I hope so! I'm happy to see this thread, and I hope we can divert people here when umpiring discussion threatens to overrun a match thread.
So to continue this discussion:
It's true, I am fixated on statistics - it's kind of what I do for a living. Umpiring decisions are an emotive subject, debating them is part and parcel of the fun of being a footy fan and that's great! But I hope there is room for those of us who take a step back, a deep breath and try to be a bit more objective about it all, even when it's our own team.
I don't feel that free kicks have no impact on games (though I can see how one or two of my posts might be interpreted that way). But I do think that there are very, very few games where the result hung on an umpiring decision. And I also think that of the many factors that can influence the outcome of a game, free kicks are nearer the bottom of the list than the top.
I'd like to recommend the book
Footballistics to anyone who enjoys a bit of data analysis. There's an entire chapter in there on home ground advantage and umpire bias. It's complicated...but basically concludes that whilst there is evidence for unconscious umpire bias, it amounts on average to a difference of a few points per game at most. Now you might argue that some games are won and lost by a few points and you'd be right - but that would be to ignore all the other things that went on in the game.
I'd also recommend following the Twitter hashtag for any AFL game (not for long though or your brain will melt). You'll find that fans of every single team are convinced that the umpires are against them, the opponent always gets the rub of the green and even that there is a league conspiracy against their success. I'm afraid Swans fans are nothing special in that regard
Anyway: I'm glad to have this thread, and I'll be using it to try and convince everyone that the free kick differential is a useless number with no bearing on anything!
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