There is little doubt in my mind that Tippett will be selected for the match against North Melbourne this weekend, that being the case all that remains is to decide what changes to a winning side would best accommodate that change.

Like for like seems to be the obvious choice and that means a choice between Naismith and Nankervis.

As a critic of the pace of Nankervis and a fan of the ruck work and marking of Naismith it may seem odd that I am making a case for the former.

1. The match is being played in winter in Tasmania. Nankervis is a native Tasmanian and accustomed to the conditions. As I understand it Naismith hails from the Grafton area hardly similar to the conditions one might experience in Hobart on an August afternoon. This may seem spurious at first glance but if you've ever been to Hobart in winter you'll know it is not friendly. Having the right mental outlook from the start will be critical, North will be fuming at their loss to Hawthorn and eager to make up for the slow start last week.

2. The match will be a test of endurance as much as skill. Nankervis plays well in wet, windy weather. Naismith is less comfortable in these conditions and his greatest advantage which is his height and ruck work will be undervalued. That said the forecast is for cloudy but dry weather (10% chance of rain). Maybe this is 50-50.

3. Physicality comes down in favour of Nankervis. We have seen him crash packs and I like the way he goes about his work.

4. Skills come down about even. Naismith has better skills around the ground, moves better and marks well. Nankervis kicks well and is a good pack mark but less effective as a pure ruckman.