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Thread: Expectations for 2021 season

  1. #37
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    14th - 18th, for one simple reason: where's the elite talent? Buddy Franklin is 34, will never play a full season again. Rampe now on the wrong side of 30. And Parker is left to do it all himself in the middle with Kennedy getting on a bit. Who else is going to stand up?

    Papley is an AA worthy small fwd, but if you are relying on a small fwd like that then it speaks volumes about the quality in the forward line. Lloyd is already at his peak in terms of numbers. Statistically speaking he is our best player by a mile, but kidding ourselves if we consider him elite. Mills? Unlikely, playing as a mid-sized defender, even if he is very good at it. Heeney who has never EVER shown any consistency. Why should we expect it now? His best is beyond elite - it's awesome. His worst is ordinary, and rears it's head too much.

    Toilers like Hewett, Cunningham, Reid and Fox are tough and work hard but will never be elite. Young players like Ollie and Will have played more ordinary games than impressive ones, never a good sign.

    So I ask where is the game-turning, match-winning, dominant-force talent going to come from? Dawson? Rowbottom? McCartin? What makes us so sure they won't just be rising stars like Heeney and Mills and Hewett who never go on to fulfill their potential?

    Too many unknowns. It's never a good thing. Unless we have a miracle season where everything goes right, and the majority of the list improves on what they have shown so far, very unlikely, then we won't be going anywhere in 2021.

  2. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBloods View Post
    14th - 18th, for one simple reason: where's the elite talent? Buddy Franklin is 34, will never play a full season again. Rampe now on the wrong side of 30. And Parker is left to do it all himself in the middle with Kennedy getting on a bit. Who else is going to stand up?

    Papley is an AA worthy small fwd, but if you are relying on a small fwd like that then it speaks volumes about the quality in the forward line. Lloyd is already at his peak in terms of numbers. Statistically speaking he is our best player by a mile, but kidding ourselves if we consider him elite. Mills? Unlikely, playing as a mid-sized defender, even if he is very good at it. Heeney who has never EVER shown any consistency. Why should we expect it now? His best is beyond elite - it's awesome. His worst is ordinary, and rears it's head too much.

    Toilers like Hewett, Cunningham, Reid and Fox are tough and work hard but will never be elite. Young players like Ollie and Will have played more ordinary games than impressive ones, never a good sign.

    So I ask where is the game-turning, match-winning, dominant-force talent going to come from? Dawson? Rowbottom? McCartin? What makes us so sure they won't just be rising stars like Heeney and Mills and Hewett who never go on to fulfill their potential?

    Too many unknowns. It's never a good thing. Unless we have a miracle season where everything goes right, and the majority of the list improves on what they have shown so far, very unlikely, then we won't be going anywhere in 2021.
    Pick 3, Campbell and Gulden would go some way to addressing the lack of elite talent. If Franklin can get a few games next year, we're not finishing last or close to it.

    Another factor that will influence our finishing position next year is we'll get the easy fixture of a bottom side. A possible fixture would have only one doubled game against one of this year's top 6, two doubled games against the sides finishing 7th to 12th (including GWS) and two doubled games against this year's other bottom six sides. Imagine how many wins we would get if we had two games against Hawthorn, GWS and North.

    I think we'll improve a little next year, perhaps 12th.
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  3. #39
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    Lookin' good.

  4. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBloods View Post

    Too many unknowns. It's never a good thing. Unless we have a miracle season where everything goes right, and the majority of the list improves on what they have shown so far, very unlikely, then we won't be going anywhere in 2021.
    I agree.

    The final 2021 ladder positions should be announced before Christmas. With Covid 19 ruining 2020 why do we have to go through the anxiety of playing out the 2021 season? Every game could be a nail-biter. There might even be a few heart attacks among the fans. Do we really need that?

    Any of those 3 great kids we picked up in the draft could get injured and ruin any hope we have for the future. We should just move on to the 2021 draft. If we finish bottom 4 again, we could be looking at another great draft. I can hardly wait for Christmas next year when the 2022 final ladder will be announced.

  5. #41
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    Do you wax satirical or prophetical Ludwig?

    The media, and RWO attention, devoted to the off season is reaching surreal levels - surely it won't overtake the season itself.
    Last edited by Ruck'n'Roll; 20th December 2020 at 02:22 PM.
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  6. #42
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    My guess is Buddy-dependent. Fit: 9-12. Injured: 12-15.

    But I kind of don't care either. I want us to win, and so does the club, as they know it develops good habits.

    But what I really want to see if all the kids who jumped up a bit this year - Rowbottom, McCartin, Stephens, Blakey, McInerney, even Wicks - continue to make strides. I want to see Ling and Gould and the new draftees crack a reasonable number of games and do in 2021 what that prior group did in 2020. And I want to see us continue to develop the quicker game style we implemented this year, as out foot skills and pace now allow for it.

    If we do that, the win-loss register only matters so much and will take care of itself anyway. And it'll show we're well and truly on track for finals in 2022 and beyond.
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  7. #43
    My major concern is our midfield still not dominant at all - our stats along way down the bottom.

    Second concern is a lack of potency from our vacline attack. Strategically the top teams tend to manage our backline attack fairly easily. We don't have game breakers that challenge the opposition set ups enough.

    Upside is fierce competition now for spots in our best 22 which can provide tougher training and better game day results.

  8. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    My major concern is our midfield still not dominant at all - our stats along way down the bottom.

    Second concern is a lack of potency from our vacline attack. Strategically the top teams tend to manage our backline attack fairly easily. We don't have game breakers that challenge the opposition set ups enough.

    Upside is fierce competition now for spots in our best 22 which can provide tougher training and better game day results.
    Parker fought bravely this year but needs help. Too many kids around him who are either inconsistent or of the size where they will get chewed up and spat out in the trenches. The two co-skippers are carrying the midfield at this stage. The same story as every previous year.

  9. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Auntie.Gerald View Post
    Second concern is a lack of potency from our vacline attack. Strategically the top teams tend to manage our backline attack fairly easily. We don't have game breakers that challenge the opposition set ups enough.
    I don't have the stats or any links to this; it's just based on memory, so could easily be inaccurate. I thought that I heard broadcast commentators say several times during the season that the Swans were the number 1 club for scoring from backline rebound.

    One stat I do have is that the Swans were 4th in average metres gained, after Richmond, Port and Brisbane. That's an indication that we are moving the ball well, but are ineffective converting it into scores on the board.

    We didn't have much of a forward line this season. If we can keep our best forwards fit and playing, our results next season could be markedly improved.
    Last edited by Ludwig; 12th December 2020 at 03:59 PM.

  10. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBloods View Post
    14th - 18th, for one simple reason: where's the elite talent? Buddy Franklin is 34, will never play a full season again. Rampe now on the wrong side of 30. And Parker is left to do it all himself in the middle with Kennedy getting on a bit. Who else is going to stand up?

    Papley is an AA worthy small fwd, but if you are relying on a small fwd like that then it speaks volumes about the quality in the forward line. Lloyd is already at his peak in terms of numbers. Statistically speaking he is our best player by a mile, but kidding ourselves if we consider him elite. Mills? Unlikely, playing as a mid-sized defender, even if he is very good at it. Heeney who has never EVER shown any consistency. Why should we expect it now? His best is beyond elite - it's awesome. His worst is ordinary, and rears it's head too much.

    Toilers like Hewett, Cunningham, Reid and Fox are tough and work hard but will never be elite. Young players like Ollie and Will have played more ordinary games than impressive ones, never a good sign.

    So I ask where is the game-turning, match-winning, dominant-force talent going to come from? Dawson? Rowbottom? McCartin? What makes us so sure they won't just be rising stars like Heeney and Mills and Hewett who never go on to fulfill their potential?

    Too many unknowns. It's never a good thing. Unless we have a miracle season where everything goes right, and the majority of the list improves on what they have shown so far, very unlikely, then we won't be going anywhere in 2021.
    I think you need to top up your beer....your glass appears to be half empty.

  11. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    I don't have the stats or any links to this; it's just based on memory, so could easily be inaccurate. I thought that I heard broadcast commentators say several times during the season that the Swans were the number 1 club for scoring from backline rebound.

    One stat I do have is that the Swans were 4th in average metres gained, after Richmond, Port and Brisbane. That's an indication that we are moving the ball well, but are ineffective converting it into scores on the board.

    We didn't have much of a forward line this season. If we can keep our best forwards fit and playing, our results next season could be markedly improved.
    The forward line was definitely a problem. That's why we pounced on McDonald with alacrity when he was still available at our pick four.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  12. #48
    considering we came third last I suspect it would fair to say every area needs to improve !

    a few thoughts re our forwards being our problem vs our defence not capitalising on our exits once we win a turnover.

    Two-thirds of all points usually come from turnovers in AFL. So what makes Richmond so ruthlessly efficient once they pick up a turnover and us 3rd last on the table so non efficient?

    Richmond tend to also take the least marks so dont rely as heavily on forwards taking marks?

    Using turnovers as a weapon has been Richmonds success and they did it again in the 2020 GF with the least amount of marks in any GF since the 1960s.

    The number of turnovers per AFL game has increased by 13 per cent over the past four seasons, from 126 per match in 2015 to an average of 143 this season.

    Games involving the Tigers feature even more: 155 per game this season, up from 125 four years ago. Crucially, no side is better at forcing its rivals into mistakes whilst minimising its own.

    On average, the Tigers give up the ball nine times fewer per match than their opponents.
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