The Value of a Draft Pick

[Bloody Hell]

Was looking at this article
No hard feelings for Ball - AFL.com.au regarding Luke Ball.

Luke Ball was a Number 2 draft pick who made it. He was Captain of his club, well respected in the league, seems to have no social problems or downside. After 8 years of development - making the potenial seen in him as a No. 2 pick into reality his value drops to Pick 30 (some might say inflated due to Collingwoods shananegans).

Luke Ball is 25 years old and has probably 5-7 years of good football in front of him. Can anyone explain this?

Got me thinking about the recent Jolly excapade.

We took Jolly as a relatively unproven entity at 16 sold him at a bargin for 14 after proving his worth - Under his real value. So with 14 we picked up Jetta. If we had pick 8 would we have still picked Jetta? Is Jetta worth Jolly?

To me it seems that the proven player should be much, much more valuable - but the market indicates the opposite.

[satchmopugdog]

You are thinking far too deeply about it...




I went for the ROK option...so glad to see it back.

[Lucky Knickers]

I'm with Satchmo - good to see the ROK option resurrected.

[Bloody Hell]

A man has no ears for that to which experience has given him no access.

I like this one - had to read it 10 times before it made any sense. It's from Nietzsche...there's a guy who thinks too much!

[Primmy]

I ran with the ROK. I used to watch him during ressie matches. Used to call him the blond brick with legs. I didn't particularly rate him as a player but was impressed by the fact that his concentration never wavered. No matter where the ball was, he knew exactly where it was. None of this walking back and forth examining the ground for worm holes. He would have his head up and he watched every moment of where and when. Rated him then, rate him now. I had a great deal of satisfaction when he got his first seniors gig. "Toldyers" and all that.

[BRISWAN]

Bloody Hell,

Totally agree with what you are saying.

Ball at #30 seems a complete bargain.

High draft picks punted on up and comers is always a gamble just look at
Dan O'Keefe for example.

A guy of Ball's class with 5-7seasons in him would be the tonic to build a team around.

The only problem for the Saints was that they were lucky enough to have 4+ quality mids that filled a sim role.

It annoys me that the Pies have staged a double coup this year (with Jolly)
Unfortunately, I think this will come back to bite us all hard.

I still don't understand how Jolly is released for pick #14 - it's a strange game sometimes!!!!!

[stellation]

Seeing St Kilda get nothing for Ball has made me feel a lot better about getting #14 for Jolly.

[Jewels]

Seeing St Kilda get nothing for Ball has made me feel a lot better about getting #14 for Jolly.

I'm with you there.

[caj23]

Had we not wished to get other trades over the line, I'm pretty confident we would have held fast and squeezed more out of the Pies for DJ.

In hindsight though it worked out fine for us as we landed McGlynn and Kennedy cheaply and got 2 solid ruck replacements for DJ

[UglyDuckling]

The AFL has a yoof obsession. if you are 18 you have unlimited potential and are worth a high draft pick but if your 25 people know what you can do and you become undervalued. Thats one of the reasons the swans have been successful because we have invested in the trade period with players who have proven they can play.

[BeeEmmAre]

I took the ROK option because none of the others made any sense to me

[Bas]

I took the no ears option. You can't wear glasses either.

Collingwood gave up pick 14 for Jolly and pick 30 for Ball. Can these two get them a premiership? only time will tell. We had Plugger and Roos and still couldn't snare one.

I think you pick what you team needs most. It's all relative plus alot of luck with injuries.