To me, we're entering round 5 and just who the genuine contenders are, is not much clearer than at the start of the season. Some teams that were touted as almost certain finalists, are either mediocre, or may be just slowly arousing after a short offseason. There's only been a few consistent things: the unbeaten teams are probably a bit better than people thought they were; Gold Coast still have an incredible ability to attract injuries, and North have been relentlessly terrible.
Tonight's game is a case in point. Who are the real St Kilda? Are they closer to the team that was thrashed by Essendon and were being soundly beaten by West Coast? Or will they be more like the team, that achieved an incredible comeback against West Coast? Similar for Richmond. Is the crown starting to slip, or are they just having the slow start, that's often typical of teams that go deep into the finals?
Friday night's game is West Coast hosting Collingwood. Collingwood have snuck in a couple of upset wins against West Coast in recent seasons, but the Eagles are strongly favoured to win this one and increase the pressure on Nathan Buckley. Who I almost feel sorry for. Make the long flight over to Perth, and then make a flight back that seems even longer, as he contemplates what crap the Melbourne media will throw at him on arrival.
The first game on Saturday, is the AFLW grand final between Adelaide and Brisbane. Both teams seem worthy contenders, as they've both had solid form throughout the season, and both have seemed to be gathering momentum, as the Grand Final approached. And both have played in two previous grand finals. Although obviously, Adelaide's two wins are better than Brisbane's two losses. Which I guess is why I'll be barracking for the Lions. I really hope that it's not because I'm slowly becoming a Queenslander. But to win, Brisbane have to overcome the sizeable obstacle of Erin Phillips, who already has two grand final BOGs. Though I have a feeling that Brisbane's dangerous forward trio of Davidson, Wardlaw and Hodder, will have big enough games to get them home.
After this, there's two twilight games; at the SCG, we're clear favourites to put the Giants into more early season difficulty, and at Marvel, the Bulldogs are heavy favourites to beat the injury ridden Suns. Personally, I find Gold Coast's continued injury troubles bizarre. Since their inception, they seem to have been endlessly crippled by injuries. And I doubt if that's been due to mismanagement. I mean, I think all clubs would hire highly competent physio and medical staff, who have all effectively absorbed the medical knowledge, that's been taught at Australian universities and which, probably doesn't vary much from university to university. And while Gold Coast might have less soft cap cash to spend on facilities, I doubt that would translate into ten year's worth of devastation? And the Metricon surface usually appears to be in good condition, so that is unlikely to be the culprit. So, maybe it's just year's of relentless bad luck?
In the night games, the odds of the Port v Carlton are closer than I expected, while the loser of the Brisbane v Essendon will slip to 1/4 and will be a worry to their fans.
The first game on Sunday is Adelaide v Fremantle. Fremantle are already establishing a pattern of being good in Perth and not so good away from Perth. Unfortunately for them, this game's in Adelaide.
The next game is Hawthorn v Melbourne. Ladder wise, we should be going for Hawthorn. But I suspect that I won't be the only one, who can't bring themselves to do that.
The final game of the round is Geelong v North. Despite some unconvincing form, Geelong are very short odds to send North to 0/5. While there has been plenty of upsets and mystifying form swings this season, I really can't see an upset here. What I can see, is about 80% of North's more diehard fans, using social media to vitriolically pay out on North's management. The other 20% will be going over NAB League scores and draft predictions, in order to work who they should get with their number one draft pick. Unfortunately for them, the way the club's management have been going, they'll probably trade it away, as part of a cunning plan to get Ben Brown back to the club.
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Originally Posted by Mel_C
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