The mathematical odds for a flag

[The Big Cat]

If we assume all teams in the eight are of comparable ability then each of the top four sides have a 3 in 16 chance of winning the flag, while each of the bottom four teams have only a 1 in 16 chance. (ie. Swans have only a third of the chance that the top four teams have)

After the first week, both winning qualifying final winners have a 1 in 4 chance while the other four remaining teams each have a 1 in 8 chance. (ie. If still alive the Swans have half the chance of the top two)

Once at the preliminary finals stage all teams become a 1 in 4 chance, and of course the grand final teams have a 1 in 2 chance. (If still alive at the preliminary final stage, the Swans have an equal chance with all other competitors)

Piece of cake!

[originalswan]

Can you please pass this advice onto the bookmakers who constantly have the Swans at ridiculous odds - Or are there alot of rich Swans supporters out there?

[j s]

Can you please pass this advice onto the bookmakers who constantly have the Swans at ridiculous odds - Or are there alot of rich Swans supporters out there?

Obviously the bookies don't agree with Big Cat's initial assumption

assume all teams in the eight are of comparable ability

[barry]

We have 4 away finals to go. Theoritically you could call them 50/50 games but because we are travelling, and we are playing teams above us. Its more like 40/60 per game.

4/10 * 4/10 * 4/10 *4/10 = 2.5 % chance of being premier.

or 1 in 40 chance.

Tricky!

[Zlatorog]

Yeah, as you said it, it's a mathematical possibility only.

[The Big Cat]

We have 4 away finals to go. Theoritically you could call them 50/50 games but because we are travelling, and we are playing teams above us. Its more like 40/60 per game.

4/10 * 4/10 * 4/10 *4/10 = 2.5 % chance of being premier.

or 1 in 40 chance.

Tricky!

Plus given the usual bias of umpires especially at away venues our chances are probably 3/10*3/10*3/10*3/10 = .81 % chance of the flag

or a 1 in 123 chance. Why have I bought tickets?

[katie-scarlett]

so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..

[Bas]

so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..

No, can't find the channel it's on.

[NMWBloods]

so... does anyone here watch Numb3rs..

I'm sure there would be chalkboards full of equations to explain our chances of making the GF!

[reigning premier]

As soon as you throw the term "mathematical" into a sentence relating to premierships or finals, it's all over

[katie-scarlett]

As soon as you throw the term "mathematical" into a sentence relating to premierships or finals, it's all over

for who? the team involved?

can someone start a thread involving the kitties & a mathematical equation please? & perhaps the eagles. & every other team in the top 8.

[sharp9]

The odds for Geelong are not that much better than for the Swans. If they lose this week they land in EXACTLY the same position as us (except they have a theoretical home advantage before playing away to Port or Eagles in a PF).

To put it another way a top four team has to beat THREE top four teams.
A top 8 team has to beat the 6th placed side and THEN beat three top four sides. It really is only one game different...if you're good enough it will not make much difference. Usually, of course the 5-8 teams are no good and get found out (WB, Collingwood, Kangas last year) don't confuse that with the "pathway being too difficult."

Or to put it another way, if we beat Collingwood this week we are effectively in the top four (ie: we have to beat three top four sides in a row to win the flag).