Match Day Thread, Round 15 - Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans

[dejavoodoo44]

I assume plugger, what ampersand and others are suggesting is Tippett to play No 1 ruck, with Nankervis playing Tippett's role up forward.

For my take on this: I am a Pyke fan and I do think that he should be an important part of any premiership charge, but he does seem to be playing with some sort of chronic injury that is restricting his jump and slowing his pace. This means that he probably either needs a couple of weeks rest, or a quick cut and scrape type operation. When the best time to do this is debatable, but possibly the sooner the better.
And I probably wouldn't play both Tippett and Nankervis, but instead I'd go for Tippo as the main ruckman, with Sam Reid adding further to his swingman credibility, by playing Tippett's current back up role.

[wolftone57]

Wolfy.

Towers had a chance to win back some brownie points when Goodes gifted him a goal opportunity but he shanked it under no pressure. Towers seems to fumble almost every opportunity for a possession.

not saying he was good but I'd hate to be a forward in our team as we rarely hit a player up. towers was not good in fact his disposal stank.

[wolftone57]

Pleased with Reid's stability and disposal down back. Didn't really think he would make a backman but I may be wrong.

Nankervis and Heeney in for Pyke (looks like its time) ,and Towers. Possibly BJ for Robinson.

i didn't understand the Robbo selection. He pulled out of the Twos with a strain so hadn't played last week. Hwe would normally have had to play at least one reserves before being selected. I was worried about his endurance after not playing last week.

[Ampersand]

What it clearly shows that, with the exception of Freo and to some extent West Coast, is that there appears to be very little correlation between overall performance (i.e. ladder performance) and centre clearance stats - I'm sure NeilFWS could do some proper statistical analysis of it If he had time. Of course it doesn't include total clearances around the ground, which would be useful to have, and may tell a different story.

As for your cross against Pyke for hitouts to advantage - what is interesting is out of the top 4 teams, the best 2 teams in the league for it (freo and Wet Coke) and the two worst (Sydney and Hawks) currently make up the top 4. Make of that what you will.

I think you make an interesting point but if we're going to compare fairly I think we should take into account Ceglar's contribution around the ground:

Mike Pyke and Jonathon Ceglar AFL Stats Comparison

His numbers are nearly universally better. He's averaging +4 disposals, nearly +2 marks and has kicked 5.5 in comparison with Pyke's 1.4.

That's my point: if Pyke's ruck work was decent we could possibly ignore his failings elsewhere (and vice versa). The point is that he is failing badly in both realms.

Not to mention that Hawthorn's game style isn't as reliant on clearances as ours. They have the disposal efficiency and defensive talent to rebound the ball out of their defensive 50 into attack with relative ease. Unlike Hawthorn we're a team that relies on forcing stoppages and our conversion rate for inside 50s is so woeful we need first use of the ball from the centre with more regularity.

[Ludwig]

Pyke hasn't been right since he injured his knee at the end of 2013. There's a big risk in playing Nank, because there are all sorts of good reasons why he will be swamped by more experienced ruckmen, but I'd be willing to fast track his progress for the betterment of the team longer term. I still prefer playing Tippett as the number 1 ruckman with Reid as the backup. Playing in the ruck assures that Tippett gets involved in the game instead of just being a statue in the forward line, which sometimes happens. There's no risk playing Pyke; you know the outcome will be bad. At least we have a chance with these other options.

Other notes on the game:

Reid played well in defence and his kicking was solid.

Lloyd continues to improve. He's starting to put up bigger numbers and his ability to hit targets is most welcome in a team that often doesn't.

It was a big opportunity for Towers to make his mark with Rohan out with injury. But he sadly missed his chance. I would be willing to overlook some of his 'hard ball' weaknesses if he could use his pace, marking ability and goal kicking to compensate, but none of that was evident. We have others in our reserve side than can do better.

Playing slow deliberate footy doesn't win games and doesn't suit us. For better or worse, we need to play quick corridor footy, and if our skills aren't good enough to pull it off, so be it. Kicking the ball to contests around the boundary isn't going to cut it.

[AnnieH]

Won that by the skin of our teeth.
They ALL want to play a whole lot better if they want to beat the poos and wees next week.

[Triple B]

i didn't understand the Robbo selection. He pulled out of the Twos with a strain so hadn't played last week. Hwe would normally have had to play at least one reserves before being selected. I was worried about his endurance after not playing last week.

Robinson played the previous week in the two's...

[mcs]

It was a big opportunity for Towers to make his mark with Rohan out with injury. But he sadly missed his chance. I would be willing to overlook some of his 'hard ball' weaknesses if he could use his pace, marking ability and goal kicking to compensate, but none of that was evident. We have others in our reserve side than can do better.

.

Towers second efforts disappoint me - so often he is found wanting in this area at AFL level - which suprises me sometimes, as he has shown on occasions an ablity to make the 2nd/3rd efforts needed at NEAFL level. He just hasn't looked like translating what he has done at NEAFL level to the AFL level, which is a real shame.

[mcs]

I think you make an interesting point but if we're going to compare fairly I think we should take into account Ceglar's contribution around the ground:

Mike Pyke and Jonathon Ceglar AFL Stats Comparison

His numbers are nearly universally better. He's averaging +4 disposals, nearly +2 marks and has kicked 5.5 in comparison with Pyke's 1.4.

That's my point: if Pyke's ruck work was decent we could possibly ignore his failings elsewhere (and vice versa). The point is that he is failing badly in both realms.

Not to mention that Hawthorn's game style isn't as reliant on clearances as ours. They have the disposal efficiency and defensive talent to rebound the ball out of their defensive 50 into attack with relative ease. Unlike Hawthorn we're a team that relies on forcing stoppages and our conversion rate for inside 50s is so woeful we need first use of the ball from the centre with more regularity.

I don't think anyone is arguing that there is an issue around the ground with Pyke. I actually think the most important stat of the lot that is hurting us the most with Pyke is the 2.2 frees against a game. Despite many of those being befuddling to put it nicely, he is giving away a lot of ruck (and in particular centre bounce) infringements that aren't helping, and he seems to be struggling to correct the issue leading to it.

I'm just not convinced that Nankervis is going to be anything of an improvement overall to Pyke around the ground - and I think is highly likely to be worse in the ruck contest (not that it necessarily matters so much, as suggested by the stats).

Maybe Ludwig has the right idea with Reid as backup, but then that hurts team balance, given Reid's increasingly important role around the ground (he was very good again last night I thought).

As for Ceglar - it is of no consequence, but when looking at the stats, it is interesting that they dropped him for McEvoy - given McEvoy's stats on average around the ground being far worse than those of Ceglar.

[wolftone57]

I agree with this.

Pyke is clearly not 100%, but we are stuck in a really bad place. If we somehow get through the next month and be in a position to rest players over the last 3 rounds (i.e. top 4 all but sewn up), surely Pyke will be the first to get time off.

I can't see how we could carry both Tippett and Nankervis in the same side - just on the sheer basis of how slow they are around the ground. I like Nankervis and think he can make it as an old style ff/second ruckman, but gee its asking a lot of someone with 1 game experience in the AFL to come in at this stage, against teams like the Hawks and West Coast.

I don't think Tip is slow around the ground. In fact he is far more agile than Pykie. I would replace Pykie with Naismith when he is fit to give him some game time. He is probably the pick of the tap ruckmen.

[mcs]

I don't think Tip is slow around the ground. In fact he is far more agile than Pykie. I would replace Pykie with Naismith when he is fit to give him some game time. He is probably the pick of the tap ruckmen.

That is what I hope will happen in 2016, assuming Naismith has a good pre-season and can get over current injury problems. Maybe Naismith might be fit enough, after a few games in ressies, to get a game or two before finals in those last few weeks (In particular if we can do well over the next 5 weeks or so).

[bloodspirit]

For my take on this: I am a Pyke fan and I do think that he should be an important part of any premiership charge, but he does seem to be playing with some sort of chronic injury that is restricting his jump and slowing his pace. This means that he probably either needs a couple of weeks rest, or a quick cut and scrape type operation. When the best time to do this is debatable, but possibly the sooner the better.
And I probably wouldn't play both Tippett and Nankervis, but instead I'd go for Tippo as the main ruckman, with Sam Reid adding further to his swingman credibility, by playing Tippett's current back up role.

I agree with this. If Pyke has to go out I reckon we are better off not bringing in Nank to replace him, especially not against the Hawks. Nank is not ready for AFL and is, in my opinion, currently about our 5th best ruck (including Tippo). The only reason he is in the conversation is everyone else is out injured or playing injured. Nank doesn't yet have the tank and, for all his good qualities (good aggression/physicality and seemingly a nice kick too!), he is not tall by ruck standards and is especially slow. Maybe he'll overcome his shortcomings - I hope he does - but not before he builds his tank. Naismith would have been the go to man if he weren't injured and it would be excellent to be getting some games into him but unfortunately he is injured and there's not much we can do about that.

The question is whether we are better off with Pyke or with Tippo doing most of the rucking and some other player altogether. Into that equation I guess you have to decide how to weight the rest of the season and developing players for future seasons etc. I think we are still in contention for the flag this year and have to give substantial weight to this season. I think overall we are managing our list and have managed our list's transition to the future very well and are much better placed than Hawthorn when you look ahead (even though they are looking better for this season - they have peaked already - albeit they may not have fallen away yet.)