top 4 a fraction harder - includes spoilers of Sunday games

**swantastic** · 27th August 2006, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by 573v30
Does that mean we will win by 50 more points than expected?

No Fev or Bazza this week IMO.

**Bob Neil** · 27th August 2006, 11:18 PM

I could be a little paranoid but....

I reckon Wet Toast (and Crows) would prefer not to play Swans in first week, even at home, therefore happy for Swans to be outside of top 4. Swans did OK in Adelaide this year but Crows have embarrassed Swans at SCG in the last few years...

Didn't see Freo V WCE - did WCE try?

***NMWBloods*** · 27th August 2006, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Bob Neil
I could be a little paranoid but....

I reckon Wet Toast (and Crows) would prefer not to play Swans in first week, even at home, therefore happy for Swans to be outside of top 4. Swans did OK in Adelaide this year but Crows have embarrassed Swans at SCG in the last few years...

Didn't see Freo V WCE - did WCE try?

West Coast would also not like to play Freo in the first week either(although in a return finals match I think WC will win).

**swantastic** · 27th August 2006, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by NMWBloods
West Coast would also not like to play Freo in the first week either(although in a return finals match I think WC will win).

WC want Melb to finish 4th and us to play Adel,i would be happy with that.

***SimonH*** · 28th August 2006, 01:21 AM

Mostly a bad weekend for other team's results for us. Melbourne's draw might as well have been a win; the only difference is that another draw won't cut it for them against Adelaide, which I'm sure won't overly concern them.

While the teams in front of us have done us no favours, we have almost certainly staved off what was a real danger from the rear (so to speak). A good margin in a low-scoring game for us, and Collingwood/St Kilda victories that were convincing but not enormous, means that they've both got (hopefully) unrealistic margins to make up to get ahead of our percentage. We're 105 points ahead of St Kilda (on an almost exactly equal net score). While on plus-and-minus we've got 'only' 64 points on Collingwood, their far-larger net scoring tally means that they need to go about 135 points to the good to catch our percentage. Of course, percentage only matters if all 3 teams win (or all 3 teams lose!). Even presuming we only beat Carlton by one point, St Kilda's task would be stunningly difficult, and Collingwood's just about impossible.

Don't make any mistake about Adelaide going in hard next week (albeit they'll be pretty undermanned). Firstly, they desperately need a win for their confidence. No team, not even one that's finished 2nd, can go into the finals on the back of losing 4 in a row feeling anything other than, 'we're just here to make up the numbers'. Secondly, there is a chance that if they lose to Melbourne in Adelaide, their first week's final will be against Melbourne in Adelaide. Not a good look.

After round 13, if you had asked a bookmaker to quote you odds that Freo and Adelaide would finish the season on the same number of wins, and you were quoted 1000:1, you could have accused the bookmaker of being too stingy. Seriously, back then, such a possibility was up there with 'The second coming will happen before the end of the year, with Elvis coming back to rule over us all'. Now it's a real chance of happening. All together now: Footy's A Funny Game.

**swantastic** · 28th August 2006, 07:23 AM

Very interesting

**Agent 86** · 28th August 2006, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by Bart
Yeah you're right. we should be sitting at 20-1.

Cheeky! I think the point is that just one of 'em would have us in much better posi.

**Agent 86** · 28th August 2006, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by ugg
Because we would have won that St Kilda match! (disregarding the causal effects)

We've been shafted a few times in dodgy goal umpire decisions including last night.

We're not alone on the goal umpiring decisions. Port were robbed of a goal late against the Pies which would have sealed an(other) upset. I find it amazing that the goal maggots continue to get it wrong when they only have 1 thing to do. The entire crowd saw Sherman's goal hit the post & the goal umpie misses it from 4 inches away.