Grand Final - Saturday 24 September, 2:30 PM at MCG

[i'm-uninformed2]

Its simple logic. Geelong are the same team as last year, but a year older. They have the same structural problems, and only a soft draw has got the to the top of the ladder. Check out their last 6 games of the H&A. They only played 1 other finalist (a wiltering Melbourne) since round 15* (Dogs fell into 8th, so I'm not counting them).

And they got to play West Coast and North twice. Thats 4 games (16 points) gifted!

I mean, I'm glad to be under-dog in the media, but no one remotely associated with the swans, even us fans, shouldnt believe we arent in a bloody great spot to add another flag to the trophy cabinet.


And look at the ladder against other top 8 sides before finals.

1. Sydney. W4, L2
2. Collingwood. W4, L2
3. Geelong W4, L3 (Lost to Sydney)
4. Freo W5, L5
5. Brisbane W3, L3
6. Melbourne W3, L4
7. Richmod W3, D1, L5
8. FairyPups W4, L6

The wins and losses of this finals series have pretty much followed this ladder. No team has beaten anyone more than 1 place above them.

Stuff this, I'm with Barry.

My head's been doing funny things since Saturday so I've given myself a good talking to, after being despondent about Reid.

At the start of the year, did I think he'd be structurally as important as anyone else in the side? No.
But did I think Robbie bloody Fox would be so crucial to our chances? No.
Did I think Ollie and his dancing feet would be so essential to our back seven? No.
Did I think Pat McCartin would be the best intercept defnder in the game? No.
Did I think our midfield of Mills, Parker, Chad and Rowie would be the match of any in the league? No.
Did I think Ryan Clarke would be the defensive small forward we desperately needed? No.
Did I think we'd be in a Grand freaking Final? No.

Yet, here we are, so let's all follow Barry and go win this thing!

[111431]

Stuff this, I'm with Barry.

My head's been doing funny things since Saturday so I've given myself a good talking to, after being despondent about Reid.

At the start of the year, did I think he'd be structurally as important as anyone else in the side? No.
But did I think Robbie bloody Fox would be so crucial to our chances? No.
Did I think Ollie and his dancing feet would be so essential to our back seven? No.
Did I think Pat McCartin would be the best intercept defnder in the game? No.
Did I think our midfield of Mills, Parker, Chad and Rowie would be the match of any in the league? No.
Did I think Ryan Clarke would be the defensive small forward we desperately needed? No.
Did I think we'd be in a Grand freaking Final? No.

Yet, here we are, so let's all follow Barry and go win this thing!

We have a very good record against them. In fact, if we played them at Kardinia Park we would probably start favourites! (lol) I think we would probably be the opponent they least preferred to play

[Ludwig]

The Brisbane - Geelong game only confirmed that you can't play a timid game against Geelong. They are just too solid and experienced if you give them any time and space.

The way we win is to play the way we beat Melbourne. A high pressure manic game. Take the ball through the corridor. Lots of movement and taking the game on from start to finish. I hope we have the energy to do it, but it takes more energy to defend that kind of game than to play it. Geelong are a very good turnover team, but if we just kick to contests down the line, we won't win.

[Matty10]

And look at the ladder against other top 8 sides before finals.

1. Sydney. W4, L2
2. Collingwood. W4, L2
3. Geelong W4, L3 (Lost to Sydney)
4. Freo W5, L5
5. Brisbane W3, L3
6. Melbourne W3, L4
7. Richmod W3, D1, L5
8. FairyPups W4, L6

I haven’t looked at all the stats, but our record was better than noted above. We were six wins (Cats, Tigers, Demons, Dogs, Dockers & Pies - not four) and two losses against the other final eight teams.

[KTigers]

Its simple logic. Geelong are the same team as last year, but a year older. They have the same structural problems, and only a soft draw has got the to the top of the ladder. Check out their last 6 games of the H&A. They only played 1 other finalist (a wiltering Melbourne) since round 15* (Dogs fell into 8th, so I'm not counting them).

And they got to play West Coast and North twice. Thats 4 games (16 points) gifted!

I mean, I'm glad to be under-dog in the media, but no one remotely associated with the swans, even us fans, shouldnt believe we arent in a bloody great spot to add another flag to the trophy cabinet.


And look at the ladder against other top 8 sides before finals.

1. Sydney. W4, L2
2. Collingwood. W4, L2
3. Geelong W4, L3 (Lost to Sydney)
4. Freo W5, L5
5. Brisbane W3, L3
6. Melbourne W3, L4
7. Richmod W3, D1, L5
8. FairyPups W4, L6

The wins and losses of this finals series have pretty much followed this ladder. No team has beaten anyone more than 1 place above them.

I can see where you are coming from. We are 5-and-0 against other teams in the Top 4. Geelong are 3-and-1.
Their For/Against scoring differential during the H & A was +658 points. But 275 (42%) of this came from their
four games against the Weagles and North who were AFL teams in name only this year. They probably don't have
Collingwood's ability to go into all out attack mode (and almost pull it off) if they were to find themselves six
goals down. They played a team that did roll over to have their tummy tickled when they got five or six goals
down in their Prelim. And that result flatters them, and sees them favourites to win ($1.55 v our $2.45).
I'm fine with the underdog tag. That won't be much consolation to Danger and co when they are brought to ground
by Rowy or Parker or whoever. Also I like to think our guys might be smarting a little about the fact that
Collingwood got back into the game on Saturday instead of being put to the sword, and they won't be letting
that happen again anytime soon. Besides, who really likes close games? It's much more relaxing when we are
miles ahead and the game is over at half time
I can see there are a bunch of new posts also supportive of Barry's bullishness, so maybe it's time we all got
onboard instead of hedging our bets with the "it's a 50/50 game" narrative thing.

[bloodspirit]

Let's absolutely smash them!

[bloodspirit]

The Brisbane - Geelong game only confirmed that you can't play a timid game against Geelong. They are just too solid and experienced if you give them any time and space.

The way we win is to play the way we beat Melbourne. A high pressure manic game. Take the ball through the corridor. Lots of movement and taking the game on from start to finish. I hope we have the energy to do it, but it takes more energy to defend that kind of game than to play it. Geelong are a very good turnover team, but if we just kick to contests down the line, we won't win.

I would have thought the same as you. However, in his analysis today David King suggested that, counter-intuitively, the opposite is true. He reckons we are well matched forward and back and that the game will be won and lost in the midfield. I'm not sure if I've heard anything so original before, but the counter intuitive comment was intriguing.

[cherub]

You mean you're surprised David King can use the word "counter-intuitive" correctly in a sentence?

[Ludwig]

I would have thought the same as you. However, in his analysis today David King suggested that, counter-intuitively, the opposite is true. He reckons we are well matched forward and back and that the game will be won and lost in the midfield. I'm not sure if I've heard anything so original before, but the counter intuitive comment was intriguing.

I haven't heard King's suggestion, but from what you've said, it's neither counter intuitive nor different from what I'm suggesting. I too think the game will be won through the midfield. Geelong have the best defensive record this year. Our defence has also been very solid. What I am saying relates more to the pace of the game, which I believe should be high, because a quicker game should favour us, unless we blunder a lot and turn the ball over. We have to be clever too and not just kick to dangerous places to prove we are brave. But rather, play on a lot, keep the game rolling along, in a manner similar to the way Collingwood like to play and Richmond were so successful with during their peak years.

[stevoswan]

We have a very good record against them. In fact, if we played them at Kardinia Park we would probably start favourites! (lol) I think we would probably be the opponent they least preferred to play

My daughters fiancé is a Geelong member and after we won against the Demons in the qualifying final he texted me with "Your Swans were scary good.....I hope we win tomorrow so we don't play you in a prelim."

I cheekily messaged back "Well, we may meet in the GF anyway".

Cats fans are more fearful of the Swans than any other team. They are scarred by our regular wins at Kardinia Park and fearful of how we dismantled Melbourne in the qualifying final.

They will be as nervous before the GF as we were before the prelim against Collingwood.

[barry]

... But rather, play on a lot, keep the game rolling along, in a manner similar to the way Collingwood like to play and Richmond were so successful with during their peak years.

collingwood's game plan doesnt work for the first half of most games because when players are fresh, its fairly easy to negate a plan-on-at-all-costs.
Its only when the game is nearing its end, and the players are tired, does it work. I dont think you can win enough games to win a flag like that

[bloodspirit]

I haven't heard King's suggestion, but from what you've said, it's neither counter intuitive nor different from what I'm suggesting. I too think the game will be won through the midfield. Geelong have the best defensive record this year. Our defence has also been very solid. What I am saying relates more to the pace of the game, which I believe should be high, because a quicker game should favour us, unless we blunder a lot and turn the ball over. We have to be clever too and not just kick to dangerous places to prove we are brave. But rather, play on a lot, keep the game rolling along, in a manner similar to the way Collingwood like to play and Richmond were so successful with during their peak years.

I don't think I misunderstood you, Ludwig, but I did a bad job of explaining what King said. King said that he thinks, ironically, that a high paced, manic game will favour Geelong and slower, controlled possession will suit the Swans.

If I get a chance I'll post the link. It's the SEN radio segment with Gerard Whately and fairly detailed game analysis.