Real ranking of teams during bye rounds - 2024 edition

[Thunder Shaker]

Last year, I posted this thread: The real ranking of teams during the bye rounds. I'm creating a new version of this thread for the 2024 season, because several rounds have teams with different numbers of games played.

After the Opening Round, this is less meaningful because 10 teams have not played a game yet.

                      P  Pts  Perc W-L
Gold Coast Suns       1   4  165.0  +1
GWS Giants            1   4  139.0  +1
Sydney Swans          1   4  134.4  +1
Carlton               1   4  101.2  +1
Adelaide Crows        0   0    0.0   0
Essendon              0   0    0.0   0
Fremantle             0   0    0.0   0
Geelong Cats          0   0    0.0   0
Hawthorn              0   0    0.0   0
North Melbourne       0   0    0.0   0
Port Adelaide         0   0    0.0   0
St Kilda              0   0    0.0   0
West Coast Eagles     0   0    0.0   0
Western Bulldogs      0   0    0.0   0
Brisbane Lions        1   0   98.8  -1
Melbourne             1   0   74.4  -1
Collingwood           1   0   71.9  -1
Richmond              1   0   60.6  -1

[Thunder Shaker]

After all teams have played, the adjusted ladder becomes more meaningful.

* A normal round 1 ladder would have all teams on +1 or -1, except on rare occasions when teams have drawn in round 1, as Richmond and Carlton did last year. This adjusted ladder has four teams on +2 (wins minus losses), one team on 0, and three teams on -2.
* Melbourne is the only team that has the same number of wins and losses. Other teams with one win have no losses, so objectively they have outperformed Melbourne (one win and one loss).
* Three teams that lost in the Opening Round lost again in round 1. They have more ground to make up compared to the teams with only one loss, so they are placed at the bottom.

                  P  Pt Perc  W-L
GWS Giants        2  8  143.3 +2
Sydney Swans      2  8  141.4 +2
Gold Coast Suns   2  8  139.5 +2
Carlton           2  8  103.6 +2
Port Adelaide     1  4  171.4 +1
Fremantle         1  4  132.9 +1
Essendon          1  4  128.9 +1
Geelong Cats      1  4  111.8 +1
Melbourne         2  4  115.3  0
Adelaide Crows    1  0   90.0 -1
St Kilda          1  0   89.5 -1
Hawthorn          1  0   77.6 -1
North Melbourne   1  0   67.8 -1
Western Bulldogs  1  0   58.7 -1
West Coast Eagles 1  0   58.3 -1
Brisbane Lions    2  0   86.6 -2
Richmond          2  0   76.2 -2
Collingwood       2  0   69.9 -2

[Thunder Shaker]

This week the teams with two wins have performed less well if they also have a loss (Melbourne and Gold Coast) when compared to the teams that have two wins and no losses. At the bottom, Collingwood and Richmond have more losses than the other winless teams so they are ranked lower.

These four teams end up being ranked lower because they have fewer opportunities remaining to make up ground over the rest of the season. For example, it will take to round seven before Collingwood and Richmond have a chance of getting back level (3 wins, 3 losses plus a bye), but the teams with 2 losses only need two more rounds to do this. Therefore, Collingwood and Richmond must be lower on the ladder than every other team. That's what this "real ranking" shows.

Round 2

                  P  Pt Perc  W-L
GWS Giants        3  12 165.7  +3
Sydney Swans      3  12 136.3  +3
Port Adelaide     2   8 149.4  +2
Fremantle         2   8 133.6  +2
Geelong Cats      2   8 118.6  +2
Carlton           2   8 103.6  +2
Melbourne         3   8 141.5  +1
Gold Coast Suns   3   8  98.7  +1
St Kilda          2   4 104.5   0
Western Bulldogs  2   4 101.7   0
Essendon          2   4  97.2   0
Brisbane Lions    2   0  86.6  -2
Adelaide Crows    2   0  84.0  -2
North Melbourne   2   0  70.9  -2
Hawthorn          2   0  60.5  -2
West Coast Eagles 2   0  49.6  -2
Richmond          3   0  75.9  -3
Collingwood       3   0  74.2  -3

[Thunder Shaker]

Four teams that played in the Opening Round have yet to have their byes. Collingwood and Sydney have a bye next week, and Melbourne and Richmond have their byes the following week.

Collingwood improved their position after their win against Brisbane. Sydney's loss against Richmond at the MCG in a perennial danger game cost the Swans a chance to go on top of the ladder and Sydney are now back in the pack behind four undefeated teams.

The teams can be broadly divided into two groups, the top 10 with more wins than losses, and the bottom seven with two or more losses than wins. St Kilda sits outside both groups with a good percentage.

                  P  Pts  Perc W-L
GWS GIANTS        3  12 165.7  +3
Fremantle         3  12 146.7  +3
Geelong Cats      3  12 129.3  +3
Carlton           3  12 125.1  +3
Melbourne         4  12 130.7  +2
Sydney Swans      4  12 125.3  +2
Western Bulldogs  3   8 138.3  +1
Port Adelaide     3   8 128.3  +1
Essendon          3   8  99.3  +1
Gold Coast SUNS   3   8  98.7  +1
St Kilda          3   4 101.3  -1
Collingwood       4   4  84.3  -2
Richmond          4   4  82.0  -2
Brisbane Lions    3   0  83.8  -3
Adelaide Crows    3   0  73.3  -3
North Melbourne   3   0  66.4  -3
Hawthorn          3   0  62.4  -3
West Coast Eagles 3   0  42.8  -3

[Thunder Shaker]

With the bye rounds now taking place, some teams have played more games than others.

This version of the ladder ranks teams by wins minus losses, with each step on the wins minus losses sum being mathematically equivalent to half a game. This can be seen by noting that a team with a 7-5 record is +2, a team with 6-5-1 record is +1, and a team with 6-6 is at zero.

As it happens, this week the "real ranking" is the same as the regular ladder, but this is not always true. It also shows how far ahead Sydney is on top of the ladder (two games ahead of Essendon; drawn games are disregarded with this model), and how far behind Richmond and North Melbourne are (Richmond is two games behind the Eagles).

The adjusted ladder:

                   P  Pts  Perc  W-L
Sydney Swans       11  40  150.1  +9
Essendon           12  34  102.8  +5
Geelong Cats       12  32  112.9  +4
Port Adelaide      12  32  111.7  +4
Carlton            12  32  108.0  +4
Fremantle          12  30  121.4  +3
GWS GIANTS         11  28  114.6  +3
Gold Coast SUNS    12  28  108.6  +2
Collingwood        12  28  104.6  +2
Melbourne          12  28  104.3  +2
Western Bulldogs   12  24  121.3   0
Hawthorn           12  20   86.7  -2
Brisbane Lions     11  18  111.6  -2
Adelaide Crows     12  18  108.6  -3
St Kilda           12  16   92.6  -4
West Coast Eagles  12  12   71.7  -6
Richmond           12   4   62.2 -10
North Melbourne    11   0   55.9 -11