2020 DRAFT points system explained

[Auntie.Gerald]

G'Day everyone,

Im not super familiar with how the points system works when drafting an academy player with a lesser draft pick.

I thought this thread maybe handy for us all to refer to over the next month or so?

My summary is that we need another 613 pts this season equivalent to pick 31 to not go into deficit?

Have i got the below correct?

I may not have, so your advice would be super handy for myself and maybe others?

Scenario right now..... if we use our pick 3 prior to drafting Campbell:

- Pick 3 used to secure top3 talent
- Campbell
- Gulden

i) If we use pick 3 for a drafting a player other then Campbell

ii) Then a rival club was to bid for Campbell at No.10 that is 1395pts less 20% academy discount = 1395 minus 279 = 1116 pts remaining

Then to obtain Campbell, the Swans would have to accumulate their pts ie use picks 22, 54, 56 = 845 + 220 + 194 = 1259pts minus the pick10 (=1116) = 143 pts remaining which becomes pick 60

iii) Gulden then goes at pick 25 = 756pts but we only have 143pts ie pick 60 remaining......... therefore our deficit is 756pts minus 143pts = 613 pts which is equivalent to loosing pick 31 next year?.........which pushes back our first draft pick in 2021 by 613pts ?

2021 = say we had pick 5 it becomes 1878pts minus 613pts = 1265 = so we end up with pick 12 instead of pick 5 in 2021?


PS for reference: We currently have picks

pick 3 = 2234
pick 22 = 845
pick 54 = 220
pick 56 = 194

https://www.afl.com.au/news/501360/i...-as-they-stand

[707]

Basically correct although the whole thing is very rubbery as to the outcome due to not knowing when bids come for Campbell and Gulden, obviously the later the better as we'd need less points to match.

Other problems are our picks being pushed out by creation of FA compo picks possibly or certainly Crouch, Williams, Corr, Cameron (looks like it will be a trade), Daniher, Atkins, Hartigan so far. FA is a big distorter of the draft as an equalisation tool

Later picks will move back in as multiple picks are extinguished by the higher bid matching, JUH, Campbell, Jones, McInnes although our later picks may all be used in matching Campbell before we get that benefit.

A lot of scenarios for the recruiters to work on, including whether this years pick 3 is worth more than the push back of our 2021 first rounder. With the touted depth in the 2021 draft, I'd suspect that we'll grab a likely elite player with pick 3 and figure the drop in 2021 won't be to painful if it is a super draft.

There is also the possibility that we trade our 2021 first for a mix of 2020 and later 2021 picks either before draft night or as a live trade on draft night. We could also trade our pick 3 on the night if our desired target is already taken off the board, again for a mix of 2020 and 2021 picks.

Endless possibilities that we just wait to see played out to I'm sure the correct end

[The Runner]

I believe the 2020 acquired deficit will come off the corresponding pick in 2021. The most likely scenario is we have enough points for Campbell (1st round) but not Gulden (2nd round). So our 2021 second pick would get moved accordingly.

The risk there would be if Gulden goes in Round 1. That would mean a bigger deficit, and it being against our 2021 1st round pick.
So, we'd need to have a high degree of confidence on when Gulden will be picked. If we think it's Round 1, we will be well suited to trade our 2021 1stc round pick, for another clubs 2020 first round. Ideally, a pick before Campbell would likely go.
That would mean 2 top picks before Gulden (or using the two picks to move up the board this year), then acquiring Campbell with the remaining available points. And Gulden eating in to our 2021 second round pick.
This would mean we are in a terrible 2021 draft position, but we have a very strong 2020 draft class.

[Thunder Shaker]

I believe the 2020 acquired deficit will come off the corresponding pick in 2021. The most likely scenario is we have enough points for Campbell (1st round) but not Gulden (2nd round). So our 2021 second pick would get moved accordingly.

The risk there would be if Gulden goes in Round 1. That would mean a bigger deficit, and it being against our 2021 1st round pick.
So, we'd need to have a high degree of confidence on when Gulden will be picked. If we think it's Round 1, we will be well suited to trade our 2021 1stc round pick, for another clubs 2020 first round. Ideally, a pick before Campbell would likely go.
That would mean 2 top picks before Gulden (or using the two picks to move up the board this year), then acquiring Campbell with the remaining available points. And Gulden eating in to our 2021 second round pick.
This would mean we are in a terrible 2021 draft position, but we have a very strong 2020 draft class.

The first round could be quite bloated this year due to free agency compensation picks. So pick 23 could be the last pick in the first round.

[The Runner]

The first round could be quite bloated this year due to free agency compensation picks. So pick 23 could be the last pick in the first round.

Good point. That probably suggests we need to make the trade

[Mr Magoo]

I believe the 2020 acquired deficit will come off the corresponding pick in 2021. The most likely scenario is we have enough points for Campbell (1st round) but not Gulden (2nd round). So our 2021 second pick would get moved accordingly.

The risk there would be if Gulden goes in Round 1. That would mean a bigger deficit, and it being against our 2021 1st round pick.
So, we'd need to have a high degree of confidence on when Gulden will be picked. If we think it's Round 1, we will be well suited to trade our 2021 1stc round pick, for another clubs 2020 first round. Ideally, a pick before Campbell would likely go.
That would mean 2 top picks before Gulden (or using the two picks to move up the board this year), then acquiring Campbell with the remaining available points. And Gulden eating in to our 2021 second round pick.
This would mean we are in a terrible 2021 draft position, but we have a very strong 2020 draft class.

I think we are overrating how good this years draft class is without having any under 18 representative exposure (except a couple of games against GWS mid year). I am a fan of Campbell and Gulden perse but without going through an under 18 series this year against the best I think we should be cautiously optimistic but not stupid in our approach when it is likely the same draft class will all go around next year and with a greater chance of having seen their development.

In a discussion I had with a scout before covid hit he was of the view that this draft year as a whole actually wasnt that strong, so why you would fall over yourself to go into debt for next year when things may become a little clearer is beyond me. If push came to shove and Gulden was taken higher than middle second round with the possible result being a massive debt for next year, I would be tempted to let him go. I cant see it happening as the Swans seem very invested in him but it would at least keep clubs honest going forward about taking academy picks lower than warranted.

[Nico]

These club recruiters are very astute, and even though all the above factors will have a decided influence how far the first round blows out, I reckon clubs will have a pretty good handle the bulk of the players regardless of them not playing much footy. I suspect there will be some absolute steels the second and third rounds.

It seems to me that we will need to let go a senior player to pick up a second round pick for points. Where there is smoke there is blue cod, so Allir may be the one.

[Auntie.Gerald]

agree Nico re it does appear a smart option will be to have say a pick 30 up our sleeve from a risk management perspective re pts and managing Campbell and Gulden

[Thunder Shaker]

In a discussion I had with a scout before covid hit he was of the view that this draft year as a whole actually wasnt that strong, so why you would fall over yourself to go into debt for next year when things may become a little clearer is beyond me. If push came to shove and Gulden was taken higher than middle second round with the possible result being a massive debt for next year, I would be tempted to let him go. I cant see it happening as the Swans seem very invested in him but it would at least keep clubs honest going forward about taking academy picks lower than warranted.

I doubt we would let Gulden go like this just to avoid a deficit. We would be more likely to plan ahead and split pick 3 long before that happens. Trading down in an uncertain draft year has to be better than going into deficit in a strong year or letting Gulden go to another club.

[707]

Rest assured the club has this well planned with all possibilities covered. It is unlikely to the clear until draft night, what we really need to hope for is Gulden not attracting a bid before the second round.

IMO, you don't give up pick 3 under any circumstances as the chance to add potentially such outstanding talent rarely comes along.

Whatever they finally do will be the best course of action. The club knows so much more than us when it comes to list management and recruiting.

[bloodspirit]

Rest assured the club has this well planned with all possibilities covered. It is unlikely to the clear until draft night, what we really need to hope for is Gulden not attracting a bid before the second round.

IMO, you don't give up pick 3 under any circumstances as the chance to add potentially such outstanding talent rarely comes along.

Whatever they finally do will be the best course of action. The club knows so much more than us when it comes to list management and recruiting.

I'm with you all the way, 707.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i suspect that if we are absolutely sold on any of the top3 players coming to the Swans we will roll with that

The post was most to point out we need to most likely have a additional amount of points to deal with Gulden and Campbell as well as pick 3 if that is the likely strategy

an extra pick equaling approx pick 30 in pts value is what we need as a minimum to not go into deficit in 2021 ie pushing back pick 5 to 12 etc in 2021

last time we received a pick of this value was letting go Jones ie a fairly experienced player

I wonder who we see around this value ?

ill continue this over in the drafting thread.........this one was a sticky for our reference re points etc