Rnd 21, vs North Melbourne at Marvel, on Sunday 7 August, 1:10 PM

[goswannies]

Okay, so it’s not whether you win or lose but how you play the game?

But, anyway, my inner pedant was still not convinced.

1653/1256 * 100 = 131.6
1734/1336 * 100 = 129.8

Or am I doing it wrong?

But I get the point overall… when you’ve got a healthy percentage, a tight win means you’ll still lose percentage.

There’s perhaps even more to it than that. At the start of the season, wins and losses will have a bigger impact on percentage and percentage changes than later in the season, as the for & against scores are cumulative over the season. Also it’s not just a close loss, as a close loss in a lower scoring game has a bigger impact on percentage than a close loss in a higher scoring game early in the season, but this is progressively reversed as the season progresses.

Let’s go to extremes with an unlikely hypothetical.

Round 1 of the season: the Swans defeat GW$ in a low scoring affair 0.2(2) to 0.1(1), gives the Swans a percentage of 200%

Same round, the Cats just get over the line against the Dees in a goal fest 30.21(201) to 30.20(200) giving Geelong a far less healthy % of 100.5.

Same winning margin, vastly different impact on % at the very start of the season.

Fast forward to the start of round 23. The Geelong and the Swans sit tied on top of the ladder the ladder. Incredibly, both have identical number of wins & losses with identical for/against points of 1786 for/1318 against, both having a percentage of 135.5%

As luck would have it, the Swans play and defeat GW$ with an identical round 1 scoreline Syd 0.2(2) def GW$ 0.1(1). And astonishingly Geelong replicate their Round 1 scoreline against the Dees with a 201 to 200 victory!

This gives Sydney 1788 for/1319 against and a slightly improved percentage of 135.6%. Geelong’s end of H&A percentage is 1987 for/1518 against giving a percentage of 130.9%

There are a number of things we can take away from that improbable hypothetical:

1) lower scoring matches have a much larger impact on % at the start of the season than at the end of the season because of the cumulative for/against ratio by the end of the season

2) winning margins are more significant for lower scoring matches

My example doesn’t show this as I would need more
complexed hypotheticals, but a larger percentage requires much bigger wins to maintain it (ie a narrow win, if you have a high percentage will almost invariably cause your percentage to drop).

[707]

Nice work goswannies.

It's important to keep your opposition to a low score as the % boost is greater for the same margin where you keep the opposition score low, as we did against GWS.

No changes this week, Kennedy medi sub again as he played a full reserves game.

[Mountain Man]

There were 6 changes to the team that played last weekend to those playing against North earlier in the year

Hickey for Ladhams
Amarty for McLean
Stephens for Campbell
Clarke for Kennedy
Papley for Bell
Fox for Cunningham

Looks stronger to me

[Faunac8]

There were 6 changes to the team that played last weekend to those playing against North earlier in the year

Hickey for Ladhams
Amarty for McLean
Stephens for Campbell
Clarke for Kennedy
Papley for Bell
Fox for Cunningham

Looks stronger to me

I tend to agree apart from Kennedy - Clarke but maybe that’s simply nostalgia

[707]

Norf set to make about 6 or 7 changes

[Markwebbos]

Norf set to make about 6 or 7 changes

Including the possible return of Cunnington

[TheBloods]

Including the possible return of Cunnington

No

He is in the VFL , first game back in a year . Good to see

[bloodspirit]

No

He is in the VFL , first game back in a year . Good to see

North Melbourne Roos faced with emotional decision on champion Ben Cunnington's return (afl.com.au)

"It’s probably going to be the VFL, even though we’d love it to be straight back in.
"Deep down I know he’d love to play seniors, particularly being a game in Melbourne this weekend and we travel next weekend.

[Ludwig]

There were 6 changes to the team that played last weekend to those playing against North earlier in the year

Hickey for Ladhams
Amarty for McLean
Stephens for Campbell
Clarke for Kennedy
Papley for Bell
Fox for Cunningham

Looks stronger to me

The big difference is Papley in for Bell. A huge difference is more like it.

Clarke is not in the same league as Kennedy, but fills a more important role for us in that we have replaced our weakest link in defence with a shut down defensive forward. We've played a much stronger defensive game since Clarke took on this role.

More than player upgrades, the Swans have been looking more like a team with a real game plan, banking on solid defending to create turnovers to release a highly skilled and hard running offense.

Championship teams come out every week and play at a consistently high level. So it's really up to us how thing roll on this year. We are not dependent on a weak opposition to get us through.

[Aprilbr]

North Melbourne Roos faced with emotional decision on champion Ben Cunnington's return (afl.com.au)

"It’s probably going to be the VFL, even though we’d love it to be straight back in.
"Deep down I know he’d love to play seniors, particularly being a game in Melbourne this weekend and we travel next weekend.

Its great he is back but it would be a big ask for him to march straight back into the Seniors after not playing for 12 months. I think that would be throwing him to the wolves as he is not match hardened.

[stevoswan]

No

He is in the VFL , first game back in a year . Good to see

Yep, happy to see him back after his battle.

[stellation]

Its great he is back but it would be a big ask for him to march straight back into the Seniors after not playing for 12 months. I think that would be throwing him to the wolves as he is not match hardened.

Particularly after a calf concern and then Covid just a week ago. Great to see him return, and will be a big boost for Roos fans- but if he's been out for so long and they're keen for him return in Melbourne then surely give him 2 weeks in the magoos since they will be back in Melbourne in a fortnight to finish the season.