. Giants (SCG) WIN
4. Crows (AO) WIN
5. Weagles (SCG) LOSS
6. Blions (Gabba) WIN
7. Bombers (SCG) WIN but Birdy will have a blinder
8. Tigers (MCG) 50/50 it's about time we changed the trend
9. Hawks (MCG) LOSS but an honourable one if there is such a thing.
10. Roos (SCG) 50/50 They are good but can be crap too
11. Suns (Metricon) 50/50 I think the Suns will be good this year.
12. Giants (SPO) LOSS
13. Dees (SCG) WIN
14. Dogs (SCG) 50/50
15. Cats (SS) LOSS
16. Hawks (SCG) LOSS
17. Blues (SCG) WIN
18. Dockers (DS) LOSS
19. Power (SCG) 50/50 or maybe 70/30?
20. Saints (ES) WIN
21. Roos (BA) 50/50
22. Tigers (SCG) WIN

9 wins
7 maybes (split that and say 4 wins)
Therefore 13 wins for the season and we finish 5-8, hopefully more 5 than 8

[Mug Punter]

I also mainly agree with Liz, but I'd add a few more predictions:
1. The end was swift for Ryan O'K. Same with Benny. Unless we have an appalling run with injuries, he won't play another senior game. DFA at the end of the year, sadly he'll try to get a gig at another club, unsuccessfully, and will retire.
2. Teddy's on a one year contract. It won't be renewed. Subject to fitness, he'll play Round 1 v Collingwood, but Talia will start in Round 2 v Carlton, and the plan will be to get as much game time into him as possible, so that he is first choice by the middle of the year. Ted will help coach.
3. In the same vein, we'll get as much game time into the youngsters, Papley, Hewitt, Leonardis, Rose, etc, particularly against Carlton, Essendon, Brisbane etc.

I see this as a year of consolidation, like taking a big breath before a big effort in 17 and 18.

Nevertheless I can't remember being as excited before Round 1. I'm particularly excited by Mills, Hewitt, Papley (will I be the first to call him the Smear after he cleans someone up in a tackle?) and Dawson.

The players we have obtained are in many ways better than those who have left.
Pike's knees were shot. Shaw only came good after the relief of announcing his retirement. Bird didn't play. Jetta was disinterested. Goodsey is the greatest champ, but time was against him. Still had flashes of brilliance, though.

I don't rate BJ or X.
Rose needs some muscle, he's too slight.

Anywhere between 5 and 8.

I'm in agreement with most of your points and Liz's well considered post.

I actually feel quite nervous about this season because for the first time in ages I really do fear we could miss the 8, if it goes badly then it could go terribly pear-shaped.

A fit and healthy Buddy would help enormously. The main thing is his health long term as he has a few good years left in him but for me it is simple, Buddy kicks 50+ goals this year and we're up there with a chance. Any less and it's in the lap of the gods.

And could that mean Tippett finally delivering. I rated him last season in the role he did for the team but on the coin he is on we expect more. I know this is unfair on him but for the money we pay Tippett we could probably have Mummy, a third KPD (possibly even Frawley as we'd probably avoided that criminal trade ban) and maybe an additional squad player.

In terms of our next generation we are banking on both Mills and Heeney being 200 gamers and for mine they look like crackers.

It's a big season for our fringe players too. AA, X and Harry must surely be on notice that they need to step up this year and earn a contract, I'm not sure any of them have what it takes.

Towers have the potential to really be a handful but he needs to deliver consistently this year or he too could be trade bait. And I'll include Sam Reid here too, for mine he has only shown us glimpses, he's not a young lad anymore. Rohan likewise notwithstanding the injuries he has endured.

I expect our unsung players like Smith, Laidler, Lloyd and Rampe to continue to do the business this year but I'm concerned about where the new unheralded players will come from (probably because they are still unheralded I guess) - Papley I like, Newman I think is 12 months away and whilst Dawson has a nice kick neither him or Leonardis look near ready for AFL football.

Our long term future looks pretty good when you see the talent we now have locked in to long tern deals but there are a few question marks for mine. Mitchell has a real chance to play every game and stamp himself as our best inside mid this year and I think he may do it - whether we can afford to keep him is another matter and the fact he is the only required player coming off contract now is telling. I'm assuming we want to keep him and are seeing what we have in the kitty when the new CBA is announced later this year. I guess we'd get very good trade value from a Carlton if we did decide to trade. We haven't had to make a sacrificial lamb to the salary cap yet for Buddy (Jed doesn't count) but I fear Tom may have to take one for the team.

The backline is very very vulnerable. By the grace of god we haven't had either Ted or Reg out lately but we really miss that third tall a la LRT. Reid we don't seem to knows what to do with and I doubt Talia is that good. I see no prospects coming through so I guess we'll be going to the draft, trade and free agency tables at season end. I personally think we need three (one a long term KPD in their mid 20s, one for experienced cover and a first round draft pick).