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Thread: The final countdown - 3 games remaining

  1. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattW View Post
    Just did a ladder predictor:
    - win every game = 4th
    - win every game bar next week v Fremantle = 5th
    We can finish 4th (on percentage) even if we lose vs Fremantle if the Lions drop two games. Or without percentage if they drop three.

    Lions apparently have COVID concerns so next week vs GWS is no certainty. They then have a derby vs the raging Suns, plus games vs Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne.

  2. #26
    Melbourne also not looking rock solid for top 4 - they have a tough run home and haven't been in great form.

    Geelong is the only team pretty much guaranteed to finish top 4 (very likely top 2).
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  3. #27
    We don't want to finish outside top 4 again like last year. Too many good teams in the bottom half of the 8. Go swans

  4. #28
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    Best prospect to steal fourth from is Dees from here. Freo has the better math (they only need to lose one whereas Dees need to lose two) but Dees have the much harder run home. And Freo have two games they could win with a big margin and percentage boost. Percentage is the key consideration for all teams regardless. We're ahead of Freo but behind Dees on percentage. We need to nail a big win to open up both options. If we win the remaining five on tight margins, we can't overtake Dees and we run the risk of Freo still taking fourth even if they drop a game.

    Freo next five
    Tigers - likely win but could be a danger game for them, Tigers will have a lot to play (and atone) for.
    Dees - likely win
    Dogs - win
    Eagles - percentage win
    Giants - percentage win

    Dees next five (assumes win in today's game v Port
    Dogs - win
    Freo - danger game, likely loss
    Pies - danger game, likely win
    Blues - danger game, likely win
    Lions - danger game, likely loss

    Swans next five
    Crows - percentage win
    Giants - win
    North - percentage win
    Pies - danger game, likely win
    Saints - win
    Captain, I am detecting large quantities of win in this sector

  5. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danzar View Post
    Best prospect to steal fourth from is Dees from here. Freo has the better math (they only need to lose one whereas Dees need to lose two) but Dees have the much harder run home. And Freo have two games they could win with a big margin and percentage boost. Percentage is the key consideration for all teams regardless. We're ahead of Freo but behind Dees on percentage. We need to nail a big win to open up both options. If we win the remaining five on tight margins, we can't overtake Dees and we run the risk of Freo still taking fourth even if they drop a game.

    Freo next five
    Tigers - likely win but could be a danger game for them, Tigers will have a lot to play (and atone) for.
    Dees - likely win
    Dogs - win
    Eagles - percentage win
    Giants - percentage win

    Dees next five (assumes win in today's game v Port
    Dogs - win
    Freo - danger game, likely loss
    Pies - danger game, likely win
    Blues - danger game, likely win
    Lions - danger game, likely loss

    Swans next five
    Crows - percentage win
    Giants - win
    North - percentage win
    Pies - danger game, likely win
    Saints - win
    I think Brisbane is just as likely as the Dees to slip out of the top four.

    They have a derby vs Gold Coast Suns with multiple team changes post COVID. Then away vs Richmond who will be desperately fighting to stay in the eight.

    Also have Carlton, Saints and then Melbourne.

    If they drop two and we win all of ours, we overtake them. They could also lose three of their final five.

  6. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maltopia View Post
    I think Brisbane is just as likely as the Dees to slip out of the top four.

    They have a derby vs Gold Coast Suns with multiple team changes post COVID. Then away vs Richmond who will be desperately fighting to stay in the eight.

    Also have Carlton, Saints and then Melbourne.

    If they drop two and we win all of ours, we overtake them. They could also lose three of their final five.
    True, but my thinking is their real challenge comes towards the end when they'll have players back, Blues and Dees are both home games, and they have a substantial percentage lead on us. But agree, still a possibility.
    Captain, I am detecting large quantities of win in this sector

  7. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danzar View Post
    True, but my thinking is their real challenge comes towards the end when they'll have players back, Blues and Dees are both home games, and they have a substantial percentage lead on us. But agree, still a possibility.
    But it won't matter if we have one or more Jekyll and Hyde performances and lose games we 'should' win. Adelaide have improved recently so we need to not take them for granted, then it is only four more games to navigate.

  8. #32
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    OWAAT.

    In any event, still feels like the Bombers loss will come back to haunt us.

  9. #33
    I think if we win all our remaining games we'll find our way into the top 4 some how. However winning them all, even if we start as favourites in all of them, won't be easy, particularly given our inconsistency.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  10. #34
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    It feels like a big guessing game, particularly with forecasts of COVID being at its peak in August. Not saying that in a panicked way about COVID or doom'n'gloom re the Swans, just it'll throw a wildcard into the competition.
    'Delicious' is a fun word to say

  11. #35
    Does feel like the Swans have increased their intensity since Bombersgate. And are peaking at the right time (famous last words)

  12. #36
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    Yes, I'd like to think Bombersgate has put the wind up our guys. Also, winning usually means there are few changes to the team week to week
    (except for injuries) so competition for spots is tight. The bottom six need to be on their best behaviour to keep theirs. We can win the last
    five games and open up the chance for a home final. And we've beaten three of the current top four on the ladder.
    I'm feeling increasingly bullish.

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