That damn Premiership window (aka How does 2010 look?)

[SimonH]

There's a lot of talk about hangin' on too long with an ageing list in the hope of grabbing a premiership (or two or three) before the 'window' closes and you're supposedly consigned to the bottom for a few years. Just like Sydney was consigned to the bottom before the 2003 season started. Hah!

So: Do we have too many quality but ageing players, so that we're setting ourselves up for misery in 3 years' time?

I've mentioned previously that, Inshallah, 16 of the 22 players who ran out for the Swans in the 2006 GF could/should still be with us and firing for the 2010 season.

Of the other 6, Tadhg and Micky O are the only certainties to go. Leo Barry, BBBH, Kirk are all at least as likely as not to have retired by end 2009, but I'll take a punt that one of them will play into 2010. Ben Mathews-- well, let's not turn this into another Ben Mathews thread. Just note that he turns 30 in 2008. Of the non-GF players, the only one with any age is Jared Crouch turning 30 in 2008.

Compare this with the Brisbane Lions 2003 premiership team, looking at which of its number will be running around for the Blions in 2007 (an equivalent stretch of time).

Brisbane may have 10 of its 2003 premiership players available for the 2007 season (if they don't trade Bradshaw). Also, if you look at the 12 who they've lost, there isn't a fringe player among them. More like a cavalcade of stars.

Traded: Blake Caracella (end '04), Jason Akermanis (end '06).
Retired: Marcus Ashcroft (end '03), Alastair Lynch (end '04), Shaun Hart (end '04), Craig McRae (end '04), Martin Pike ('05), Darryl White (end '05), Justin Leppitsch ('06), Mal Michael (end '06), Michael Voss (end '06).
Delisted: Clark Keating (end '06).

By comparison, we're doing alright. Provided we keep managing the list and don't sell off core early-to-mid 20s players for perceived short-term gain.

The current look of the list will really start disintegrating by about 2012, as all of Goodes, Nic Fosdike, Jude Bolton, Nick Davis, Craig Bolton, Ryan O'Keefe, Stephen Doyle and Darren Jolly will turn 30 in 2010-11. But that's half-a-career away, by which stage Chris Judd will be a veteran. What club could say that its list won't be massively different come 2012?

[Guzzitza]

Originally posted by SimonH

I've mentioned previously that, Inshallah, 16 of the 22 players who ran out for the Swans in the 2006 GF could/should still be with us and firing for the 2010 season.

Of the other 6, Tadhg and Micky O are the only certainties to go. Leo Barry, BBBH, Kirk are all at least as likely as not to have retired by end 2009, but I'll take a punt that one of them will play into 2010.

Sure 16 of the 22 should still be with us, but its not the numbers, its the quality of players leaving

Tadgh, Mick O, + Possibly - Leo, BBBH, Kirk

Your basically talking about our MOST influential players, the game breakers . If the "possibles" are still playing they will be near the end of their careers so may not have as greater impact anymore too.
I would argue, the other significants who would be left are only O'Keefe and Goodes.

If someone said to you: "Hey, next season, you wont have Micky, Tadgh, Leo, BBBH, and Kirk... "

Would you be thinking, I'm in for a miserable season? I would.

[AnnieH]

Inshulla I get a crystal ball !!

[SimonH]

Originally posted by Guzzitza
Sure 16 of the 22 should still be with us, but its not the numbers, its the quality of players leaving

Tadgh, Mick O, + Possibly - Leo, BBBH, Kirk

Your basically talking about our MOST influential players, the game breakers . If the "possibles" are still playing they will be near the end of their careers so may not have as greater impact anymore too.
I would argue, the other significants who would be left are only O'Keefe and Goodes.

If someone said to you: "Hey, next season, you wont have Micky, Tadgh, Leo, BBBH, and Kirk... "

Would you be thinking, I'm in for a miserable season? I would.

Yes, but the whole point is that it's not next year. It's 3 or 4 years' time, and so we have 3 or 4 years to prepare, not one.
Because they will be nearing the end of their career and their individual influence begins to wane, we will be giving other players, both inside and outside the 2006 GF 16, the opportunity to step up and play the roles that these players did in 2006. And relying on them to take that opportunity.

If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

[hammo]

Originally posted by SimonH


If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

God bless Saddo

[AnnieH]

Originally posted by SimonH
snip ... If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

You're not taking into account the "variables", i.e. injury, poaching, suspensions, retirements, dummy spits, etc. etc. etc.

Jeez ... it's only trade week 2006 and I think we've pretty much already "what if'd" Sydney for season 2007 to death!!

The "what if" factor when trying to look even two years ahead is of astronomical proportions, let alone trying to look three or even four years into the future. You just can't do it.

But that's just footy. That's the way it is.
Let's just look forward to a happy and healthy 2007 for all.
Inshulla.

[Industrial Fan]

Originally posted by SimonH
If someone had said to you at the end of the 2001 season that we were about to trade away Greg Stafford and Ryan Fitzgerald, and by 2006 we would no longer have Paul Kelly, Wayne Schwass, Andrew Dunkley, Brad Seymour, Andrew Schauble, Jason Ball, Stewart Maxfield, Daryn Cresswell, Matthew Nicks or Jason Saddington lining up for us (and that we'd lose Paul Williams during 2006 to boot), you could easily have responded, 'We'll be rooned! Swans 2006: bottom by a mile!' But a few new blokes have had something to say about that.

Thats actually a pretty good illustration.

I think its probably not a bad thing if Roos is thinking of heading off after a few more years - a new coach and new ideology can refresh a club and in some ways counteract 'bottoming out'. Having said that it would be hard to top or even equal Roos.

2010 looks ok for mine.

[woo]

so basically signing spida is as dumb as it sounds huh......

[Guzzitza]

Originally posted by SimonH


Yes, but the whole point is that it's not next year. It's 3 or 4 years' time, and so we have 3 or 4 years to prepare, not one.
Because they will be nearing the end of their career and their individual influence begins to wane, we will be giving other players, both inside and outside the 2006 GF 16, the opportunity to step up and play the roles that these players did in 2006. And relying on them to take that opportunity.

I find it difficult to see how you intend to do this , somehow prepare for the next 3 or 4 years time yet keep these key players on at the same time. The point is, that you will keep someone on such as BBBH as long as possible, similar to Micky O, he'll be out there every game even if his knees are disintegrating. When these players leave, they tend not to filter out by swapping very week with a younger player. They leave like Williams did - mid season due to injury or end of a season due to other reasons. Generally they play the full season all games, because these impact players are exactly that, you want them out there for as long and as much as possible. Little Rookie BBBH Wannabe doesnt get a real run until the real BBBH steps down. Thats why the big voids are created, and thats why there a windows of opportunity. Mal began cementing a permanent spot in the team only once Williams was out. Mal will not have the same impact that williams had for some time, though he has the potential. When you have several players of around the same age, who will more than likely drop out at the same time (including our coach apaprently) then you suddenly have big holes in your team - filled by vastly inexperienced repalcements. To say that you can prepare is just not realistic, you can play your up and coming palyers in the rookies as much as you like, but in the end its not real experience. And when its the option between picking a semi fit Barry Hall and say a heath Grundy, the coachs will pick Hall every time.
So in 3 or 4 years time, you'll have key players leaving, and their replacements may be talented but will be far from filling their shoes. Players like Grundy, sit and wait, they play maybe 3 or 4 games a year, until say BBBH/Micky O or Leo suddenly drop out - then they are thrust in there.
Thats why there is the window, the coach will keep the best players he has out on the field for as long as possible, even though it can mean hampering younger players development - because you need to make the most of those great players you have, while you still have them.

[Go Swannies]

Originally posted by woo
so basically signing spida is as dumb as it sounds huh......

Well, the Swans were predicted to not even finish in the 8 in 2006 without Jason Ball.

A fit Spida will really strengthen the team - watching Cox working the ground reminds me how much we lost with Ball.

Next year the attention will all be on the Premiers. If players improve and our new coach(es) work out, we could be well in the running for two flags in three years. I think the loss this year - and the realisation how close they came to blowing it all with some loses during the year - will act as impetus. And next year, the team will have neither the Premiership hangover, nor the summer celebrations to cope with.

I bet we still start slowly though.

[woo]

on another note, I know a lot of bandwagoners are used to winning, and it KILLS me to say this but all those years of losing etc so made me enjoy the grand final win so much more, its like we fought the hard war and won...

every teams goes through it, its silly to not expect a fall in wins circa 4 years time...so what...we're still all going to all the games supporting the team and trying to help them across the line...and those who wont be at those games should think about wehy they really support the swans

whats the diff?

[Guzzitza]

Originally posted by woo
on another note, I know a lot of bandwagoners are used to winning, and it KILLS me to say this but all those years of losing etc so made me enjoy the grand final win so much more, its like we fought the hard war and won...

every teams goes through it, its silly to not expect a fall in wins circa 4 years time...so what...we're still all going to all the games supporting the team and trying to help them across the line...and those who wont be at those games should think about wehy they really support the swans

whats the diff?

I've stated numerous times i actually look forward to losing the old crowd and blooding some youngsters who sadly cant get a go right now. Its all part of it.
The theory of the "window", in my opinion, is a sound one. I think Roos agrees with it too, hes suggested once the old crowd have left he will too, it will be the end of the current era - but right now we need to make the most of it.