Fixture Droughts: which clubs haven't played others twice in a season for a while?

[Thunder Shaker]

Recently I noticed that Sydney hasn't played Adelaide twice in a season since 2005. That's quite a long time. This revealed that the AFL doesn't actually balance the fixture in such a way to prevent this.

So I decided to investigate this further, and here are the results: Thunder's list of the three longest doubled-up fixture droughts for each club.

Notes:
* If multiple clubs are tied for third, I list all such clubs.
* I have ignored the doubled-up games in the 2020 season's original fixture, and the 2015 match between Adelaide and Geelong that was cancelled after the sudden death of the Adelaide coach. None of these matches were played so there was no point including them.

Adelaide: Sydney (2005), Western Bulldogs (2013), Brisbane Lions (2015).
Brisbane Lions: Sydney (2011), Adelaide (2015), West Coast (2016), Carlton (2016).
Carlton: North Melbourne (2007), West Coast (2010), Geelong (2014).
Collingwood: Greater Western Sydney (NEVER), St Kilda (2011), Sydney (2013), North Melbourne (2013).
Essendon: Melbourne (2005), West Coast (2013), Western Bulldogs (2014).
Fremantle: Adelaide (2016), Gold Coast (2016), Geelong (2017), North Melbourne (2017), Richmond (2017).
Geelong: Carlton (2014), Essendon (2016), Collingwood (2017), Fremantle (2017), Greater Western Sydney (2017).
Gold Coast: Richmond (NEVER), Essendon (2016), Fremantle (2016).
Greater Western Sydney: Collingwood (NEVER), North Melbourne (2012), Port Adelaide (2016).
Hawthorn: Carlton (2015), Port Adelaide (2015), Collingwood (2017).
Melbourne: Essendon (2005), Carlton (2017), North Melbourne (2017).
North Melbourne: Carlton (2007), West Coast (2012), Greater Western Sydney (2012).
Port Adelaide: Hawthorn (2015), Sydney (2015), Greater Western Sydney (2016).
Richmond: Gold Coast (NEVER), Western Bulldogs (2013), North Melbourne (2015).
St Kilda: Collingwood (2011), Essendon (2016), Western Bulldogs (2016).
Sydney: Adelaide (2005), Brisbane Lions (2011), Collingwood (2013).
West Coast: Carlton (2010), North Melbourne (2012), Essendon (2013).
Western Bulldogs: Adelaide (2013), Richmond (2013), Essendon (2014).

Longest droughts:
Never: Gold Coast v Richmond, Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney.
2005: Adelaide v Sydney, Essendon v Melbourne.
2007: Carlton v North Melbourne.
2010: Carlton v West Coast.
2011: Brisbane Lions v Sydney, Collingwood v St Kilda.
2012: Greater Western Sydney v North Melbourne, North Melbourne v West Coast.

If the AFL is looking for ways to improve its fixture, they could pick the longest doubled-up droughts and make them doubled-up fixtures for next season, if the drought is longer than seven years or so. A few clubs like Fremantle have no such long droughts so don't need this adjustment yet.

[Maltopia]

Recently I noticed that Sydney hasn't played Adelaide twice in a season since 2005. That's quite a long time. This revealed that the AFL doesn't actually balance the fixture in such a way to prevent this.

So I decided to investigate this further, and here are the results: Thunder's list of the three longest doubled-up fixture droughts for each club.

Notes:
* If multiple clubs are tied for third, I list all such clubs.
* I have ignored the doubled-up games in the 2020 season's original fixture, and the 2015 match between Adelaide and Geelong that was cancelled after the sudden death of the Adelaide coach. None of these matches were played so there was no point including them.

Adelaide: Sydney (2005), Western Bulldogs (2013), Brisbane Lions (2015).
Brisbane Lions: Sydney (2011), Adelaide (2015), West Coast (2016), Carlton (2016).
Carlton: North Melbourne (2007), West Coast (2010), Geelong (2014).
Collingwood: Greater Western Sydney (NEVER), St Kilda (2011), Sydney (2013), North Melbourne (2013).
Essendon: Melbourne (2005), West Coast (2013), Western Bulldogs (2014).
Fremantle: Adelaide (2016), Gold Coast (2016), Geelong (2017), North Melbourne (2017), Richmond (2017).
Geelong: Carlton (2014), Essendon (2016), Collingwood (2017), Fremantle (2017), Greater Western Sydney (2017).
Gold Coast: Richmond (NEVER), Essendon (2016), Fremantle (2016).
Greater Western Sydney: Collingwood (NEVER), North Melbourne (2012), Port Adelaide (2016).
Hawthorn: Carlton (2015), Port Adelaide (2015), Collingwood (2017).
Melbourne: Essendon (2005), Carlton (2017), North Melbourne (2017).
North Melbourne: Carlton (2007), West Coast (2012), Greater Western Sydney (2012).
Port Adelaide: Hawthorn (2015), Sydney (2015), Greater Western Sydney (2016).
Richmond: Gold Coast (NEVER), Western Bulldogs (2013), North Melbourne (2015).
St Kilda: Collingwood (2011), Essendon (2016), Western Bulldogs (2016).
Sydney: Adelaide (2005), Brisbane Lions (2011), Collingwood (2013).
West Coast: Carlton (2010), North Melbourne (2012), Essendon (2013).
Western Bulldogs: Adelaide (2013), Richmond (2013), Essendon (2014).

Longest droughts:
Never: Gold Coast v Richmond, Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney.
2005: Adelaide v Sydney, Essendon v Melbourne.
2007: Carlton v North Melbourne.
2010: Carlton v West Coast.
2011: Brisbane Lions v Sydney, Collingwood v St Kilda.
2012: Greater Western Sydney v North Melbourne, North Melbourne v West Coast.

If the AFL is looking for ways to improve its fixture, they could pick the longest doubled-up droughts and make them doubled-up fixtures for next season, if the drought is longer than seven years or so. A few clubs like Fremantle have no such long droughts so don't need this adjustment yet.

But how does playing a team twice in the near future due to not having played them twice for a long time, make the competition more even, when you don't factor in the team's relative strengths at the time they play?

E.g., everyone would want to play North Melbourne or West Coast twice next year. Giving Carlton (ahead of any other top 10 team) a second stab at both North and West Coast next year would help them go up the ladder, and possibly secure that top 8 spot next year over a Western Bulldogs or St Kilda.

I think they need to look at the relative strengths of the team - teams that finished top eight or top four in a year, should not be playing bottom six or so sides the following year, apart from the contrived home derbies.

[Thunder Shaker]

But how does playing a team twice in the near future due to not having played them twice for a long time, make the competition more even, when you don't factor in the team's relative strengths at the time they play?

E.g., everyone would want to play North Melbourne or West Coast twice next year. Giving Carlton (ahead of any other top 10 team) a second stab at both North and West Coast next year would help them go up the ladder, and possibly secure that top 8 spot next year over a Western Bulldogs or St Kilda.

I think they need to look at the relative strengths of the team - teams that finished top eight or top four in a year, should not be playing bottom six or so sides the following year, apart from the contrived home derbies.

The AFL fixture already does this. The most important consideration for the AFL fixture is finishing position. The AFL divides teams into three groups of six, based on finishing position. Teams will play up to three games against other teams in its own group, and play one or two games against teams in the other groups. Top eight teams will play bottom teams if they are fixtured in that way.

However, the AFL fixture does offer a fair bit of flexibility. For example, consider our 2022 fixture. We finished seventh in 2021 (after finals). We played the following teams twice, with finishing positions after finals: Essendon (8), Greater Western Sydney (6), North Melbourne (18), St Kilda (10), Western Bulldogs (2). The groups were 2-2-1. One of the teams we played twice this year finished on the bottom last year. So the AFL can certainly fixture teams out of its group - it already does this.

The AFL fixturing is done with some randomness, and this has created anomalies such as Gold Coast and Richmond never meeting twice in a season. Repairing these anomalies will take some time. Nowhere did I suggest that such repair would take only one season. It's not possible, see Carlton for an example. This fixturing anomaly can be corrected in a few years by reserving one double up per team per year for the team that they have gone longest without a double up. (I already said something similar in my previous post, though I wasn't clear how many matches this would be per year.) It's possible to construct a partial round of football that addresses many of the droughts: Adelaide v Sydney, Essendon v Melbourne, Gold Coast v Richmond, Collingwood v GWS, North Melbourne v West Coast, Carlton v Geelong. (You didn't like Carlton playing both North Melbourne and West Coast twice, and fair enough too. This is easily fixed by having the latter teams play each other twice for the first time since 2012. So how about Carlton playing Geelong twice? It's Geelong's longest double-up drought.)

As for making the competition more even, surely the current situation is not even? Richmond has NEVER played Gold Coast twice in a season, and the only time Collingwood has played GWS twice in a season is when they met in a final. Surely it would be more even if sides were guaranteed eight or nine double up games against all other teams in seven years? It would also make it harder for the AFL to perpetuate rubbish such as Collingwood and Essendon not being fixtured to play in Perth in a number of seasons.

[wolftone57]

Recently I noticed that Sydney hasn't played Adelaide twice in a season since 2005. That's quite a long time. This revealed that the AFL doesn't actually balance the fixture in such a way to prevent this.

So I decided to investigate this further, and here are the results: Thunder's list of the three longest doubled-up fixture droughts for each club.

Notes:
* If multiple clubs are tied for third, I list all such clubs.
* I have ignored the doubled-up games in the 2020 season's original fixture, and the 2015 match between Adelaide and Geelong that was cancelled after the sudden death of the Adelaide coach. None of these matches were played so there was no point including them.

Adelaide: Sydney (2005), Western Bulldogs (2013), Brisbane Lions (2015).
Brisbane Lions: Sydney (2011), Adelaide (2015), West Coast (2016), Carlton (2016).
Carlton: North Melbourne (2007), West Coast (2010), Geelong (2014).
Collingwood: Greater Western Sydney (NEVER), St Kilda (2011), Sydney (2013), North Melbourne (2013).
Essendon: Melbourne (2005), West Coast (2013), Western Bulldogs (2014).
Fremantle: Adelaide (2016), Gold Coast (2016), Geelong (2017), North Melbourne (2017), Richmond (2017).
Geelong: Carlton (2014), Essendon (2016), Collingwood (2017), Fremantle (2017), Greater Western Sydney (2017).
Gold Coast: Richmond (NEVER), Essendon (2016), Fremantle (2016).
Greater Western Sydney: Collingwood (NEVER), North Melbourne (2012), Port Adelaide (2016).
Hawthorn: Carlton (2015), Port Adelaide (2015), Collingwood (2017).
Melbourne: Essendon (2005), Carlton (2017), North Melbourne (2017).
North Melbourne: Carlton (2007), West Coast (2012), Greater Western Sydney (2012).
Port Adelaide: Hawthorn (2015), Sydney (2015), Greater Western Sydney (2016).
Richmond: Gold Coast (NEVER), Western Bulldogs (2013), North Melbourne (2015).
St Kilda: Collingwood (2011), Essendon (2016), Western Bulldogs (2016).
Sydney: Adelaide (2005), Brisbane Lions (2011), Collingwood (2013).
West Coast: Carlton (2010), North Melbourne (2012), Essendon (2013).
Western Bulldogs: Adelaide (2013), Richmond (2013), Essendon (2014).

Longest droughts:
Never: Gold Coast v Richmond, Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney.
2005: Adelaide v Sydney, Essendon v Melbourne.
2007: Carlton v North Melbourne.
2010: Carlton v West Coast.
2011: Brisbane Lions v Sydney, Collingwood v St Kilda.
2012: Greater Western Sydney v North Melbourne, North Melbourne v West Coast.

If the AFL is looking for ways to improve its fixture, they could pick the longest doubled-up droughts and make them doubled-up fixtures for next season, if the drought is longer than seven years or so. A few clubs like Fremantle have no such long droughts so don't need this adjustment yet.

Why not calculate how many times Essendon, Collingwood & Carlton played in Perth in the last 20 years. Maybe, Hawks too.

Or how many games Collingwood, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Richmond play on The G.

Sent from my JAT-L29 using Tapatalk

[Thunder Shaker]

Why not calculate how many times Essendon, Collingwood & Carlton played in Perth in the last 20 years. Maybe, Hawks too.

Or how many games Collingwood, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Richmond play on The G.

Sent from my JAT-L29 using Tapatalk

I was specifically looking at the double-up droughts. It's hard to justify fixtures where a pair of teams can go a decade or more without meeting twice in a season and I was exploring ways of improving it. It also gave me an excuse to write some code to perform this analysis.

All the AFL has to do is specifically choose a "double-up drought" team as one of the five double-up teams for each team (if the drought is more than about seven seasons), and these droughts will be eliminated over time. The AFL could push this out to two or even three, provided each of the drought teams finished in a different set of six finishing positions (1 to 6, 7 to 12, 13 to 18). For example, a couple of droughts involving Carlton can be eliminated by making Carlton play Geelong (2014) and North Melbourne (2007) twice next year.

The long-term goal would be a guarantee that teams have one double-up game against every other team at least once every seven years or so, provided that double-up games remain in the fixture.

[707]

Excellent research. The Crows drought hurts me as being based in Adelaide I always hope that the draw has us playing at AO twice. Can't remember the last time we did.

I do manage to catch occasional games interstate, always like it when I can catch a ressies game as well.

The draw will be much anticipated this year, Crows and Geelong were the lucky recipients this season of double ups against the hapless Norf and WCE. Geelong, how did that happen?

[dimelb]

I was specifically looking at the double-up droughts. It's hard to justify fixtures where a pair of teams can go a decade or more without meeting twice in a season and I was exploring ways of improving it. It also gave me an excuse to write some code to perform this analysis.

All the AFL has to do is specifically choose a "double-up drought" team as one of the five double-up teams for each team (if the drought is more than about seven seasons), and these droughts will be eliminated over time. The AFL could push this out to two or even three, provided each of the drought teams finished in a different set of six finishing positions (1 to 6, 7 to 12, 13 to 18). For example, a couple of droughts involving Carlton can be eliminated by making Carlton play Geelong (2014) and North Melbourne (2007) twice next year.

The long-term goal would be a guarantee that teams have one double-up game against every other team at least once every seven years or so, provided that double-up games remain in the fixture.

Brilliant idea!
Now watch the AFL ignore it ...

[Thunder Shaker]

Excellent research. The Crows drought hurts me as being based in Adelaide I always hope that the draw has us playing at AO twice. Can't remember the last time we did.

2020 (pointless in front of no fans though!), and 2014.[/QUOTE]

[Thunder Shaker]

Longest droughts:
Never: Gold Coast v Richmond, Collingwood v Greater Western Sydney.
2005: Adelaide v Sydney, Essendon v Melbourne.
2007: Carlton v North Melbourne.
2010: Carlton v West Coast.
2011: Brisbane Lions v Sydney, Collingwood v St Kilda.
2012: Greater Western Sydney v North Melbourne, North Melbourne v West Coast.

Double ups in 2023 that will break some of these droughts:
Carlton v West Coast, North Melbourne v West Coast.