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Thread: Expectations for 2021 season

  1. #49
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    A major theme of the Richmond game plan is to relentlessly push the ball forward, by any means possible. Every player is on the same page with this, so it's not dependent any particular player to execute this plan. They all do it to the best of their respective abilities. It obviously works for them.

    I can't see Longmire being comfortable with this kind of game plan, except for the high pressure part of their game that causes all those turnovers. I think we will have a plan closer to the Hawthorn game plan during their premiership run, but with more speed. That means more organisation and control of the footy. Our best asset, at least with the younger group, is that we have a lot of players with both speed and good kicking skills. So I expect we will try to combine both of these aspects into a game plan that features more offence than we've shown in recent times. I hope to see line breaking runs setting up precision kicking to our forwards. It's not what we've done in the past, but it's the kind of game that suits our current personnel.

  2. #50
    Ludwing.... Im not not sure what you mean by our game plan and or the Hawks (which was exceptionally kick and catch uncontested in the past under Clarkson) and what you suspect suits our current personnel ?

    Richmond have an exceptional ability of keeping the possession without relying upon marks. They are an outlier at creating opposition turnovers but they are equally an outlier at keeping possession and kicking goals with out needing to take as many marks as their opposition.

    I think we can certainly learn from this........not just because it works incredibly well but because the opposite has not worked for us the last couple of years........kicking to say a Sam Reid does not work nearly as well as what the Tiges do when they zip forward in numbers via efficient handballs and less marks and nail goals.

    I do see a style evolving where we are far more flexible than in years gone past. We move between uncontested and contested more fluently in 2020. We do drive hard thru the middle more via handballs. Yet sometimes this directness if starting to far back....which can be your greatest weakness..... as it is an easy setup for an opposition defence and you have time close down the attack.

    I like that the Tigers very much move the opposition attack towards the sides...... which also allows the field to open to invasive angles on the counter attack and less time for the opposition to set up in defence. We can learn from this i sense because it works and works well above the competition.
    "be tough, only when it gets tough"


  3. #51
    Just a little twist re expectations and what optimises better outcomes:

    As i wrote the above post I couldnt help but think how we can go round and round in the area of identifying our talent weaknesses and or flexibility in game plan weaknesses. We can also identify weakness in our ability not to measure up to the successful teams.

    Yet one area of expectation we havent discussed much on this thread is mindset and off field coaching. The collective mindset facilitation at the Swans ie the total ecosystem of the club and fans. The Management and board. The coaches and players. What are we doing at the Swans to ensure we are at the frontier of leadership and culture building? My "expectations" are high in this area. The opposite to frontier leadership and being behind the 8 ball is lesser results.

    We saw that when Roos came in we needed to double up on leadership and culture. There is no doubt a high correlation between success being attributed to the intersection of talent driven by purpose. We heard Steve Jobs say this all the time.

    If you scroll through a lot of Richmonds media articles re their success 3 of the last 4 years you will find more pointing towards the visit grumpy Hardwick made to Harvard end of 2016 for an elite leadership course. He said he made many changes to his leadership style going into 2017 season and a GF win......You will notice Gale and Peggy discussing what drives them, the why and an expanded why has been absolutely crucial in nurturing their players own basic human needs side by side to on field success.

    "Gale measures success differently
    Richmond boss Brendon Gale says his club has to be more than just a winner of football matches to be classed a success."

    NoCookies | The Australian

    What systems and what consultants and what courses and programs are our board, execs, coaches and players part of that provides the greatest probability of on and off field success?

    What is priming and engaging our whole swans ecosystem to level jump and pull us forward rather then just push?

    how do we design our wellbeing and peak performance to move ahead of the competition?

    How is this structured?

    Richmond have started to share what they attribute to the layers of success? imagine if us supporters could start to sense and experience more of this drive by the club?

    https://aicd.companydirectors.com.au...-great-culture

    ‘Childlike’ approach a key to Dusty’s success

    etc
    "be tough, only when it gets tough"


  4. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwanSand View Post
    Health of Players
    Kennedy, Parker, Hewett, Mills, Lloyd, Rampe, Melican, McCartin, Dawson, Heeney, Papley, Hickey, Sinclair - If healthy -> Pass mark Ladder position 10 - 14

    In addition to above
    Buddy, Reid -> If healthy -> Pass Mark Ladder position 8 - 12

    If Bud plays -> 10 - 14 games -> Pass mark

    Development
    Rowbottom, McInerney, Florent, Stephens, Blakey - > if they take next step -> Pass (Expecting this to happen). If we get an inside midfielder would shift Florent to outside role with intermittent center bounces.

    Recruits
    Campbell, Pick 3 and Gulden -> If come along and play > 15 games between them -> Excellent Development

    Game Style
    Don Pyke influence on playing group -> want to see better functioning forward line.
    Want to see continued corridor use
    Want to see continued Quick play the ball

    What will get us into top 8 ?
    Ruck connection with midfield -> if this somehow happens, i reckon we have the personnel to take us there
    Forward line -> we are a bit non functional when Bud misses, but somehow we need to prepare for life after Bud starting this year.
    Contested marking and possessions -> We were contested beast, we dont need to go slow and contested game but our players need to do contested marking and quick play for our forward line to function well.
    Great summary, welcome to RWO.

  5. #53
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
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    Round 1: Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans, GABBA, 7:45 pm (AEST, 6:45 local) Saturday 20/3/2021
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  6. #54
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    I've been thinking about this question since it was posted. All I have is a simple chart.

    We've seen 3 previous long-term declines, as measured by win %, since 1982. They "bottomed-out" in 2009, 2001 and 1993, and each recovery peaked with a grand final.

    So really, my hope/expectation for 2021 is for that line to turn around. Otherwise we're on a 1993 trajectory.

    Other than that, I'd just like to get some games into as many of the young talent as possible. I know not everyone can make it but seems a waste just having people languishing on a list.

    Best wishes for the holiday everyone! Hope no-one is too impacted by COVID.



  7. #55
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by neilfws View Post
    We've seen 3 previous long-term declines, as measured by win %, since 1982. They "bottomed-out" in 2009, 2001 and 1993, and each recovery peaked with a grand final.

    So really, my hope/expectation for 2021 is for that line to turn around. Otherwise we're on a 1993 trajectory. . . .
    The road to 1993 began in 1985
    First there was the massive recruiting spend on high priced talent, followed by excellent on field performances, existing Swans fans were in enraptured and the star power was drawing in crowds of new fans. Then as the finances became strained, came the gradual squeezing out of players, fringe ones first then more important ones as time went on. At the same time the recruiting targets from other clubs switched from high profile to bargain basement buys. It also became harder to hold onto youngsters.

    There are certainly some marked similarities, and yes differences, between the 1985-1993 and 2012-20 periods.

    A few RWOers, were a bit concerned with the prospect of history repeating itself even at the beginning.
    Then as time has gone on, and some of the parallels grew more noticeable, there had been an incremental and disconnected increase in concerns - at the loss of Swan player here, or the lack of pre-draft trading, or doubts about the ability of the next generation. And for the first time I saw posts showing dissatisfaction of the length and value of Buddies contract go unchallenged.

    The purpose of this post was not to argue similarity or differences in the two periods at this time. Nor go into a cost/benefit analysis of Buddy, for me it's a bit premature given he's still got 2 more seasons anyway.

    My purpose is to agree with neilws

    Despite the ladder position, drop in crowds and the $6.1 million loss, I believe that thanks mainly to the salary cap and the academy we will sink no further.
    2020 was our 1993 and I believe we will rise quickly in a post 1993 like trajectory.
    Actually better than that I think finals next year.
    I'd settle for a granny in another 2 seasons.
    In 1996 we had sufficient salary cap room to do some serious recruiting to top off the team and make the granny, 2023 will be the first year the Swans will not have to pay Buddy's playing contract so maybe we could do the same again.
    Last edited by Ruck'n'Roll; 20th December 2020 at 04:39 PM.
    Loose translation from the Latin is - I am tall, so I hit out.

  8. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by neilfws View Post
    I've been thinking about this question since it was posted. All I have is a simple chart.

    We've seen 3 previous long-term declines, as measured by win %, since 1982. They "bottomed-out" in 2009, 2001 and 1993, and each recovery peaked with a grand final.

    So really, my hope/expectation for 2021 is for that line to turn around. Otherwise we're on a 1993 trajectory.
    This is not comparing like with like.

    Before the mid-1990s, Sydney had a serious problem with player retention, worse than any current club. It was very difficult to build a good side when the best players were only staying for 2 or 3 years and then leaving to play for other clubs. So the uncompetitive period 1988-1995 was longer than it could have been.

    We started to turn that around in about 1995, when we were able to recruit Paul Roos and Tony Lockett, among others. Improving the club culture helped a great deal.

    It's very different now. We can recruit players who are unlikely to leave after two or three years. It still happens, but it's no worse than most other clubs.

    Another factor that was a problem in 1993 was the club being in such a dire state that the club nearly folded, and we were coached very badly by Buckenara, especially player fitness. We're not anywhere near that now.

    We still have a young list. This makes our performances inconsistent. Put another 50 games into our young players and they will be the core of a very good side.

    I'm not expecting a finals appearance next year, but I expect we will see some improvement.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  9. #57
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    This is not comparing like with like.
    In all fairness, I don't think neilws said it was, but has opened a very interesting off season discussion, for which I thank them - and your counter arguments are open to debate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    We started to turn that around in about 1995, when we were able to recruit Paul Roos and Tony Lockett, among others.
    I don't think that's right. The turnaround was well underway before 95, the vast majority of the '96 granny team for example arrived before Roos and Lockett.

    Perhaps the vast majority of the 2023 grandfinal side is in the current list too?

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    We still have a young list. This makes our performances inconsistent. Put another 50 games into our young players and they will be the core of a very good side.
    You make 2020 sound like 1993 to me, by the end of '93 some of us were starting to have hope again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    It's very different now. We can recruit players who are unlikely to leave after two or three years. It still happens, but it's no worse than most other clubs.
    Is that actually correct we are no worse than other clubs in player loss? In any case is it relevant?
    A better question might be, was our player loss in the last 4 years as good as it was in the 4 previous years?

    Maybe it isn't?

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    Another factor that was a problem in 1993 was the club being in such a dire state that the club nearly folded,
    No question of folding, but this years massive operating loss can't be anything other than a hammer blow.

    And who knows whether memberships etc. etc. will bounce back next year?

    In any case, stay well and enjoy the off season.
    Loose translation from the Latin is - I am tall, so I hit out.

  10. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruck'n'Roll View Post
    I don't think that's right. The turnaround was well underway before 95, the vast majority of the '96 granny team for example arrived before Roos and Lockett.
    We started to turn player retention around, but it was still a problem in 1996.

    These players all played in the 1996 GF:
    Shannon Grant - Moved to North Melbourne after the 1997 season.
    Adam Heuskes - Moved to Port Adelaide after the 1996 season.
    Greg Stafford - Moved to Richmond after the 2001 season.
    Simon Garlick - Moved to Western Bulldogs after the 1997 season.
    Jason Mooney - Moved to Geelong after the 1998 season.

    Other players from the 1996 list:
    Simon Arnott - Moved to Geelong after the 1998 season.
    Anthony Rocca - Moved to Collingwood after the 1996 season.
    Justin Crawford - Moved to Hawthorn after the 1996 season.
    Troy Gray - Moved to St Kilda after the 1996 season.
    Stefan Carey - Moved to Brisbane after the 1999 season.
    Clinton King - Moved to Collingwood after the 1997 season.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  11. #59
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    We started to turn player retention around, but it was still a problem in 1996.
    Absolutely, like many parallel's between then and now, the sheer scale of the problems back then were for more extreme.
    Last edited by Ruck'n'Roll; 21st December 2020 at 05:57 AM.
    Loose translation from the Latin is - I am tall, so I hit out.

  12. #60
    I don't know why, but I'm feeling more bullish about the season ahead. Partly I think I'm buoyed by our great draft period. Also just reflecting on our list, I really feel that 2020, despite the Covid interrupted season and our low finish could be a blessing for our development. It enabled us to:

    1. Get games into a lot of our talented young players and also figure out who we wanted to keep and not keep; and

    2. Our low finish gave us a great hand at the draft. If we had finished, say 11th (which was quite feasible with a few less injuries) then I think we would have got Campbell, Gulden and someone else near the back of the draft instead o Logan McDonald - it really made a massive difference and set us up for the future.

    I think that if we have a good run with injuries we could really jump up the ladder and even play finals.

    Right now, I'm thinking Richmond, Geelong, Port, Brisbane, West Coast and Bulldogs are likely finalists. That would leave two more spots. Of the rest I think Saints are the best chance of grabbing one of those spots and I think we can fight with the likes of Melbourne, Carlton, Suns, Freo and GWS for the remaining spot.

    But my greatest expectation for the Swans in 2021, is getting to see them live again! Bring it on! The waiting is tedious and drags so much.
    Last edited by bloodspirit; 21st December 2020 at 03:41 PM.
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