Round 12 vs Melbourne Demons @ MCG

[Agent 86]

I had been planning this trip for months, especially following the defeat last year and enduring the MCC members’ taunts and arrogance. The first quarter saw a state of deja vu, and I was beginning to wonder what could I do to become invisible.
I knew that we if we had kicked straighter or they kicked less straight then we would have been right in it but it was scary watching how easily they entered their forward fifty and were able to convert.
The second quarter saw RB completely dominate Oliver’s influence, a team approach to tackling and responsibility, great contested marking both forward and back and relentless pressure across the ground.
The second half became an arm wrestle with Gawn dominant but the Swans winning everywhere else. Blakey was outstanding, Rampe completely shut down Brown, the McCartin’s were amazingly brave and the Members were complaining (always a good sign from bullies).
This win was important not just from a ladder perspective but because we need to prove to ourselves that we are worthy, that teams need to fear us and that we are genuine contenders.
Why did we win, when so many times teams have not been able to resist the Melbourne onslaught once they’d gained the advantage? The belief and grit of this group of young men is surely remarkable and makes me humble to be a supporter of such a team.
A great night.

Great yarn! Thanks. Would’ve been a great game to witness live (despite the cold).

[RogueSwan]

I'm pretty sure his position at academy level was, "Errol, you just run wherever you want to"...

The Adam Goodes position

[i'm-uninformed2]

Having just watched the second quarter again, I noticed a little snippet, that emphasises his ground covering ability. It's the passage that you described, that starts with the spoil on Brown and ends with Papley haring into the 50. Papley then turns to celebrate. The first one there with the high fives? Young Errol.

Ha! I missed that at first but yes - amazing. When I looked again, you can actually seeing him running through the middle as Chad sends the ball forward. How he got there so quick after the spoil I have no idea but he does seem to have preternatural running abilities for a 19 year old, let alone all his other attributes.

I wonder if this is a bit of a distinction with Campbell. I know he played midfield as a junior but there is a big difference between doing that, and having an AFL midfield engine. This is not to knock Campbell, as most players take a couple of years to develop one. For example, as good as Chad was at times last year and as much as he had explosive power in bursts, his ability to play permanent mid and cover the ground has taken a quantum leap forward again this year.

Anyway, it's all a nice reminder we have a very special player on our hands in Errol. I said on Saturday night, long may the footy gods be kind to Logan. I hope they're just as kind to Errol.

[111431]

If Errol and Buddy had played together for 10 years, Buddy would have 2000 goals by now. He finds his chest nearly everytime he goes forward with the ball

[707]

Speaking of Errol, I wonder if the club knew he was this outstanding before he was drafted and how much they were prepared to go into deficit to match a bid if it had come much higher than the eventual steal at pick 32.

I'm glad they matched because based on exposed form, and I might be forgetting a player or two here?, Errol currently looks the best player of the 2020 ND?

[i'm-uninformed2]

Speaking of Errol, I wonder if the club knew he was this outstanding before he was drafted and how much they were prepared to go into deficit to match a bid if it had come much higher than the eventual steal at pick 32.

I'm glad they matched because based on exposed form, and I might be forgetting a player or two here?, Errol currently looks the best player of the 2020 ND?

My understanding is they thought the risk was he'd go in that pick 20-22 range, where Geelong (who ultimately bid on him with their next pick) and Melbourne, who had two picks, were placed. That was line ball on a deficit so they would have taken him in a heartbeat.

Our real piece of luck in that draft actually came in the final game of 2020 when Papley kicked 2.5 against Geelong and we lost by a goal. He kicks straight, we win the game, Hawks finish below us on the ladder and bid on Campbell - and there's no Logan McDonald. God bless ya Paps!

[Faunac8]

My understanding is they thought the risk was he'd go in that pick 20-22 range, where Geelong (who ultimately bid on him with their next pick) and Melbourne, who had two picks, were placed. That was line ball on a deficit so they would have taken him in a heartbeat.

Our real piece of luck in that draft actually came in the final game of 2020 when Papley kicked 2.5 against Geelong and we lost by a goal. He kicks straight, we win the game, Hawks finish below us on the ladder and bid on Campbell - and there's no Logan McDonald. God bless ya Paps!

Great post
As I often maintain it’s a game of inches and it doesn’t take many of them to create the butterfly effect which can either impact negatively or in this case positively.
Listening to Logan after the game he seems very settled and embedded in our culture.
I know he signed for 2 more years earlier this year but I hope his next contract is similar to Isaac’s in length and he becomes a one club player.
So looking forward to Errol putting it out in front of him for another ten years plus.

[Goal Sneak]

Watching the replay, I was most impressed with the way we switched between offence and defence. We continued to take risks in attack but if there was a turnover, we immediately switched into a ferocious defensive unit. If we can continue to switch like that for the rest of the season then we will be very hard to beat.

I'm not able to find the scores from turnovers stat but I imagine the Swans came out clear winners in this department.

[liz]

I'm not able to find the scores from turnovers stat but I imagine the Swans came out clear winners in this department.

The First Crack (FoxFooty) panel looked at this last night. I can't remember exactly, but I think Melbourne kicked 0.5 from turnover and we were 5.something.

David King also talked about net metres gained from turnover. He suggested that any team with a positive net metres gained over a match will more often than not win. If a team achieves 500m net metres gained from turnover, they have had a sensational game. On Saturday, the Swans achieve >1,300m.

My main impression from watching the replay (admittedly mostly 2nd and 4th quarters) is that our lads played far from a perfect game, at least in terms of kicking. They were trying high risk kicks into the corridor but a lot of these didn't come off. So it's not as if we played the game of our lives to win that one. Still plenty more to get right.

Another thing highlighted on First Crack was that Melbourne have only played three teams in the current top eight, and have lost two out of three. So while the story all season (until now) is that the Dees were just strolling towards another premiership, they've not performed (yet) against the teams that matter.

By comparison, the Dockers are currently best against top eight sides (4-2). We are 2-2.

[Goal Sneak]

The First Crack (FoxFooty) panel looked at this last night. I can't remember exactly, but I think Melbourne kicked 0.5 from turnover and we were 5.something.

David King also talked about net metres gained from turnover. He suggested that any team with a positive net metres gained over a match will more often than not win. If a team achieves 500m net metres gained from turnover, they have had a sensational game. On Saturday, the Swans achieve >1,300m.

My main impression from watching the replay (admittedly mostly 2nd and 4th quarters) is that our lads played far from a perfect game, at least in terms of kicking. They were trying high risk kicks into the corridor but a lot of these didn't come off. So it's not as if we played the game of our lives to win that one. Still plenty more to get right.

Another thing highlighted on First Crack was that Melbourne have only played three teams in the current top eight, and have lost two out of three. So while the story all season (until now) is that the Dees were just strolling towards another premiership, they've not performed (yet) against the teams that matter.

By comparison, the Dockers are currently best against top eight sides (4-2). We are 2-2.

Thanks liz. The net metres gained stat provides a much more accurate depiction of what I was trying to establish. That's even more dominant than I was thinking.

[707]

When thinking about Melbourne's season, always remember we have their first round pick, if they win the flag, as has been the talk recently, that will be pick 19 (Ashcroft possible F/S to Brisbane in first few picks). To our advantage that they finish further down.

I am however happy for us to turn our first rounder into pick 19 :-)

[Faunac8]

Thanks liz. The net metres gained stat provides a much more accurate depiction of what I was trying to establish. That's even more dominant than I was thinking.

Pressure will create possession which inevitably leads to scoring opportunities.
No surprise that we were so dominant in that metric given how often we seemed to be looking for play on options when we gained contested possession.
Of course they don’t all pay off but then again no risk no reward
Melbourne were shell shocked and couldn’t answer our pressure after the first quarter.
It was lovely to witness in the flesh.