2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Legs Akimbo]

Hi All,

I am a new poster... but have read all the talk re trading.

For what its worth, our humble CEO needs to take a course in negotiating. He is constantly allowing the narrative surrounding Papely, Jones, and dare I say it Daniher, be skewed against the Swans by letting the likes of Essendon and Carlton dictate terms. He isn't forthright enough to say that Paps as 4 years to run on his contract in his discussions with Carlton, and thus the paradigm surrounding his move is completely different to that of Daniher (who has a further one). I feel he has backed himself into a corner that he will not be able to get out of, and may want to save face in doing a deal for Daniher almost at any cost. I understand the discussion about Daniher's potential, but if you look at the stance that Dodoro has adopted for Essendon, we should be doing the same and more with Papley. As much as I think that Dodoro is harsh in his approach, I wish that he was our chief negotiator, and not Harley.

Having said all this, the way you approach a negotiation is by setting a high value from which you can only come down. Harley appears to have set too low a bar, and in all my experience he will not be able to trade up.

Welcome aboard. Actually, the secret to negotiating is your best alternative to a negotiated agreement (batna). That sets your floor price and willingness to trade.

I wonder if our brains trust have a clear one for papley and Daniher?

[Aprilbr]

The fact that Joe's management requested a contract extension and no offer has come from Essendon in that regard is a clear indication that Essendon do not have confidence that Joe can get his body right. At least they are wary enough not to commit anything until he can prove himself. One would think that Essendon know Joe's situation best. As they say: Money Talks. And money is silent at Essendon.

We would be remiss not to take the cues from Essendon's actions. It would be arrogant of us to think that we know more about Joe's ability to play than Essendon do. They need Joe more than we do. Their forward line looks feeble without him. We have plenty of ammo, both experienced and young talent.

Making a big commitment to JD, in both what we give for him to Essendon, as well as a salary package, is a big risk for us and one that needn't be made this year. It could turn out well, but if it doesn't, it could derail all the good work done by the list management team to get us to this stage where we can make a relaunch toward another premiership.

In 2016 we were going gangbusters through round 11. Tippett was on tap to be an AA ruckman. He was injured the next game. We lost the GF. He was never able to get his body right again, His ridiculous contract with all its trigger clauses and extensions continued to haunt the Swans even into 2019, where he had to be rookie listed. It's not the only reason, but that was the start of the current fall of the club down to 15th on the ladder this year.

We look to finally be recovering from the Tippett era. At his best, Tippo was worth his paycheck. But we have to learn some lessons from this episode. The oft used phrase about not putting all your eggs in one basket applies here. Caution is advised about putting too much hope in a savior to take the club forward. We don't need to do this. Especially this year.

While I agree with your logic there, Ludwig, it was reported that Essendon tried to negotiate with Daniher to extend his contract earlier this season but he suddenly backed out in the latter part of the season. This was when they started to be concerned that something else was afoot. A copy of the said report is attached for your interest. Taken from The Age last Sunday. If this report is true then we cannot definitively say that the Bombers were so worried about his body that they would not offer a new contract.

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[Ludwig]

The Ed Langdon deal to Melbourne looks to net out at a trade for a pick in the low 20s. I think Langdon's value is a bit higher than Jones', so this trade may push Jones' value into the mid 20s if comparisons are valid.


Dedoro was recently asked if a new contract was presented to JD's management and he said no.

[liz]

I wonder if our brains trust have a clear one for papley and Daniher?

From the outside (and maybe simplistically), the BATNAs for both look quite obvious. Don't trade Papley (he is still contracted as is for a while yet). Don't trade for Daniher (he doesn't fill an urgent list need).

Jones is a harder one because he could be lost for zilch.

[liz]

The Ed Langdon deal to Melbourne looks to net out at a trade for a pick in the low 20s. I think Langdon's value is a bit higher than Jones', so this trade may push Jones' value into the mid 20s if comparisons are valid.

The Langdon trade is essentially a four pick upgrade towards the start of this year's second round, plus next year's second round pick. (The future 4th is just mucking around at the margins.) That future second could be pick 19 or pick 36 given Melbourne's form fluctuations over the past two seasons. Impossible to predict. Though they've done nothing to address their forward line woes so suspect it will be closer to pick 19 than to pick 36. It's impossible to put a value on without taking a punt on where the Dees will finish next year.

[bloodspirit]

A good value trade by the Hawks. I'm sure Clarko will make him a star. Another reason that we have to be very shrewd in our trading just to be competitive. The Melbourne clubs have a big advantage in their access to the AFL player pool, while the northern clubs have to make the most of few opportunities, while not being hypnotized into entering bad value trades.

I reckon they should be viewed as completely separate from each other. If the club is set on getting Daniher in, a deal structured around pick 5 should be possible (with more or less going or coming, depending on who wants what more). There is no way pick 9 is "needed" for a trade for a player who has barely played in two seasons.

The decision on whether to trade Papley should be based around information the club has (ignoring the fluff in the media, though I don't think that the rubbish about his living arrangements being unsuitable helped Papley's credibility) - ie how sympathetic are they to his real reasons for wanting a move to Melbourne, and how easy/hard will it be for him to reintegrate into the club is he isn't traded. He is contracted, not just for next season but well beyond, so there is no pressure to trade him or lose him for nothing.

The above is based on

- while we have a valuable pick in the draft (pick 5 - and one I personally would rather the club used at the draft rather than spent on Daniher), the top end of this draft doesn't seem particularly strong. If we were having these conversations a year ago, my view might be different.
- we don't especially need to bring in young talent. Not that more young talent is a bad thing, but we already have a young list and have invested heavily in the draft in recent seasons. So using that pick on a valuable player who fills a list need would be a perfectly reasonable thing to do in my book. (The big problem/question here, is - as we have all identified - that Daniher doesn't seem to address the most obvious list needs we have.)

I agree with you both. Especially that Daniher and Papley don't have to be connected, that Daniher is not worth picks 5 and 9, and that it would be just fine if both deals "fail". Also with your point, Ludwig, that useful role players can be in cheap and the Hawks do a good job of it and it is generally easier for VFL clubs to do because of the much larger pool of players (conversely they have to compete with each other for those players but there's a much bigger market whereas we have to seriously consider any halfway decent player just because they are willing to come rather than being able to target those we most would want so easily).

[longmile]

I'd happily have both Lewis Taylor and Papley in the same team. There's definitely room for 2 quality small forwards and both can rotate through the midfield to add speed and xfactor. However it'd probably put ronke further on the outer.

[AnnieH]

I don't pay much attention to Essenscum and their players... and please pardon my disinterest, BUT... when they say Kurt Daniher has played 11 games in two years, when were those 11 games? At the end of this season? At the beginning of the season? Is he still injured, or has he played recently?

[neilfws]

I don't pay much attention to Essenscum and their players... and please pardon my disinterest, BUT... when they say Kurt Daniher has played 11 games in two years, when were those 11 games? At the end of this season? At the beginning of the season? Is he still injured, or has he played recently?

He played rounds 1-7 in 2018 and rounds 5-7, 9 in 2019. Averaged a little over a goal a game for those games.

Question is, can he get back to anything like 2017 which really was very good.

Joe Daniher Stats

[AnnieH]

He played rounds 1-7 in 2018 and rounds 5-7, 9 in 2019. Averaged a little over a goal a game for those games.

Question is, can he get back to anything like 2017 which really was very good.

Joe Daniher Stats

Thanks mate.
Still don't want him. He's got medical issues.

[dejavoodoo44]

The fact that Joe's management requested a contract extension and no offer has come from Essendon in that regard is a clear indication that Essendon do not have confidence that Joe can get his body right. At least they are wary enough not to commit anything until he can prove himself. One would think that Essendon know Joe's situation best. As they say: Money Talks. And money is silent at Essendon.

We would be remiss not to take the cues from Essendon's actions. It would be arrogant of us to think that we know more about Joe's ability to play than Essendon do. They need Joe more than we do. Their forward line looks feeble without him. We have plenty of ammo, both experienced and young talent.

Making a big commitment to JD, in both what we give for him to Essendon, as well as a salary package, is a big risk for us and one that needn't be made this year. It could turn out well, but if it doesn't, it could derail all the good work done by the list management team to get us to this stage where we can make a relaunch toward another premiership.

In 2016 we were going gangbusters through round 11. Tippett was on tap to be an AA ruckman. He was injured the next game. We lost the GF. He was never able to get his body right again, His ridiculous contract with all its trigger clauses and extensions continued to haunt the Swans even into 2019, where he had to be rookie listed. It's not the only reason, but that was the start of the current fall of the club down to 15th on the ladder this year.

We look to finally be recovering from the Tippett era. At his best, Tippo was worth his paycheck. But we have to learn some lessons from this episode. The oft used phrase about not putting all your eggs in one basket applies here. Caution is advised about putting too much hope in a savior to take the club forward. We don't need to do this. Especially this year.

To me, Essendon's attitude is a bit like, 'Do you want this stuff that I found at the back of the fridge? I'm only going to throw it out if you don't have it. Oh you do. Well, since it originally cost me twenty bucks and it's now got all that healthy mould; you can have it for thirty'.

[Jimitron5000]

To me, Essendon's attitude is a bit like, 'Do you want this stuff that I found at the back of the fridge? I'm only going to throw it out if you don't have it. Oh you do. Well, since it originally cost me twenty bucks and it's now got all that healthy mould; you can have it for thirty'.

I agree. Dodoro is like a used car salesman.