Swans v Dogs Gamethread

[stevoswan]

I frankly can't remember what this argument is about, but I would certainly be highly offended if anyone accused me of having a job or even doing an honest day's work.

But it's the next part that I'm really commenting on. Those are great titles stevo. There was once a
School of Not Taking Responsibility. It was called Trump University. In fact I have a diploma from there and graduated Sigmund Come Louder.

Do you have a copyright on 'The Art of the Half-arsed Apology'? If not, I will drop everything and start writing a book with that title. It has best seller written all over it.

I don't and you may have that title with my blessing.....plus a 1% commission on each book sold!

[Meg]

If by "worse free kick ratio" you mean frees for - frees against = the most negative: Richmond are the worst, or equal worst, in 3 of the 4 seasons 2017-2020. That was mentioned earlier in this thread and illustrated in another.

I understand the relentless focus on this statistic - it's about the only free kick statistic available to us - but really, it is often misused and has very little bearing on game outcomes or club success. I wish I could get people to believe this.

I too wish you could get people to believe this. Unfortunately it seems to be an impossible task.

[Faunac8]

I am bemused to hear that some believe a lopsided free kick count has very little bearing on game outcomes.
Surely incorrect decisions that impact on ball movement and stop a teams progress while on attack or those that lead to a free kick against defenders in the forward 50 for example have the potential to impact on not only the scoreboard but also the mindset of players?
In my opinion an inconsistent interpretation of the rules by umpires is probably more of a concern to players and spectators than the actual numbers for and against.
For the record I don’t think that any umpire consciously makes decisions with a view to impacting on a particular team or player , however is it not possible that as human beings they may be inclined to subconsciously make decisions based on their personal feelings , thoughts or perceptions ?

[neilfws]

I am bemused to hear that some believe a lopsided free kick count has very little bearing on game outcomes.

As an example: statistically, when you look at many games, there is no significant relationship between free kick differential and margin. Which is to say, the extra free kicks are not leading to many more goals.

The problem is, our minds focus on those occasions when (a) there was a lopsided count and (b) we lost.

As Meg says, getting people to believe this is almost impossible

[Ruck'n'Roll]

The problem is, our minds focus on those occasions when (a) there was a lopsided count and (b) we lost.

Sure there's an element of that - but I think that at less emotionaly charged moments, all we really want is an explanation as to why the Swans have received less free kicks than their opponents every single season for more than two decades.

As an example: statistically, when you look at many games, there is no significant relationship between free kick differential and margin. Which is to say, the extra free kicks are not leading to many more goals.

You've presented this argument on several occasions, but I don't remember seeing much evidance that there's no significant relationship between free kick differential and margins.

The link you include took me back to your post in March about the 2017-20 Richmond Free kick differential chart.

Which showed that the Tigers copped a heavier free kick differential in 2018, than in 2017, 2019 or 2020. So the only thing it suggested to me was that you can win a flag with a negative free kick differential, but the more negative the free kick differential is, the less likely you are to win a flag.
Neither of which are exactly earth shaking - or likely to bring about the desired paradigm shift. I think most of us would be quite happy to have our minds changed, so please have another go at it when time allows.

[neilfws]

Which showed that the Tigers copped a heavier free kick differential in 2018, than in 2017, 2019 or 2020. So the only thing it suggested to me was that you can win a flag with a negative free kick differential, but the more negative the free kick differential is, the less likely you are to win a flag.

What it said to me is that the Tigers won 2 out of their 3 flags with the most negative (or equal most-negative) free kick differential in those 2 seasons.

But you're right, I am guilty there of picking one example to illustrate a point. I can see I'm going to need a bigger chart

[Hotpotato]

That Bounce Show should highlight Umpy Clangers as well as players clangers ..,.

[Faunac8]

As an example: statistically, when you look at many games, there is no significant relationship between free kick differential and margin. Which is to say, the extra free kicks are not leading to many more goals.

The problem is, our minds focus on those occasions when (a) there was a lopsided count and (b) we lost.

As Meg says, getting people to believe this is almost impossible

Did you read and assess the rest of my post ? I ask because you seem to be fixated on statistics and haven’t addressed my question of the potential impact that debatable or dubious decisions have on players and the flow of games.
I understand that this is not something that is quantifiable however I still believe it has an impact on games.
If you feel that free kicks have no impact in any way on games and results then we can happily agree to disagree.

[707]

I am bemused to hear that some believe a lopsided free kick count has very little bearing on game outcomes.
Surely incorrect decisions that impact on ball movement and stop a teams progress while on attack or those that lead to a free kick against defenders in the forward 50 for example have the potential to impact on not only the scoreboard but also the mindset of players?
In my opinion an inconsistent interpretation of the rules by umpires is probably more of a concern to players and spectators than the actual numbers for and against.
For the record I don’t think that any umpire consciously makes decisions with a view to impacting on a particular team or player , however is it not possible that as human beings they may be inclined to subconsciously make decisions based on their personal feelings , thoughts or perceptions ?

Number 14 tried hard on Sunday to keep the Dogs in the game, made a couple of male bovine manure decisions that resulted in goals

[bloodspirit]

Did you read and assess the rest of my post ? I ask because you seem to be fixated on statistics and haven’t addressed my question of the potential impact that debatable or dubious decisions have on players and the flow of games.
I understand that this is not something that is quantifiable however I still believe it has an impact on games.
If you feel that free kicks have no impact in any way on games and results then we can happily agree to disagree.

I don't think neilfws is saying that any particular free kick doesn't have an impact on a game. I think he is saying that overall the free kick differential has minimal correlation with results and team success.

A good example, but certainly not a conclusive demonstration of the point is that Richmond won premierships in 2017 & 2020 (and made prelim 2018) despite having the worst free kick differential of all teams.

Presumably, if you look at a team's free kick differential over a season it will have no clear correlation with ladder position.

[Markwebbos]

I have a dream …

That one day umpiring will have it’s own thread and match day threads won’t all be overrun by “discussion” about umpires.

[Faunac8]

I have a dream …

That one day umpiring will have it’s own thread and match day threads won’t all be overrun by “discussion” about umpires.

Great idea I agree that sometimes the subject does derail the thread and in this instance we even digressed as far as to discuss the correct Twitter etiquette when assessing umpire conduct and performance.
Can I then suggest why not make your dream come true 😀 what do they say
If it is to be then it is up to me