Round 22: the other games. We could be fifth.

**dejavoodoo44** · 11th August 2023, 04:50 PM

Just looking through the various permutations, there is a reasonable chance that we could end the round in fifth position. Sure, it's quite long odds, but those odds are a whole lot shorter, then say, Paps hosting a Swans sponsored, footy tipping podcast.

To start the ball rolling, we need Collingwood to beat Geelong tonight. Which has been made more difficult with the injuries to Daicos and Sidebottom, but Collingwood still have potential to tire the large Geelong bodies, by making them run to every corner of the MCG. As they did in their round one victory, when they kicked the last eight goals.

Obviously the next thing that needs to happen, is for us to have a percentage boosting victory over Gold Coast on Saturday. Which is perfectly feasible, especially if they feel like they've already blown their finals chances.

Next we need Melbourne to give Carlton a bit of a hiding on Saturday night. I'm not sure if there's some sort of reasonably simple algebraic equation, to work out possible percentage rise and falls, but I suspect something like a forty point win for us and a forty point loss for Carlton could see us get in front of them. But of course, there is a huge range of scenarios.

Then perhaps the least likely of the required results, is for Hawthorn to beat the Western Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon in Launceston. But who knows, maybe they'll be full of confidence after their win over Collingwood.

Then we need Richmond to beat St Kilda. Which is quite possible, since both teams have been in mediocre form.

Finally, Port have to beat GWS. Strangely, they are favourites after losing four in a row, but I assume their wheels haven't fallen totally off, so, go Port.

Simple.

**barry** · 11th August 2023, 09:12 PM

I'm going for Geelong. Nothing like seeing the wheels fall off for Collingwood

**Kafka's Ghost** · 11th August 2023, 09:22 PM

Originally Posted by barry

I'm going for Geelong. Nothing like seeing the wheels fall off for Collingwood

The wheels are spinning off into a ditch so far. Darcy Moore looks like he’s done a hamstring and Geelong are all over them.

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**dejavoodoo44** · 11th August 2023, 09:22 PM

Originally Posted by barry

I'm going for Geelong. Nothing like seeing the wheels fall off for Collingwood

Looks like a big wheel just fell off, with Darcy Moore appearing to do a hamstring.

**i'm-uninformed2** · 11th August 2023, 09:24 PM

The only saving grace for the Pies on the Moore injury is hammies are often three weeks, which would get him back for the first week of the finals. Except, Moore has a history of bad hamstring injuries.

**liz** · 11th August 2023, 09:25 PM

I heard on Fox this week that around nine Port players have been ill during the week, which adds to the injury woes that have already been building up. So unless we've broken the spirit of GWS, I expect them to win that game. They've shown no problem travelling this season.

Regardless of where we finish on the ladder at the end of this round, having Richmond beat St Kilda will help our longer range finals chances (if we have taken care of Gold Coast). I played around with the ladder predictor this week and realised that it was possible for us to miss the top eight even if we miraculously won our last three games. That would need the Saints, Dogs and Giants to also win their last three games. None of them plays each other. The Saints do have a tough run, so even if they beat Richmond it would be an impressive effort for them to win all three.

Mind you, it will be an impressive effort for us to win all three as well. But that's for another thread.

**Sandridge** · 11th August 2023, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by barry

I'm going for Geelong. Nothing like seeing the wheels fall off for Collingwood

I'm with you. I know a Collingwood win is much better for us but I just can't barrack for them. 3 Pie losses in a row and the drop in confidence that would ensue would be lovely to see.

Cats on top at quarter time and Collingwood have another injury concern with Darcy Moore off with what appears to be hamstring problems.

**i'm-uninformed2** · 11th August 2023, 09:38 PM

Originally Posted by liz

I heard on Fox this week that around nine Port players have been ill during the week, which adds to the injury woes that have already been building up. So unless we've broken the spirit of GWS, I expect them to win that game. They've shown no problem travelling this season.

Regardless of where we finish on the ladder at the end of this round, having Richmond beat St Kilda will help our longer range finals chances (if we have taken care of Gold Coast). I played around with the ladder predictor this week and realised that it was possible for us to miss the top eight even if we miraculously won our last three games. That would need the Saints, Dogs and Giants to also win their last three games. None of them plays each other. The Saints do have a tough run, so even if they beat Richmond it would be an impressive effort for them to win all three.

Mind you, it will be an impressive effort for us to win all three as well. But that's for another thread.

The Saints will fall out of the eight. As you say, they have a tough run, plus their form is crap. Geelong will take their spot.

My guess is it’s then down to GWS, Adelaide and us for the final slot, with the loser of the Crows/Swans game next week to be eliminated.