Are we now a genuine Premiership threat?

[NeonBible]

In short form - yes. 2017 at this stage Richmond were 6th, at 4-3. We are 1 win ahead of where they were and the caliber of teams we have beaten - Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong - is good. Rome wasnt built in a day and if we are winning the flag this year we won't reveal ourselves and contenders until the time actually comes.

We have a number of Swans who we know can be far better than what they have shown - Papley, Heeney, Blakey, Hayward, Rowbottom, Lloyd, Hewett.... thats a significant amount of improvement we can expect if these guys lift in the second half of the season.

Keep Hickey on the park. A fit Buddy. The return of Rampe the general. The likes of Ollie and Chad taking the load off Joey and Parks. More reasons to be optimistic than to be not so !

[aardvark]

No. Making the 8 and winning a final would be a good result IMO.

[Ballinabenny21]

No. Making the 8 and winning a final would be a good result IMO.

Totally agree. this team is like the Swans team of 2003, anything is possible if you win a final

[Blood Fever]

No. Making the 8 and winning a final would be a good result IMO.

Agree. Our young guys would eventually get monstered over an extended finals series.

[O'Reilly Boy]

This is the best 22 to do the job:

B Cunningham Rampe Dawson
HB Lloyd MaCartin Campbell
C J-Mac Warner Florent
HF Heeney Reid Haywood
F Papley Franklin MacDonald

Foll Hickey Parker Mills

Interchange Kennedy Rowbottom Gulden Blakey

Medical Sub
Stephens

I'm not sure that that team is right. It feels light in the back half: we need at least one more large-bodied KPD. I'm not convinced that Campbell playing off half-back is right, particularly in a back six which includes Cunningham, Lloyd and Dawson. Three out of those four, yes. This is where Melican is going to be important if he can get past the injuries. O'Riordan at a pinch. Gould was the great hope, but there must be something not clicking. And I'm not convinced by Hewitt as a key defender. The proposed set up here also would mean that Mills is effectively the seventh defender, and I think that he stays in the middle.

So while that team may be best 22 (arguably), it is not the best team.

I think that Blakey and Hayward are the other points of vunerability (although I rate Hayward higher than many on this forum). I think that Stephens needs to be in the team: he and Florent play great inside/out games. I think that the turning point against Geelong came as Florent started attending centre bounces: he has a great capacity to secure clean ball, take a heartbeat of time to stop, allow defenders to pass him, and then to change the angle of attack with great kicks. The usual pattern has been a ball shoveled out of the pack to a shotgun player who then hoofs it forward—think O'Keefe, Kennedy, Parker—a low percentage play.

And I think that Wicks is adding plenty of value.

So, what about

B: Cunningham Rampe Dawson
HB: Lloyd McCartin Melican

C: McInerney Warner Stephens

HF: Heeney Reid Wicks
F: Papley Franklin Gulden

Followers: Hickey Mills Kennedy Rowbottom

I/C Parker Campbell Florent Blakey

med sub?

Unlucky omissions:
McDonald—his time will come, but while Bud and Reid are fit, they offer more: Reid as chop out ruck, down the line target when the corridor is denied, and swing backman in the clutch. I don't think that we can play all three in the same forward line.
Hewitt—I struggle to see how he fits in the best team. I get nervous with him in a KPD role. Earlier in his career he got named forward, moving into a tagging or run with role, and is, at best fit, a hard running mid. but it's hard to see how he squeezes into the on-ball brigade at the moment. Possibly a horses-for-courses selection (eg against Richmond, where he could start forward and pick up and run with Dusty)
McLean—see McDonald, above
Hayward—not nearly as bad as many posters think, but behind Gulden and Wicks for small forward role

By the end of season 22, we will likely see pressure on Lloyd, Cunningham, Kennedy, Parker, Franklin and Reid to hold their places, but they are still first 22 at the moment.

[NeonBible]

I'm not sure that that team is right. It feels light in the back half: we need at least one more large-bodied KPD. I'm not convinced that Campbell playing off half-back is right, particularly in a back six which includes Cunningham, Lloyd and Dawson. Three out of those four, yes. This is where Melican is going to be important if he can get past the injuries. O'Riordan at a pinch. Gould was the great hope, but there must be something not clicking. And I'm not convinced by Hewitt as a key defender. The proposed set up here also would mean that Mills is effectively the seventh defender, and I think that he stays in the middle.

So while that team may be best 22 (arguably), it is not the best team.

I think that Blakey and Hayward are the other points of vunerability (although I rate Hayward higher than many on this forum). I think that Stephens needs to be in the team: he and Florent play great inside/out games. I think that the turning point against Geelong came as Florent started attending centre bounces: he has a great capacity to secure clean ball, take a heartbeat of time to stop, allow defenders to pass him, and then to change the angle of attack with great kicks. The usual pattern has been a ball shoveled out of the pack to a shotgun player who then hoofs it forward—think O'Keefe, Kennedy, Parker—a low percentage play.

And I think that Wicks is adding plenty of value.

So, what about

B: Cunningham Rampe Dawson
HB: Lloyd McCartin Melican

C: McInerney Warner Stephens

HF: Heeney Reid Wicks
F: Papley Franklin Gulden

Followers: Hickey Mills Kennedy Rowbottom

I/C Parker Campbell Florent Blakey

med sub?

Unlucky omissions:
McDonald—his time will come, but while Bud and Reid are fit, they offer more: Reid as chop out ruck, down the line target when the corridor is denied, and swing backman in the clutch. I don't think that we can play all three in the same forward line.
Hewitt—I struggle to see how he fits in the best team. I get nervous with him in a KPD role. Earlier in his career he got named forward, moving into a tagging or run with role, and is, at best fit, a hard running mid. but it's hard to see how he squeezes into the on-ball brigade at the moment. Possibly a horses-for-courses selection (eg against Richmond, where he could start forward and pick up and run with Dusty)
McLean—see McDonald, above
Hayward—not nearly as bad as many posters think, but behind Gulden and Wicks for small forward role

By the end of season 22, we will likely see pressure on Lloyd, Cunningham, Kennedy, Parker, Franklin and Reid to hold their places, but they are still first 22 at the moment.

McLean is averaging 1.8 goals a game. I didnt think we would be saying that at the start of the year! He would have to be in the best 22 - surely! His 4 goals was the most by a Swan this year behind only Buddy's bag of 5 in the derby!! I think he is ahead of the Lizard who you have included.

Hewett too is an interesting dilemma. I confess i dont fully get the hype around George. He is a disciplined, skilful team player, but not a game-changer. That possibly gets him in the team, unless there's a game-changer like Campbell. I wouldn't be removing Campbell for him, but maybe Rowbottom? I wonder whether we will see George as a midfielder again. I think back to the GCS game where Touk Miller ran riot - we could've done with George there. I still think he could maybe offer more than Rowbottom if in a midfield capacity. It is a tricky call, I think both would be favourites of Longmire and he wouldn't want to leave either out, but midfield balance might force his hand!

These are such good problems to have and why i am brimming with confidence about what we can do this season!

[crackedactor 01]

We might be out muscled this year with such a young team , but I am confidant of a flag in the next 3-4 years.

[KSAS]

If we have a good run with injuries from here on & field our best 22 with Buddy in form, I'd give us a chance to pinch it this year. The excuberence of youth who hold no fear mixed with experience does wonderous things. Just like the Baby Bombers of 93.

[bloodspirit]

I'm not sure that that team is right. It feels light in the back half: we need at least one more large-bodied KPD. I'm not convinced that Campbell playing off half-back is right, particularly in a back six which includes Cunningham, Lloyd and Dawson. Three out of those four, yes. This is where Melican is going to be important if he can get past the injuries. O'Riordan at a pinch. Gould was the great hope, but there must be something not clicking. And I'm not convinced by Hewitt as a key defender. The proposed set up here also would mean that Mills is effectively the seventh defender, and I think that he stays in the middle.

So while that team may be best 22 (arguably), it is not the best team.

I think that Blakey and Hayward are the other points of vunerability (although I rate Hayward higher than many on this forum). I think that Stephens needs to be in the team: he and Florent play great inside/out games. I think that the turning point against Geelong came as Florent started attending centre bounces: he has a great capacity to secure clean ball, take a heartbeat of time to stop, allow defenders to pass him, and then to change the angle of attack with great kicks. The usual pattern has been a ball shoveled out of the pack to a shotgun player who then hoofs it forward—think O'Keefe, Kennedy, Parker—a low percentage play.

And I think that Wicks is adding plenty of value.

So, what about

B: Cunningham Rampe Dawson
HB: Lloyd McCartin Melican

C: McInerney Warner Stephens

HF: Heeney Reid Wicks
F: Papley Franklin Gulden

Followers: Hickey Mills Kennedy Rowbottom

I/C Parker Campbell Florent Blakey

med sub?

Unlucky omissions:
McDonald—his time will come, but while Bud and Reid are fit, they offer more: Reid as chop out ruck, down the line target when the corridor is denied, and swing backman in the clutch. I don't think that we can play all three in the same forward line.
Hewitt—I struggle to see how he fits in the best team. I get nervous with him in a KPD role. Earlier in his career he got named forward, moving into a tagging or run with role, and is, at best fit, a hard running mid. but it's hard to see how he squeezes into the on-ball brigade at the moment. Possibly a horses-for-courses selection (eg against Richmond, where he could start forward and pick up and run with Dusty)
McLean—see McDonald, above
Hayward—not nearly as bad as many posters think, but behind Gulden and Wicks for small forward role

By the end of season 22, we will likely see pressure on Lloyd, Cunningham, Kennedy, Parker, Franklin and Reid to hold their places, but they are still first 22 at the moment.

I appreciate this thoughtful post.

My main criticism of your 22 is that it is actually a 23 - you have four followers. You've got to leave someone else out.

I like your point about how many will be under pressure by the end of next year.

[Rod_]

Having enough fit players at the end of the season to be able to challenge is a huge question in May.

Other questions to be able to answer:

Can we make the finals? Who are we up against? There always seems to be a soft and hard draw and if we are in the soft side or not? Are we playing good football in late August? Can this form stand up to Septembers footy? Will the other 7 teams limp in, or be strong? Can the team play to potential or hype? What is the real likelihood we can defeat contenders twice in a season? etc... This is the never ending story that May and June will add to the mix of what the season will give us. Exciting isn't it!!

I feel we are well suited to play finals because.
We have defeated team that played finals last year.
Horse will attempt to keep us in the best place to play the right teams in finals, if possible.
We have some depth to cover players that may be injured. If we play to the right intensity we can defeat all teams.
We can only do our best. If the other team is better on the day, well we don't get the prize..

To answer the question are we contenders? I hope so!!

[Bangalore Swans]

I'm not sure that that team is right. It feels light in the back half: we need at least one more large-bodied KPD. I'm not convinced that Campbell playing off half-back is right, particularly in a back six which includes Cunningham, Lloyd and Dawson. Three out of those four, yes. This is where Melican is going to be important if he can get past the injuries. O'Riordan at a pinch. Gould was the great hope, but there must be something not clicking. And I'm not convinced by Hewitt as a key defender. The proposed set up here also would mean that Mills is effectively the seventh defender, and I think that he stays in the middle.

So while that team may be best 22 (arguably), it is not the best team.

I think that Blakey and Hayward are the other points of vunerability (although I rate Hayward higher than many on this forum). I think that Stephens needs to be in the team: he and Florent play great inside/out games. I think that the turning point against Geelong came as Florent started attending centre bounces: he has a great capacity to secure clean ball, take a heartbeat of time to stop, allow defenders to pass him, and then to change the angle of attack with great kicks. The usual pattern has been a ball shoveled out of the pack to a shotgun player who then hoofs it forward—think O'Keefe, Kennedy, Parker—a low percentage play.

And I think that Wicks is adding plenty of value.

So, what about

B: Cunningham Rampe Dawson
HB: Lloyd McCartin Melican

C: McInerney Warner Stephens

HF: Heeney Reid Wicks
F: Papley Franklin Gulden

Followers: Hickey Mills Kennedy Rowbottom

I/C Parker Campbell Florent Blakey

med sub?

Unlucky omissions:
McDonald—his time will come, but while Bud and Reid are fit, they offer more: Reid as chop out ruck, down the line target when the corridor is denied, and swing backman in the clutch. I don't think that we can play all three in the same forward line.
Hewitt—I struggle to see how he fits in the best team. I get nervous with him in a KPD role. Earlier in his career he got named forward, moving into a tagging or run with role, and is, at best fit, a hard running mid. but it's hard to see how he squeezes into the on-ball brigade at the moment. Possibly a horses-for-courses selection (eg against Richmond, where he could start forward and pick up and run with Dusty)
McLean—see McDonald, above
Hayward—not nearly as bad as many posters think, but behind Gulden and Wicks for small forward role

By the end of season 22, we will likely see pressure on Lloyd, Cunningham, Kennedy, Parker, Franklin and Reid to hold their places, but they are still first 22 at the moment.

I could agree with a couple of changes. A fit Melican I can agree with. Swap for McDonald.


Your team is 23 players as you have included 4 followers. You need to omit one player.

I like Wicks but Haywood has real mercurial talent. His ability to pluck a contested pack mark is a great asset to have if the Swans are playing contested boundary line football.

I keep Blakey ahead of Stephens because Blakey is versitile. Can play Wing, Half Back, Half Forward or a little bit of ruck. Stephens may alter my thinking after a couple of games.

[O'Reilly Boy]

I appreciate this thoughtful post.

My main criticism of your 22 is that it is actually a 23 - you have four followers. You've got to leave someone else out.

I like your point about how many will be under pressure by the end of next year.

What a goose. Blakey misses.

not a bad situation to be in.