There’s perhaps even more to it than that. At the start of the season, wins and losses will have a bigger impact on percentage and percentage changes than later in the season, as the for & against scores are cumulative over the season. Also it’s not just a close loss, as a close loss in a lower scoring game has a bigger impact on percentage than a close loss in a higher scoring game early in the season, but this is progressively reversed as the season progresses.
Let’s go to extremes with an unlikely hypothetical.
Round 1 of the season: the Swans defeat GW$ in a low scoring affair 0.2(2) to 0.1(1), gives the Swans a percentage of 200%
Same round, the Cats just get over the line against the Dees in a goal fest 30.21(201) to 30.20(200) giving Geelong a far less healthy % of 100.5.
Same winning margin, vastly different impact on % at the very start of the season.
Fast forward to the start of round 23. The Geelong and the Swans sit tied on top of the ladder the ladder. Incredibly, both have identical number of wins & losses with identical for/against points of 1786 for/1318 against, both having a percentage of 135.5%
As luck would have it, the Swans play and defeat GW$ with an identical round 1 scoreline Syd 0.2(2) def GW$ 0.1(1). And astonishingly Geelong replicate their Round 1 scoreline against the Dees with a 201 to 200 victory!
This gives Sydney 1788 for/1319 against and a slightly improved percentage of 135.6%. Geelong’s end of H&A percentage is 1987 for/1518 against giving a percentage of 130.9%
There are a number of things we can take away from that improbable hypothetical:
1) lower scoring matches have a much larger impact on % at the start of the season than at the end of the season because of the cumulative for/against ratio by the end of the season
2) winning margins are more significant for lower scoring matches
My example doesn’t show this as I would need more
complexed hypotheticals, but a larger percentage requires much bigger wins to maintain it (ie a narrow win, if you have a high percentage will almost invariably cause your percentage to drop).
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