Page 1 of 22 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 253

Thread: Expectations for 2021 season

  1. #1

    Expectations for 2021 season

    I don't think we have a thread that covers this already and I didn't think a post about this belonged in the other threads on offer.

    What are all our expectations for season 2021? There seem to be a diversity of opinions about this.

    I saw an article on Fox Footy rating expectations for each club in 2021: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-offseason-2020-every-clubs-pass-mark-for-2021-season-predictions-preview-under-pressure-teams-every-team-prediction/news-story/174edf2b1de1b15375b2e8af7a0844e3. FWIW (i.e. not much), their opinion is a pass mark for the Swans is 10-12 wins and finishing no worse than 11th. While I'm not ruling out finals if things click and we get a good run with injury, I happen to think that's about right - with finals the expectation for 2022 at this stage. If we get 10-12 wins, finish no worse than 11th (hopefully better!) and show improvement and development of our young players and that our trajectory is continuing in the right direction, I'll be satisfied with that. Another bottom 4 finish and I'll be very disappointed.

    I'd like to see us be able to score more. Having the personnel will help. Even if Buddy's unavailable we should be able to have at least two of Reid, McCartin and Sinclair in the front half. Potentially even pick 3!

    Finally, I'd like us to good, exciting footy that's fun to watch, have a red hot go and push the best teams hard even when we don't win. (Kind of like we mostly nearly did this year, but better.)

    Apart from the team level expectations, I also have things I'd like individuals to achieve:

    * Buddy get back on the field and play at least half the season
    * Naismith get back to his best by season's end or be delisted
    * Heeney show just a bit more than he has to date. Same for Florent.
    * Substantial improvement and greater consistency from Blakey
    * Gould get at least 6 games and hopefully make our best 22 by season's end
    * Justin McInerney consolidate the good form he showed late in 2020
    * Some further improvement and development from: McCartin, Rowbottom,
    Stephens, Warner, and, especially, Ling
    * Reid to play a full season and show some leadership
    * Hickey to pleasantly surprise us with his rucking and work around the ground
    Let's hear what others have to say? What are the dire predictions of the doomsayers? What do the Pollyanna types expect?
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  2. #2
    Veterans List
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Crowland :-(
    Posts
    4,834
    Expectations for us need to be weighed against other teams progress/regress as we are not competing against the ladder but other teams of course.

    It always amuses me when every pre season you hear people talk about which teams outside the eight "should make the finals" this year, even "expert" commentators have three or four teams some years in this category but for that to happen you need the same number to drop out, 12 into 8 doesn't go.

    So it's which teams we can move ahead of or keep ahead of. If we get a good run with injuries and some natural improvement from younger players, plus we have as good a draft hand as any other team IMO, we should stay in front of Crows and Norf, we've got Hawks covered, Injectors have lost more than gained so that's up to 14th then it gets tougher. Gold Coast must finally rise given the talent rich list, Freo? Carlton must burst into the finals with what they've added. Who is dropping out, Pies in trouble or not bothered by the list quagmire?

    I'm quietly confident we can move ahead of a few more, the young talent is exciting.

  3. #3
    Health of Players
    Kennedy, Parker, Hewett, Mills, Lloyd, Rampe, Melican, McCartin, Dawson, Heeney, Papley, Hickey, Sinclair - If healthy -> Pass mark Ladder position 10 - 14

    In addition to above
    Buddy, Reid -> If healthy -> Pass Mark Ladder position 8 - 12

    If Bud plays -> 10 - 14 games -> Pass mark

    Development
    Rowbottom, McInerney, Florent, Stephens, Blakey - > if they take next step -> Pass (Expecting this to happen). If we get an inside midfielder would shift Florent to outside role with intermittent center bounces.

    Recruits
    Campbell, Pick 3 and Gulden -> If come along and play > 15 games between them -> Excellent Development

    Game Style
    Don Pyke influence on playing group -> want to see better functioning forward line.
    Want to see continued corridor use
    Want to see continued Quick play the ball

    What will get us into top 8 ?
    Ruck connection with midfield -> if this somehow happens, i reckon we have the personnel to take us there
    Forward line -> we are a bit non functional when Bud misses, but somehow we need to prepare for life after Bud starting this year.
    Contested marking and possessions -> We were contested beast, we dont need to go slow and contested game but our players need to do contested marking and quick play for our forward line to function well.

  4. #4
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    My secret laboratory in the suburbs of Melbourne
    Posts
    3,087
    * Be competitive. Even if we're not making the finals next year, at least have a say in the makeup and order of the final eight with a couple of wins over sides in contention for finals. Similar wins this year: GWS, Melbourne.
    * Get more games out of our first-choice players. Franklin played no games, Heeney played six. These two players playing 30 games or more next year between them would make a difference.
    * Get games into the younger players. Rotate them into the side for a few games at a time.
    * Improve our scoring. This goes without saying. Two more goals a game would put us on the edge of the finals. We should be able to improve by more than that.

    Expectation: Finish 12th with eight or nine wins.
    Potential: If everything goes right, we could be back in the finals next year.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  5. #5
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    My secret laboratory in the suburbs of Melbourne
    Posts
    3,087
    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    Expectations for us need to be weighed against other teams progress/regress as we are not competing against the ladder but other teams of course.

    It always amuses me when every pre season you hear people talk about which teams outside the eight "should make the finals" this year, even "expert" commentators have three or four teams some years in this category but for that to happen you need the same number to drop out, 12 into 8 doesn't go.
    An important point that is lost on some.

    As a rule of thumb, one can expect about three sides that made the finals in one year to miss out the next. In 2020, the finalists from 2019 that missed out were GWS and Essendon. In 2019, the 2018 finalists that missed out were Hawthorn, Melbourne and Sydney. In 2021, one can expect at least two to miss out. The most likely to miss out would be Collingwood, after that it's hard to tell.

    ---

    Sydney will have the benefit next year of a bottom-six fixture that would see the Swans playing more of the other bottom-six sides twice. If we're improving next year, that would give us about two or three additional wins.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  6. #6
    Veterans List
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Crowland :-(
    Posts
    4,834
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker View Post
    An important point that is lost on some.

    As a rule of thumb, one can expect about three sides that made the finals in one year to miss out the next. In 2020, the finalists from 2019 that missed out were GWS and Essendon. In 2019, the 2018 finalists that missed out were Hawthorn, Melbourne and Sydney. In 2021, one can expect at least two to miss out. The most likely to miss out would be Collingwood, after that it's hard to tell.

    ---

    Sydney will have the benefit next year of a bottom-six fixture that would see the Swans playing more of the other bottom-six sides twice. If we're improving next year, that would give us about two or three additional wins.
    Double ups against Crows, Norf, Hawks, spanking Hawks twice in a season would be delicious. Double up against a weakened? GWS

  7. #7
    It's hard to see how we make finals exactly, but I give us at least a 20% chance. Even though it's hard to tip which sides in the 8 might slide out (except perhaps Collingwood), and there are others that are looking like they are banging on the door (Carlton, Melbourne), I reckon we could do it.

    Finishing next year above GWS will be progress. And very satisfying progress at that, unless they degenerate into a complete rabble (which is possible despite them still having a pretty star-studded list). They really have a bit of a line-in-the-sand moment this off-season to decide what they stand for. 2021 is the first season in fair while that Gold Coast threatens to finish higher than them.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  8. #8
    Aut vincere aut mori Thunder Shaker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    My secret laboratory in the suburbs of Melbourne
    Posts
    3,087
    Quote Originally Posted by 707 View Post
    Double ups against Crows, Norf, Hawks, spanking Hawks twice in a season would be delicious. Double up against a weakened? GWS
    I think the doubled-up games are likely to be in a 3-1-1 pattern: three against the other five sides in the same part of the ladder, plus one in the other two parts of the ladder. Sometimes this can vary to a 2-2-1, but the 3-1-1 pattern is normal.

    We will get two games against GWS. We will get a doubled-up game against a top six side. So it's plausible that our double-up games may be one top six side, GWS, and three of Adelaide, North, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Essendon. It may vary a bit from this.

    The original 2020 fixture for Sydney (15th in 2019) had these doubled-up games:
    Top 6: GWS
    Middle 6: Essendon, Hawthorn
    Bottom 6: Carlton, Gold Coast
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

  9. #9
    Bottom 6 is a fail. We should be finishing 8-12 and pushing for finals.

  10. #10
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Back here
    Posts
    2,718
    This is pretty much my favorite thread in the off season.

    Gives posters a chance to exchange views on player development that isn't really possible in season.

    Player Development
    Last year, on the basis of ressie watching I booked a seat on the 1 game halfback Justin Mcinerney bandwagon. I also suggested Knoll wasn't the answer.
    This year I can predict nothing because i didn't see any ressies games last year.

    One thing I'd like to discuss though,

    Jake Lloyd is our #1 leaving-the-defensive-50-player - the problem is that while pretty accurate, he's not a particularly long kick and they tend to float a little bit (too much elevation).
    So why don't we channel more play through Jordan Dawson?
    Certainly I'd prefer to see him doing that rather than defending against an opposition tall forward, or acting as relief ruckman FFS (any more of the latter nonsense and who knows, he might bugger of to Port Adelaide too)
    The Tom Papley Backpack $39.99 from the RWO merchandise tab - if only!

  11. #11
    Ego alta, ergo ictus Ruck'n'Roll's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Back here
    Posts
    2,718
    PS

    Last year I said we'd sneak into the finals, but that SamN was the most important ingredient in that.

    This year I say that we'll sneak into the finals, but that Hickey was the most important ingredient in that.
    The Tom Papley Backpack $39.99 from the RWO merchandise tab - if only!

  12. #12
    - Warner to become our #1 tagger and become a favourite
    - Gould to have gotten his body in a shape to be up for the aerobic demands of AFL, and play 18 games
    - Stephens to be rated better than Serong and cover the most km in the team across 2021
    - Buddy to play 12 games and be highly managed, Reid to play 5 in his final year and retire mid season
    - Kennedy to play his final year
    - The McCartin brothers to be stars at either end
    - Rowbottom to have a seemingly down year after the return of some other big bodies in the middle
    - Overall excitement over our future with the quality on the list, but consistency being the issue meaning we finish 10th

Page 1 of 22 1234511 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO