The final countdown - 3 games remaining

**liz** · 30th June 2022, 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by Danzar

I played around with it last night and ran a scenario where we beat Freo and lose two other games....we make the top four (even with two losses) with Freo out in P5.

Swans v Dockers is massive for both sides. Everything leads to Perth.

What if we win all the rest except the Freo game?

**Danzar** · 30th June 2022, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by liz

What if we win all the rest except the Freo game?

Fifth (based on who I think will win with a bias towards those above the Swans). There's a scenario where we can take fourth over Dees but unlikely in my view.

**MattW** · 30th June 2022, 08:48 PM

Originally Posted by Danzar

Fifth (based on who I think will win with a bias towards those above the Swans). There's a scenario where we can take fourth over Dees but unlikely in my view.

Yeah, I got the same outcome. A loss by Brisbane tonight might change that, though.

**Goal Sneak** · 1st July 2022, 10:10 PM

What a great time it is to be a Swans supporter, still well and truly in the hunt this season but no lofty, immediate expectations. The run home does not look too daunting and the boys should be confident.

So exciting to see all these young kids coming through and learning week by week. Play well over the next 8 rounds and we get a great opportunity to have a real crack.

Go The Mighty Swans!

**Maltopia** · 2nd July 2022, 10:01 PM

Originally Posted by Danzar

I played around with it last night and ran a scenario where we beat Freo and lose two games....we make the top four (even with two losses) with Freo out in P5.

Swans v Dockers is massive for both sides. Everything leads to Perth.

We are about to drop to 8th after our loss today against the Bombers, with the Pies to go 4 points ahead if they hold their lead vs GC, and Richmond will be on equal points but higher percentage if they take care of the Eagles.

Losing only one more game from here (and it not being against Fremantle) looks unlikely with our up and down efforts.

**i'm-uninformed2** · 2nd July 2022, 10:20 PM

Originally Posted by i'm-uninformed2

Love it.

I think the main thing is having no more 'brain explosion' losses, and locking in the wins against the Bombers, Crows (with the special wish on this one of rubbing The Rat's nose in it, figuratively and literally), GWS, Kangas and Saints.

Why did I tempt fate

**Kafka's Ghost** · 3rd July 2022, 03:52 PM

Looking at the overall draw, we might scrape into 8th spot with 13 wins. Not sure if it’s worth it or not at this stage. But it’s always valuable getting finals experience into a young squad, I guess.

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**bloodspirit** · 9th July 2022, 09:15 PM

Originally Posted by Kafka's Ghost

Looking at the overall draw, we might scrape into 8th spot with 13 wins. Not sure if it’s worth it or not at this stage. But it’s always valuable getting finals experience into a young squad, I guess.

Geez. That's pessimistic. I still think we're a 20% chance to finish top 4. We have to beat Freo and lose no more than one other (preferably not against Collingwood) - as others have already pointed out. If we can sustain how we played last night, that's absolutely doable against our opposition. Even if we don't keep it up for every match, it's still doable. But next week is critical. Cheer hard next week you WA Swans! A real 8 point cracker.

**Maltopia** · 9th July 2022, 09:50 PM

We can make the top 4 on percentage without beating Freo if we win all our games and Freo drop three games, such as vs St Kilda (they are trailing at half time), their rematch vs Melbourne, vs Richmond away and vs Bulldogs away.

Be stoked if we can win 5 of our final 6.

**Kafka's Ghost** · 10th July 2022, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by bloodspirit

Geez. That's pessimistic. I still think we're a 20% chance to finish top 4. We have to beat Freo and lose no more than one other (preferably not against Collingwood) - as others have already pointed out. If we can sustain how we played last night, that's absolutely doable against our opposition. Even if we don't keep it up for every match, it's still doable. But next week is critical. Cheer hard next week you WA Swans! A real 8 point cracker.

Fair point. I posted that in the gloom of last week’s loss to Essendon. Whilst our best is truly awesome, our worst is bottom 4 stuff. If we can maintain something close to Friday night’s level, without the big drop-off, we could achieve anything. Just not sure if we have the maturity across the board to do it yet.

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**Thunder Shaker** · 10th July 2022, 09:35 PM

This season is a very even season. Every top 8 side has losses they would prefer to forget.

Geelong: Lost to Hawthorn and St Kilda.
Melbourne: Lost to four top eight sides. No losses to sides currently outside the top eight.
Fremantle: Lost to St Kilda and Gold Coast.
Brisbane: Lost to Hawthorn and Essendon.
Carlton: Lost to Gold Coast and St Kilda.
Collingwood: Lost to West Coast and Western Bulldogs.
Sydney: Lost to Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Essendon.
Richmond: Lost to St Kilda, Adelaide and Gold Coast.

Sydney has four losses to sides outside the top eight, more than any other current top eight side. However, that's balanced by a good record against the top eight sides, including wins over both Geelong and Melbourne.

If we were more consistent, we could win this. Learn from the losses, lads.