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Thread: The Money Kick (AFL360) and other indicators of winning

  1. #1
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    The Money Kick (AFL360) and other indicators of winning

    By far the most interesting segment on AFL360 this season (and probably on Fox Footy, the actual matches aside) is a short period on Wednesdays, where David King and Leigh Montagna discuss some of the trends they are seeing in the game.

    This evening Montagna highlighted the importance of what he termed "the money kick" - the kick into the forward 50. In past seasons, the team that took more marks inside 50 than its opponent won the game around 75% of the time. So far in season 2021 that percentage is up over 95%. Only two teams have lost the inside 50 mark count and gone on to win the game.

    In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

    Montagna then went on to highlight the individual players who have the highest strike rate at finding a marking target with their kicks inside 50. The 5th ranked player is Paul Seedsman, who has found a target with 30% of his kicks inside 50. Then come Travis Boak (4th), David Mundy (3rd) and Adam Cerra (2nd). Cerra has found a target with just over 36% of his kicks inside 50.

    And first place? Montagna challenged King, Robbo and Gerald to guess who it might be, but I wasn't surprised in the least when they named him. Errol. What is staggering is that he has found a target with over 47% of his kicks inside 50 so far. That's a pretty wide margin over the 2nd best player by any measure, but startling for a 4 gamer.

    Now we just need him to recalibrate his next most important kick that's gone a bit wonky in the past fortnight.

  2. #2
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    Just saw this on 360 and like you Liz I also guessed who #1 would be. As I've said on here elsewhere, I've never been so happy to see the ball in the hands of a first year player! Surely a matter of time before opposition teams starting tagging him?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    By far the most interesting segment on AFL360 this season (and probably on Fox Footy, the actual matches aside) is a short period on Wednesdays, where David King and Leigh Montagna discuss some of the trends they are seeing in the game.

    This evening Montagna highlighted the importance of what he termed "the money kick" - the kick into the forward 50. In past seasons, the team that took more marks inside 50 than its opponent won the game around 75% of the time. So far in season 2021 that percentage is up over 95%. Only two teams have lost the inside 50 mark count and gone on to win the game.

    In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

    Montagna then went on to highlight the individual players who have the highest strike rate at finding a marking target with their kicks inside 50. The 5th ranked player is Paul Seedsman, who has found a target with 30% of his kicks inside 50. Then come Travis Boak (4th), David Mundy (3rd) and Adam Cerra (2nd). Cerra has found a target with just over 36% of his kicks inside 50.

    And first place? Montagna challenged King, Robbo and Gerald to guess who it might be, but I wasn't surprised in the least when they named him. Errol. What is staggering is that he has found a target with over 47% of his kicks inside 50 so far. That's a pretty wide margin over the 2nd best player by any measure, but startling for a 4 gamer.

    Now we just need him to recalibrate his next most important kick that's gone a bit wonky in the past fortnight.
    Great post!
    Twitter: @mattlwood.

  4. #4
    Golden Gulden is an extraordinary kick going inside 50. I’m actually shocked his accuracy is less than 50%. Does that include all the shots for goal he missed against the Bombers?

    He almost always tries to find a target and very rarely misses.

    His kick to Hickey v Richmond was a thing of beauty as was one of his to Buddy last week.

    I know he’s only 4’6” but I am so excited about his potential. Is he favourite in the Rising Star yet?

    And the other clubs let him slip to pick 32!

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    Among a lot of things, he's an excellent kick - though that is a cracker of a stat; but the thing that most strikes me about him as a footballer is his high footy IQ.

    Some players just have it. Errol clearly does. Other teams will put more work into him, but he's got the smarts to eventually work it out. I hate to invoke the name here, but very Sam Mitchell like.
    'Delicious' is a fun word to say

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    Senior Player Rod_'s Avatar
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    Nothing like all media experts picking the game plan to pieces.

    What is clear to me is that the Swans skill and attack has improved. This is exciting!

    All clubs will try to counter and with options we can counter. What Wicks did to the tigers was impressive.

    If any opposition puts to many defenders on one player, I feel we are able to hurt them with the loose player.. Kick to free agent not only Buddy (or Heeney, etc)

    While I typically only look for one game at a time the next month of footy for all clubs is exciting. Some thoughts and concerns

    *Couple of injuries,
    * Last years finalists typically lift from week 4.
    * The fast starters some slide back to the pack about now.

    Definitely a watch this space time and seen who is likely to be serious in September..

    Go Swans

  7. #7
    Just one reason that he's quickly zoomed up to be my second favourite player (behind the great Dane Rampe). He's also the consummate team player. Love Errol!

    Thanks for sharing, liz. (And the tip about that segment on Wednesday evenings.)
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

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    McVeigh for Brownlow RogueSwan's Avatar
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    Last edited by RogueSwan; 15th April 2021 at 03:55 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RogueSwan View Post
    Thanks for that. Made it super-easy to watch.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by liz View Post
    In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

    MI50 stats are available at https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

    Click on the MI column (fourth from the right to sort)

    Sydney 71
    Bulldogs 63
    Fremantle, Port 60
    Melbourne 57
    Adelaide, West Coast 51

    And then on this page you can get the breakdowns per team: https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021.html

    For the lazy:
    Heeney 11
    Reid 8
    Gulden, McDonald 7
    Franklin, Wicks 6
    Papley, Parker 4
    Kennedy, Hickey, McLean 3

    It's a good spread considering Harry McKay leads with 19 and Heeney is equal 11th in the AFL.

  11. #11
    Veterans List DeadlyAkkuret's Avatar
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    Gulden is just about the most likable Swan, along with Heeney.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  12. #12
    He's an elite kicker, including kicking on goal. I think we're seeing his goal kicking take a hit whilst he adjusts to the fitness requirements of the level.

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