3 of the next four: Richmond (A), Essendon (H), Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). If we're to be some kind of contender, we really have to win at least three. If we don't, we're just shaping the eight and not making it.Originally Posted by Mug Punter
As for the losses to rue, I would add Collingwood to that list. One point. Had we won by one point instead, we'd be 11th and only one game outside the eight.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
Carlton knocking over the Giants shows that this season is IMO the most open in memory . We hold our destiny in our hands simply need to keep winning and the finals are almost a new season. Anything is possible.
Carlton beating the giants was my second favourite game all season. And my favourite was swans beating dogs. Both happened in this round of footy. What a ripper of a round.
Go Swans. It's a slim chance for finals but if any team can challenge I think it's the swans.
I just played around with the ladder predictor on the AFL website and it's quite possible we could be in the top 8 if we win our next three. Percentage is the key.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
Yes, I quite enjoyed the Giants getting done. Especially the fact that they lost by a point and Toby Greene managed to both, kick 0-5 and miss a few crucial passes. Certainly seemed to wipe the smirk off his face.
Giants are no shoe in. There forward line is pretty disfunctional.
If we can only have 3 more loses, there are three gimme losses in the draw ahead. Must beat the Tigers...and all four of those you mention.
Adelaide at home
GWS at home
Geelong at home
There are a lot of lose-able games in there.
The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.
I think 12 wins will definitely get in there. We beat the Tigers and then we are in a position to week after to jump ahead of Essendon if best them and they are sixth right now.
Closest comp I can remember for a long time
Top to 17th - five games.
1993 was similar. If we ignore the bottom three sides (we were one of them - shh!) the top 12 sides (in a 15-side competition where all sides played 20 games) were separated by 3 1/2 games after 22 rounds.
The bottom 3 sides were Brisbane Bears, Richmond, Sydney (in alphabetical order).Code:ESSENDON 13 1 6 119.1 54 CARLTON 13 1 6 117.6 54 NORTH MELBOURNE 13 - 7 120.8 52 HAWTHORN 13 - 7 116.6 52 ADELAIDE 12 - 8 117.8 48 WEST COAST 12 - 8 115.8 48 Geelong 12 - 8 111.6 48 Collingwood 11 - 9 101.3 44 Footscray 11 - 9 99.0 44 Melbourne 10 - 10 112.2 40 Fitzroy 10 - 10 99.5 40 St Kilda 10 - 10 94.2 40
Geelong were the side with the best form heading into the 1993 finals (they won their last 5 games by an average of 47.2 points including big floggings of the top two sides Hawthorn and North Melbourne) but they missed the final six by percentage. Had they beaten the Eagles by more in the final round at the WACA they would have made it. This was one of the reasons why the AFL introduced the first final 8 system the following year.
"Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final
Next four are all 8 point games against contenders for berths in the eight. Absolutely must win them all to not only advance us to parity but put dents in their win columns.
It's in our hands, we just need to avoid bad luck like losing Lloyd at the start of the Hawks game etc.
Problem is of course we just have no margin for error which is why the Hawks defeat is so annoying.
They are all must win for the next few games so needless to say if we don't beat the Tigers we're pretty much done. I personally feel quite confident about this game
Super post Thunder Shaker! What a season that must have been - before I was paying attention. You can see the tightness of that comp by looking at the percentage too. Only 5 points difference in percentage covering all the finalists.
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