Rnd 16 - vs Geelong at SCG, 7:50 PM, Friday 30 June 2023

**Thunder Shaker** · 26th June 2023, 07:12 PM

Originally Posted by Ludwig

I have a feeling that McCartin may spend another week in the VFL, and the only change might be Hayward in for Clarke. Maybe Fox plays forward and Hayward is the sub. Worth waiting until the injury update before making predictions.

We have to go 7-2 from here to make finals, so this is a really big game in that context. We can't afford another home game loss.

This implies a 13-10 record. I doubt this many games would be needed to make the finals this year. 12-11 and a good percentage may be good enough.

We play the sides currently placed 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 14th. If we're good enough to make the finals, we should beat most of them. That's a pretty solid run of eight-point games.

**707** · 26th June 2023, 07:28 PM

Yes, all of them are 8 point games, just got to keep winning, starting this week against the 9th side who have been ordinary away from their sausage of a ground.

Other than the top 4, the rest are nothing special - Essendon haven't beaten a top 9 side!

**waswan** · 26th June 2023, 07:40 PM

Melican stays, only one with a chance on Hawkins

If they want to bring Buddy in they should for Clarke and play him high HFF

We arent dropping Logan, Amartey or Mclean, so leave them and play Buddy high.

Id put
Fox for Harry, as an intercept
Buddy for Clarke
Mccartin for Francis
Hayward Sub

Rampe as the Lockdown

**Nico** · 26th June 2023, 07:50 PM

The forward line worked better without Hayward.

**waswan** · 26th June 2023, 08:34 PM

Originally Posted by Nico

The forward line worked better without Hayward.

Wouldnt take a thing out of that game

**Ludwig** · 26th June 2023, 09:02 PM

Originally Posted by Nico

The forward line worked better without Hayward.

Lucky he got gastro, or we might have lost that game.

**chalbilto** · 26th June 2023, 09:03 PM

I think that there should be minimal changes baring injuries, for the match against Geelong. Maybe bring Tom Mc back and I wouldn't mind if Buddy had another week off.

**Thunder Shaker** · 26th June 2023, 10:57 PM

Originally Posted by 707

Yes, all of them are 8 point games, just got to keep winning, starting this week against the 9th side who have been ordinary away from their sausage of a ground.

Other than the top 4, the rest are nothing special - Essendon haven't beaten a top 9 side!

If anyone's interested in possible outcomes, there's this resource that runs Monte Carlo simulations on the rest of the season: Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor
I ran it a few times and it mostly had us finishing 11th to 14th. The highest I got to after about two dozen runs was ninth (with 12 wins, 8th had 13 wins).

8th place was as small as 12 wins plus percentage, but 13 wins seemed to be more common.

**troyjones2525** · 26th June 2023, 11:10 PM

If Buddy comes in, we need to ensure his knee is right and then play him in the old Richo role from his latter years on a wing so he can deliver the ball into Logan, Amarty, Heeney and McLean!

Could be a season defining move!

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