Are we now a genuine Premiership threat?

[dejavoodoo44]

Forever the optimist

Though I do agree, even after another great performance today.

We should finish 6th at worst from here however, which would be a great outcome. Though with the way things are headed in Sydney, even then a home final may not be guaranteed.

Maybe a rerun of West Coast at Geelong?

[bodgie]

It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!

[Vonsteinman]

Belief is not the same as confidence

We can win the flag this year. A long shot. But we’re a threat

Precisely, the truth is in the thread title.

[Aprilbr]

It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!

I was at the game today behind the goals with the cheer squad and it was like a home game with all of the fabulous support from the Swans loyalists from the South days. We have by far the biggest away support of any non-Victorian Club.

[Agent 86]

Belief is not the same as confidence

We can win the flag this year. A long shot. But we’re a threat

Correct. We’ve got belief we can beat any team on any day if we show up. On the other hand, we’ve shown that we can be beaten by any team if we don’t show up. Not looking forward to the North game.

In reality, I don’t think we’re quite in the serious contender category just yet, but I didn’t think we’d win both the last 2 weeks fairly convincingly.

[goswannies]

It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!

Given our SCG record, it might actually be a blessing.

And barring covid shutting down Victoria again, the GF will be at the MCG until at least 2058. So I guess either wish for a health disaster for an entire state or accept that the Grand Final has a home for the next quarter of a century.

[Nico]

It would be a cruel injustice if we have to stay in Melbourne for another few weeks and then have to return again for away finals. That would suck. If we make the GF we should get a home GF!

We play very well at Marvel Stadium. Have a good record there. Be happy to play the GF there.

[MattW]

Yes.

[Thunder Shaker]

My assessment of the remainder of the season.

Sydney's remaining games:
Collingwood (H), Fremantle (A), Carlton (H), St Kilda (A), Hawthorn (H), Port Adelaide (A), West Coast (H), Western Bulldogs (A), GWS Giants (A), Fremantle (H), Essendon (A), St Kilda (H), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). Return matches in italics.

Expected number of premiership points from each game (on a scale of 0 to 4):
Collingwood (4), Fremantle (2), Carlton (3), St Kilda (2), Hawthorn (4), Port Adelaide (1), West Coast (3), Western Bulldogs (1), GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2).

Games expected to win (4/4):
Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne.

Games where a win is likely (3/4):
Carlton, West Coast, Fremantle (H), St Kilda (H).

Games with even chances (2/4):
Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), GWS Giants (A), Essendon (A), Gold Coast (H).

Games where a win is unlikely (1/4):
Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs.

Total expected premiership points:
From these games 36 (9 wins, 5 losses), at end of season 56 (14 wins, 8 losses).

It's time to revisit this to see how well my predictions have stood up so far. I will give the actual results as well as a running total of the difference between predicted premiership points and actual premiership points.

Collingwood (4) WIN (30 points). +0
Fremantle (2) LOSS (2 points). -2
Carlton (3) WIN (22 points). -1
St Kilda (2) WIN (9 points). +1
Hawthorn (4) LOSS (38 points) -3
(BYE)
Port Adelaide (1) LOSS (10 points) -4
West Coast (3) WIN (92 points) -3
Western Bulldogs (1) WIN (13 points). +0

The running total is currently zero, so the predictions have been fairly accurate overall. The individual match results are not as good, though they balance out: the unexpected Hawthorn loss is balanced by the unexpected win over the Dogs.

It's also interesting seeing how our form has improved after the bye.

The remaining games are: GWS Giants (2), Fremantle (3), Essendon (2), St Kilda (3), North Melbourne (4), Gold Coast (2). These add up to 16, so four more wins are predicted out of these last six games. That would give us 14 wins. Win all six, and we would be in with a good chance of a top four finish.

[Vonsteinman]

Gee, that win showed quite a bit of maturity… 🤔

[Matty10]

You have got to be it to win it, as the saying goes, and we are getting closer to ‘it’ each week.

Every season provides opportunities and we are doing our best to keep those opportunities alive. This is an exciting time, and I love to dream. Go Bloods!

[MattW]

Yes.