If we assume all teams in the eight are of comparable ability then each of the top four sides have a 3 in 16 chance of winning the flag, while each of the bottom four teams have only a 1 in 16 chance. (ie. Swans have only a third of the chance that the top four teams have)
After the first week, both winning qualifying final winners have a 1 in 4 chance while the other four remaining teams each have a 1 in 8 chance. (ie. If still alive the Swans have half the chance of the top two)
Once at the preliminary finals stage all teams become a 1 in 4 chance, and of course the grand final teams have a 1 in 2 chance. (If still alive at the preliminary final stage, the Swans have an equal chance with all other competitors)
Piece of cake!
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