Page 1 of 55 123451151 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 656

Thread: 2022 AFL National Draft and Rookie Draft 28 & 29 November 2022

  1. #1

    2022 AFL National Draft and Rookie Draft 28 & 29 November 2022

    I thought it might be worth creating a separate thread for draft-specific chat - so it doesn't get buried in all the rest of list management and trading chat (including trading of draft picks). I'm envisaging this thread as an opportunity to discuss draft prospects for the 2022 AFL national and rookie drafts and, in particular, who we might want to draft. This thread could also include discussion of possible draft strategies including in terms of trading forward or back in the draft - so there will inevitably be some overlap with the more general list management and trading thread.

    Currently we hold pick 14 and, let's say, 18 & 36. The first rounders will be pushed back one pick when the Lions match a bid for Ashcroft. The later pick might come in a couple of slots when the Lions match the bid on Ashcroft. Most likely we will just take 3 picks.

    What are our list needs? You can't have too many midfielders but, outside of our best 22 we have a number of very promising young midfield talents: Campbell, Sheldrick, Roberts and, you-never-know, perhaps Sheather.

    Conversely, in other areas of the ground the young players outside the best 22 look more serviceable than A-grade AFL talent e.g. Amartey, McLean, Melican, Ronke, Gould etc. etc. One exception is HHK who remains an unknown but looks like he has the talent to be seriously good. Corey Warner's future trajectory is also hard to predict but the ceiling is reasonable. Overall, I tend to think that with our first round picks we need to target players who have the potential to be future A-graders in positions around the ground other than midfield (although versatility is ideal). Especially we need to build some KPP depth.

    So, because I can't tell who is going to be available at our picks (and there are bound to be some excellent players still on the board including ones that we most likely rate substantially higher than our picks), I want to focus on discussing the players who might suit our needs best. To me this is KPPs, and then understudies to the likes of Papley, Hayward, & Florent.

    In terms of KPPs, at this stage it seems that Busslinger and Cadman will be taken by the time we have our first pick. If Busslinger were still available that would be brilliant - but KPDs are in high demand nowadays and so that probably won't happen. hat leaves options like Isaac Keeler (198 cm ruck-forward) and Lewis Hayes (197 cm key defender). Matthew Jefferson (195 cm KPP) and Harry Barnett (202 cm ruck) are other tall options. I don't pretend to have the ability to discern which ones are the best or most promising but I note Lewis Hayes height, late birthday (17 December) and good development this year as reasons he might be a good option for us. It will be interesting to see how he does at the draft combine because I wonder if he may have a poor tank (like his older brother Sam).

    Another player I really like the look of is Tasmanian, Lachie Cowan. He's a speedy rebounding 188 cm half back i.e. someone who could be the understudy for Blakey. However, chances are we might prefer one of the available gun midfielders. We could cross our fingers and toes that Cowan is still available at our second round pick.

    What do you think?

    Is Hayes worthy of consideration with one of our first rounders? Would you be happy if we took him?

    Should we considering trading up on draft night to nab Busslinger if we can? Would we be prepared to give picks 14 & 36 to get Busslinger and say a 3rd rounder back?

    Should we try to trade both our first rounders and get up the order for some specific player you have your heart set on?

    Here are a couple of useful links:

    Cal Twomey's last (August) phantom form guide: Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' August ranking (afl.com.au).

    Rookie Me Central September power rankings: AFL Draft Power Rankings - September 2022 - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central

    ESPN Chris Doerre's September power rankings: AFL Draft 2022 Phantom Draft Power Rankings September - Surprise at No.2, Bolters make their move (espn.com.au)
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  2. #2
    Veterans List
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Crowland :-(
    Posts
    5,741
    Good thread idea to separate talk of draftees from the broader list management thread.

    This season finds us where we have been so often in the past, mid to late teens territory where all the obvious top picks have been selected and you are into more subtle choices.

    You can just about bank on Twomey, he's got the inside running with recruiters, his predictions are never too far from where players will land. Rookie Me Central has a fairly good record and ESPN's Chris Doerre AKA Knightmare is useful.

    Layering all three on top of each other there is common ground to a large extent before our picks, you could comfortably put lines through 12 to 13 players as almost certainly gone, I'll name them so we can rule them out of discussion as I doubt any would slip to our first pick

    1. Will Ashcroft should be bid on by Norf if they have any brains to extract the maximum out of Brisbane
    2. George Wardlaw
    3. Elijah Tsatas
    4. Harry Sheezel
    5. Jhye Clark
    6. Aaron Cadman the first KP taken
    7. Cam McKenzie
    8. Bailey Humphrey
    9. Mattaes Phillipou (SA)
    10. Matt Jefferson KPF
    11. Reuben Ginbey (WA)
    12. Elijah Hewett (WA)
    13. Jedd Busslinger KPD (WA)

    After this it becomes a little less certain, a couple of F/S should get bid on mid teens to early 20s, Alwyn Davey (Essendon) and Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane) although with the latter I just can't see how Brisbane have enough picks/points for Dunkley, Ashcroft and Fletcher so maybe Fletcher they can't match?

    I'll come back with more discussion but the above (hopefully) lays the groundwork IMO, meanwhile have a think about what we need with our first two picks, our third pick will be late 30s/40'ish depending on picks used to match F/S and compo picks still to be handed out, notably Amon and McStay at this stage
    Last edited by 707; 20th September 2022 at 04:26 PM.

  3. #3
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    8,935
    Good thread start bloodspirit. I think you've summed things up pretty well.

    One exception that I will take, is that you can have too many midfielders. When it happens, you have to offload players like Tom Mitchell and George Hewett. Our midfield group is quite young, with Parker likely to be the first to go several years from now, so there doesn't seem to be many opportunities for newly drafted midfielders to break into the side any time soon. It doesn't really pay to put much focus on midfielders the next couple of years. We will draft a few anyway, because we can't just stock up on KPPs.

    The KPPs you've mentioned are the ones I would be looking at as well. It's a good year to pick up a couple of KPPs with a nice representation in the top 30 prospects for most draft followers.

    With Franklin, Reid, Rampe and Hickey the most likely best 22 players to depart after 2023, 2024, this is the time to work on their replacements, even if we are just talking about depth. We all know it can take a fair few years to develop a good KPP and longer for ruckmen.

    If we want to keep the show rolling along and continue to play finals, we have to plan ahead and fill the holes in our list before they even open.

  4. #4
    Thanks 707.

    A couple of points in reply:

    1. Cal Twomey is reliable for his Phantom Draft - not so much his Phantom Form Guide which is a different thing and not to be confused. He doesn't release his phantom draft until just before the draft actually happens and he's updating it even the day of the draft. I don't know how Cal's form guide stacks up against the other power rankings for accuracy in the long run. If anyone knows of anywhere that this analysis can be found, I'd be very interested. I expect it has been done.

    2. Even after all the matches have been played, even after the combines are completed, the pundits' (and, I daresay, recruiters') rankings continue to change - every year it's the same. I find it a bit odd but somehow the recruiters keep reviewing the matches played earlier in the year and update their knowledge with draftee interviews etc., and then either find things they missed or re-weight what they already saw and change their rankings. So while those prospects you have listed above may be the consensus top 13 odd players right now, it will probably change a bit before the draft and at least one of those players will still be available at our pick 14/15. Which doesn't mean we should necessarily take that player. A bit like with Matthew Johnson last draft - he was universally tipped to be taken much earlier than our first pick but as it happened he was still available and we still didn't take him and instead we reached for Angus Sheldrick and let Johnson slip through to Freo.

    Philipou is a prospect who has divergent ratings based on the evaluation that his projected ceiling is really high but his actual production so far isn't as solid. Is that the kind of player we would want? Every year there are players that were projected to be really high but get injured or who are super-talented but have questionable temperaments or maybe just are still quite raw or skinny or otherwise underdeveloped. I guess you have to evaluate them all on a case-by-case basis but in principle is this high risk-high reward type player appealing or would you rather go for the known quantity with first rounders?
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  5. #5
    I tend to agree that key forwards and backs should be our focus but I would add a ruckman as Hickey is not young. Perhaps the ruck/forward that you mentioned might be worth a go?

    Having said all of that, the Swans have a "best available" draft philosophy, so if a gun midfielder that our recruiters rate highly is still available come our picks, don't be surprised if we go for him.

  6. #6
    I think “best available” is a bit of a smokescreen recruiters hide behind.

  7. #7
    The flavour of the recent KB interview, plus the recruitment of Francis, are tending to suggest we may not invest all our chips in KPPs this draft. I'm still pretty keen on Keeler. Like Ludwig, I have cooled on Hayes. I had some interest in Gruzewski but KB's and Dalrymple's comments have led me to doubt whether we have much faith in this draft beyond the top 10.

    My hope remains we can trade up our two first rounders and use them to get Humphrey or Phillipou and hopefully a decent 2nd rounder back the other way.

    Alternatively, if we are stuck with our current picks, apart from Keeler I'm interested in Cowan. If we want to try a small with a first rounder for a change, could we consider Konstanty? He could be groomed to fill that role that has been occupied by Wicks/Bell/Clarke after Sheldrick has moved into the midfield.

    Or, if we still want a tall, would either of the ruck Barnett or KPF Lemmey be of interest? I don't want to roll the dice on a project ruck with a relatively high pick. If Lemmey is there at our now pick 42 I'd be interested. He's tall and was in top 5 contention until he had a bad year this year. Clearly he's no longer rated a first rounder.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  8. #8
    Henry Hustwaite? Darcy Jones? Brayden George? Ed Allen looks promising too, as others have noted.
    All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

  9. #9
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    8,935
    Quote Originally Posted by bloodspirit View Post
    Henry Hustwaite? Darcy Jones? Brayden George? Ed Allen looks promising too, as others have noted.
    I like these suggestions. Allen and Hustwaite give the flexibility of midfielders who can play KPP roles, like Blakey. Jones may be too short for a team that's already a bit short, but like what he offers. Binns is another shorter player that impressed. George might be a top 10 pick except for the ACL. I'm not sure, but this might be his 2nd ACL. It's hard to rate players coming off serious injuries.

  10. #10
    Reefer Madness
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    in a yellow submarine
    Posts
    3,469
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludwig View Post
    I like these suggestions. Allen and Hustwaite give the flexibility of midfielders who can play KPP roles, like Blakey. Jones may be too short for a team that's already a bit short, but like what he offers. Binns is another shorter player that impressed. George might be a top 10 pick except for the ACL. I'm not sure, but this might be his 2nd ACL. It's hard to rate players coming off serious injuries.
    I'm not recommending we take shortish, lighter midfielders, but if we do I'm interested in Oliver Hollands. He has elite running patterns and capacity and excellent skills. Would absolutely motor up and down the ground all day. He might be grabbed just before our first two picks, but if he falls our way, I won't be disappointed.
    'Delicious' is a fun word to say

  11. #11
    Veterans List Ludwig's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    8,935
    Quote Originally Posted by i'm-uninformed2 View Post
    I'm not recommending we take shortish, lighter midfielders, but if we do I'm interested in Oliver Hollands. He has elite running patterns and capacity and excellent skills. Would absolutely motor up and down the ground all day. He might be grabbed just before our first two picks, but if he falls our way, I won't be disappointed.
    I would definitely take Hollands at our pick if he's still around, but he's more likely to fall around pick 10. If we do end up with our current picks, there are always players that unexpectedly slide down in every draft and we might pick up someone who we expected to go top 10.

  12. #12
    Regular in the Side
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    914
    I would still be interested in Harry Boyd with either our 3rd pick or as a rookie. Ruck with a similar body to Nankervis and better tank and mark. A far better starting age for a project ruck than a skinny 18yo.

Page 1 of 55 123451151 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO