Expectations for 2021 season

[Faunac8]

If we make top 4 it would be due to our soft draw. We are clearly not yet one of the top 4 teams. I will be satisfied if we make the 8 and delighted if we win a final.

I am genuinely curious as to why you think we are clearly not one of the top four teams.
Of the current top four we have beaten the Lions and the Cats and had a fairly honourable loss to the Demons who most pundits are suggesting are as a team a class above the rest. We beat the teams sitting 8th & 9th on the ladder as well and haven’t played any of the other current top eight. Lost two other games by two points and have really only had one poor game against the Suns. Our best is as good as anyone in my opinion
What would we have to do for you to feel we were a genuine top four team ?

[bloodspirit]

I am genuinely curious as to why you think we are clearly not one of the top four teams.
Of the current top four we have beaten the Lions and the Cats and had a fairly honourable loss to the Demons who most pundits are suggesting are as a team a class above the rest. We beat the teams sitting 8th & 9th on the ladder as well and haven’t played any of the other current top eight. Lost two other games by two points and have really only had one poor game against the Suns. Our best is as good as anyone in my opinion
What would we have to do for you to feel we were a genuine top four team ?

I agree we're capable of beating any opposition; but I wouldn't expect us to do it consistently against the best teams e.g. the current top 4. I know we beat the Lions and the Cats, and I think we could again, but I also think we caught them napping early in the season. I think our percentage is a reasonable indicator of where we're at. Except our mental strength and will to fight is perhaps a bit better than our percentage.

I thought our performance tonight was mediocre. I felt better after we lost to the Demons.

Our losses have shown up the journey we still have to go to be elite. We have too many players that still need to improve e.g. Rowbottom, Warner, McDonald, Amartey, Wicks. That's actually not that much of the team. By next year hopefully either those players, or their competitors for their spots, will have improved enough to lift us into the top 4.

The main thing that might change my mind is if we continue to improve in-season. And that is possible. I guess my opinion applies to where I see us now.

[Matty10]

Unless Port and Geelong draw next week and split the points, we will only be percentage out of 4th spot after 12 games, and at least 2 games clear of 9th. This is certainly better than I anticipated, and is a great platform for the second half of the season.

Even so, I am still pretty nervous about pencilling in any future wins (which I hope will be quite a few). In any given game I can imagine a win or a loss. That probably says more about me than the team though. I just want to see the team play well and give it their best shot. Win, lose or draw, you can’t ask much more than that.

[chalbilto]

I think that you can confidently lock in the boys playing in the finals this year. Where they end up on the ladder will depend on the results of the teams around them pan out. I don't anticipate that they will be premiers this year but it this year should provide a great platform for next season and beyond with the improvement and maturity of our young players.

[O'Reilly Boy]

I've not been on the forum for quite some time: work is a constant state of crisis (I work in Higher Education). However, I have been getting to all the Swans home games, as well as the mighty Mosman Willoughby Swans U14 Womens' team (who train three nights a week: no wonder I have no time).

Highlight of the year for me is actually McInerney. A couple of mistakes, for sure, but stuff happens when he gets near the ball. Beautiful fast acceleration which allows him to beat a man, and then take a beat to compose himself, resulting (generally) in judicious disposals. And so competitive. I always feel excited when he trots over to take his place on the O'Reilly wing. He and Heeney are the closest we've got to gamebreakers.

Close second is Harry Cunningham. He's a fast Nick Smith, and I think uses it a bit better. I generally feel relief when the ball gets into his hands, and in particuarly when he is able to manufacture a bit of run and to break the half-back lines. McCartin, Hewitt, Rampe are a solid core, but that impactful running half-back role is still eluding us. I guess we'd hoped that Ling, O'Riordan, or even Campbell might take up that role—Dawson is terrific, but more valuable as a distributor-by-foot that running half-back.

I've also changed my mind about Lloyd. Always thought that he compiled possessions but was limited as a defender per se, and often not particularly incisive as a distributor (lacking, say, Malceski's penetration), but I think that his tackling and defensive pressure has gone up a notch this season. Or maybe I'm just noticing it more now.

Hickey is a wonder, and all too clearly shows us what we've been missing for several seasons.

I loved Amartey's game on Saturday. It was hard for him to play his first game basically as principal ruck last year, but he showed plenty against the Saints as high half-forward and chop-out ruck. Sam Reid 2.0, clunking marks on the wing.


The midfield is a fascinating work in progress. Florent played a bit more in the middle last week, with Chad on the wing, which meant that we didn't see so much of Ollie setting up play with his angled kicks. Rowbottom kind of impresses me, but he is getting relatively little game time, and I suspect is still suffering the effects of his injury. I'm pretty confident looking two or three years down the track, but worry about the expectations we are placing on very green players. Luckily in recent weeks Parker and Kennedy have lifted. Maybe Chad can get towards elite: I hope so. We need a Bont, a Petracca,

Overall, I suspect that we have been flattered by the draw: we managed to ambush the Lions and Tigers early, and rode the excitement of the new boys and a novel game plan over the first three or four weeks. Since then, as the new players were noticed (and accorded a bit more attention), and as opponents adjusted to the new game plan (the Pyke corridors, the precision 45s into the central corridor). We've not really had many remarkable wins since that first burst—the honorable exception is the fantastic effort against Melbourne. My feeling is that we have ground out wins, struggling to cash in on momentum and building the three-goal buffer that feels close, frequently. It seems that our opponents have the sense that they are in the game, and crack on a bit. I look forward to the next stage of our development, when we are able to put teams to the sword and take the pressure off ourselves.

I suspect that games such as the one that we saw last weekend are a fair indication of where we are at: bottom half of the top 8. That we found a way to win is good news, but I didn't feel like I was watching a top-end team.

Finally, I do think that the foot skills have improved remarkably. The handskills come and go. Against the Saints it felt like players were taking on the tackle, but struggling to come out of contact with good alignment to dish-off, resulting in spilled balls, or receivers under great pressure. My hope is that as Chad, Rowbottom, Mills and Florent mature, they can ride those contact bumps a bit better and have the composure to find space under pressure (the old Tom Mitchell seeing negative space trick).

We look like making the eight, and should be aspiring to a home final—and winning it. Longer odds to squeeze into the four, but not entirely beyond the realms of possibility.

So, in terms of a grading rubric:

Pass: position 5-8
Credit: secure home final
Distinction: win home final
High Distinction: top four finish/make it to Prelim
University Medal: play the last weekend of September

[bloodspirit]

Thanks O'RB. Always appreciate your contributions. My commiserations for working in higher education - from all I hear it is not the place to work that it once was.

I've just looked at the fixture and, if I'm looking into my crystal ball, I think we actually are a sneaky chance of making the top 4. We are currently level on points with Port, Geelong & Brisbane but we are have a significantly easier draw over the rest of the season than Port or Geelong. I'm optimistic we can overtake at least one of those two teams and possibly both. The problem may be coming more from below. The other team that I think is going to make up a lot of ground is Richmond. I reckon they'll go 8-2 over the rest of the season and probably overtake us, if only by percentage.

My tip is that we will finish 5th-6th. At this stage, I don't think we deserve to finish higher and, possibly, we will be able to thank the draw for not finishing 7th-8th. If that's the way it finishes up, I'll be very happy. I want us to win a final and, best case scenario, play in a prelim, perhaps after upsetting the top 4 team in our second final. And I absolutely think we can do it!

As for pencilling in our flags in seasons to come I think we will have our work cut out - the Bulldogs, Brisbane and maybe Melbourne and Richmond are all going to be formidable teams for a while to come and look to be some great rivals as our window opens again.

[bloodspirit]

I've just looked at the fixture and, if I'm looking into my crystal ball, I think we actually are a sneaky chance of making the top 4. We are currently level on points with Port, Geelong & Brisbane but we have a significantly easier draw over the rest of the season than Port or Geelong. I'm optimistic we can overtake at least one of those two teams and possibly both. The problem may be coming more from below. The other team that I think is going to make up a lot of ground is Richmond. I reckon they'll go 8-2 over the rest of the season and probably overtake us, if only by percentage.

My tip is that we will finish 5th-6th. At this stage, I don't think we deserve to finish higher and, possibly, we will be able to thank the draw for not finishing 7th-8th. If that's the way it finishes up, I'll be very happy. I want us to win a final and, best case scenario, play in a prelim, perhaps after upsetting the top 4 team in our second final. And I absolutely think we can do it!

I've just realised that I overlooked that Geelong and Port both have a game in hand compared to us when I was gazing into my crystal ball. I therefore think the "sneaky chance" to make top 4 becomes a much more of a long shot. But we still need to overtake someone to claim our home final and avoid being knocked into 7th if Richmond overtake us. I will remain optimistic that we can rely on our kinder draw to overtake either Geelong or Port, whichever loses form the most. And, although it is now a little bit harder (especially if we do get bumped down to 7th), I will stand by my other expectations/hopes for the season.

[Matty10]

I think it is a realistic proposal that we could win 7 of our remaining 10. That would put us on 15 wins. Some years that would get us to the top 4 and other years not. It might depend on who we beat.

Still, I would take that if offered.

[bloodspirit]

I think it is a realistic proposal that we could win 7 of our remaining 10. That would put us on 15 wins. Some years that would get us to the top 4 and other years not. It might depend on who we beat.

Still, I would take that if offered.

Yep, 7 out of 10 is what I'm thinking too. (Hence my thinking the Tigers may overtake us if they win 8/10.) And I would take it if offered.

[SwanSand]

Yep, 7 out of 10 is what I'm thinking too. (Hence my thinking the Tigers may overtake us if they win 8/10.) And I would take it if offered.

The number of wins Is going to come down to - health of the team and if the younger swans are going to hold up the level. The whole season is a grind and some of the younger players will struggle to perform with niggles. The only reason we may not end up in top four is because we don’t have the battle hardened bodies and we may wilt under pressure in the second half as the top teams will go a notch up.

But geez we have the makings of a great team, good coaching group who understand the game and plan accordingly, and a good organisation that keeps everything together to foster on field success.

Hope we somehow get into top 4. And then anything is possible !

[The Runner]

- Warner to become our #1 tagger and become a favourite
- Gould to have gotten his body in a shape to be up for the aerobic demands of AFL, and play 18 games
- Stephens to be rated better than Serong and cover the most km in the team across 2021
- Buddy to play 12 games and be highly managed, Reid to play 5 in his final year and retire mid season
- Kennedy to play his final year
- The McCartin brothers to be stars at either end
- Rowbottom to have a seemingly down year after the return of some other big bodies in the middle
- Overall excitement over our future with the quality on the list, but consistency being the issue meaning we finish 10th

Not a lot right.. but Warner a favourite and RB (albeit injury a significant impact), one McCartin had a great year, and excited with the quality in the list are close ish

[rojo]

Great to read the posts in early June by ORB and Blood Spirit. ORB, we may not have a Bont or a Petracca but since June we have discovered that we do have - a Blakey!!! It's such a shame he is not able to play in the finals.