The Money Kick (AFL360) and other indicators of winning

[liz]

By far the most interesting segment on AFL360 this season (and probably on Fox Footy, the actual matches aside) is a short period on Wednesdays, where David King and Leigh Montagna discuss some of the trends they are seeing in the game.

This evening Montagna highlighted the importance of what he termed "the money kick" - the kick into the forward 50. In past seasons, the team that took more marks inside 50 than its opponent won the game around 75% of the time. So far in season 2021 that percentage is up over 95%. Only two teams have lost the inside 50 mark count and gone on to win the game.

In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

Montagna then went on to highlight the individual players who have the highest strike rate at finding a marking target with their kicks inside 50. The 5th ranked player is Paul Seedsman, who has found a target with 30% of his kicks inside 50. Then come Travis Boak (4th), David Mundy (3rd) and Adam Cerra (2nd). Cerra has found a target with just over 36% of his kicks inside 50.

And first place? Montagna challenged King, Robbo and Gerald to guess who it might be, but I wasn't surprised in the least when they named him. Errol. What is staggering is that he has found a target with over 47% of his kicks inside 50 so far. That's a pretty wide margin over the 2nd best player by any measure, but startling for a 4 gamer.

Now we just need him to recalibrate his next most important kick that's gone a bit wonky in the past fortnight.

[giant]

Just saw this on 360 and like you Liz I also guessed who #1 would be. As I've said on here elsewhere, I've never been so happy to see the ball in the hands of a first year player! Surely a matter of time before opposition teams starting tagging him?

[Nico]

Just saw this on 360 and like you Liz I also guessed who #1 would be. As I've said on here elsewhere, I've never been so happy to see the ball in the hands of a first year player! Surely a matter of time before opposition teams starting tagging him?

That's why the loss of Heeney to an undisciplined act upsets our forward line. How can a team cover Heeney, Gulden, Wicks and Papley. The opposition tries to cover Gulden as our best small forward with their best small backman then up bobs Paps. Heeney takes their best medium back, so now it is easier to cover our forwards. Lets hope GWS gets fixated with Buddy and tries to double or triple team him. Heeney is a huge loss to our team balance.

[Ludwig]

That's why the loss of Heeney to an undisciplined act upsets our forward line. How can a team cover Heeney, Gulden, Wicks and Papley. The opposition tries to cover Gulden as our best small forward with their best small backman then up bobs Paps. Heeney takes their best medium back, so now it is easier to cover our forwards. Lets hope GWS gets fixated with Buddy and tries to double or triple team him. Heeney is a huge loss to our team balance.

That's almost identical to saying: How can a team cover Hayward, Gulden, Wicks and Papley?

[mcs]

That's why the loss of Heeney to an undisciplined act upsets our forward line. How can a team cover Heeney, Gulden, Wicks and Papley. The opposition tries to cover Gulden as our best small forward with their best small backman then up bobs Paps. Heeney takes their best medium back, so now it is easier to cover our forwards. Lets hope GWS gets fixated with Buddy and tries to double or triple team him. Heeney is a huge loss to our team balance.

No doubt Heeney is a significant loss, no doubt about it. But Buddy will increasingly take more of the focus as he finds form, and we have midfielders that can do a good job up there (Parker in particular), and maybe Hayward if given the chance will grab it. It will be harder for us for sure, but I'm confident we can make it work. Going to be a good test for us on Saturday however with Rampe out too!

[Thunder Shaker]

That's why the loss of Heeney to an undisciplined act upsets our forward line. How can a team cover Heeney, Gulden, Wicks and Papley. The opposition tries to cover Gulden as our best small forward with their best small backman then up bobs Paps. Heeney takes their best medium back, so now it is easier to cover our forwards. Lets hope GWS gets fixated with Buddy and tries to double or triple team him. Heeney is a huge loss to our team balance.

The player we will include to over Heeney won't be quite as good, sure, but it's not going to be the disaster that you're implying it to be. The forward line will still be capable of leading the opposition on a game of cross-country whack-a-mole.

[MattW]

By far the most interesting segment on AFL360 this season (and probably on Fox Footy, the actual matches aside) is a short period on Wednesdays, where David King and Leigh Montagna discuss some of the trends they are seeing in the game.

This evening Montagna highlighted the importance of what he termed "the money kick" - the kick into the forward 50. In past seasons, the team that took more marks inside 50 than its opponent won the game around 75% of the time. So far in season 2021 that percentage is up over 95%. Only two teams have lost the inside 50 mark count and gone on to win the game.

In 2020, Sydney were ranked 13th on this measure but so far in 2021 we are first (by some margin, it was implied, though no data was provided to show how far ahead of other teams we are).

Montagna then went on to highlight the individual players who have the highest strike rate at finding a marking target with their kicks inside 50. The 5th ranked player is Paul Seedsman, who has found a target with 30% of his kicks inside 50. Then come Travis Boak (4th), David Mundy (3rd) and Adam Cerra (2nd). Cerra has found a target with just over 36% of his kicks inside 50.

And first place? Montagna challenged King, Robbo and Gerald to guess who it might be, but I wasn't surprised in the least when they named him. Errol. What is staggering is that he has found a target with over 47% of his kicks inside 50 so far. That's a pretty wide margin over the 2nd best player by any measure, but startling for a 4 gamer.

Now we just need him to recalibrate his next most important kick that's gone a bit wonky in the past fortnight.

Great post!

[Markwebbos]

Golden Gulden is an extraordinary kick going inside 50. I’m actually shocked his accuracy is less than 50%. Does that include all the shots for goal he missed against the Bombers?

He almost always tries to find a target and very rarely misses.

His kick to Hickey v Richmond was a thing of beauty as was one of his to Buddy last week.

I know he’s only 4’6” but I am so excited about his potential. Is he favourite in the Rising Star yet?

And the other clubs let him slip to pick 32!

[Bexl]

[QUOTE=Markwebbos;814713]Golden Gulden is an extraordinary kick going inside 50.

Is he favourite in the Rising Star yet?

/QUOTE]

Opened at $26 into about $3.50 Fav.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Among a lot of things, he's an excellent kick - though that is a cracker of a stat; but the thing that most strikes me about him as a footballer is his high footy IQ.

Some players just have it. Errol clearly does. Other teams will put more work into him, but he's got the smarts to eventually work it out. I hate to invoke the name here, but very Sam Mitchell like.

[Rod_]

Nothing like all media experts picking the game plan to pieces.

What is clear to me is that the Swans skill and attack has improved. This is exciting!

All clubs will try to counter and with options we can counter. What Wicks did to the tigers was impressive.

If any opposition puts to many defenders on one player, I feel we are able to hurt them with the loose player.. Kick to free agent not only Buddy (or Heeney, etc)

While I typically only look for one game at a time the next month of footy for all clubs is exciting. Some thoughts and concerns

*Couple of injuries,
* Last years finalists typically lift from week 4.
* The fast starters some slide back to the pack about now.

Definitely a watch this space time and seen who is likely to be serious in September..

Go Swans

[bloodspirit]

Just one reason that he's quickly zoomed up to be my second favourite player (behind the great Dane Rampe). He's also the consummate team player. Love Errol!

Thanks for sharing, liz. (And the tip about that segment on Wednesday evenings.)