While I haven't watched Robinson for ages, he always struck me as someone who has a highly inflated opinion of himself. So I suspect that he's made plenty of similar statements in the past, but he rarely gets called out, because very few people could be bothered to check his record.
I like how the Swans had a managed handover from Roos to Horse. If something similar was going to happen, why not 2 years ago to Stewie Dew? I can't see anyone at the Swans who's got the required level of experience.
Maybe we can have Rhyce Shaw and North get Horse?
Or will Shaw be Roos and Horse the Terry Wallace in this situation?
It's certainly making me nervous the possibility.
I'd be more worried if Horse took John Blakey with him which might trigger young Nick to move. (Don't think Nick has signed a contract extension al la Heeney and Mills.) We could also lose our handle on the two Longmire colts coming through the academy as well.
Those who have the greatest power to hurt us are those we love.
'Robbo' is a complete idiot.....I am not worried at all.
What would entice Longmire to move to North Melbourne? It has to be more than the prospect of coaching a team he played for two decades ago. He's spent far more of his adult life involved with the Swans than he did the Roos. I think the romantic notion of coaching the club you played for is mostly in the minds of the media (as is the FS opportunity, I suspect).
So money? I'd be surprised if the Roos were in a position to throw more money at him than the Swans could afford.
A feeling that his support at the Swans is waning? Only a month or so ago Pridham or Harley (can't recall which) said they are very committed to Longmire continuing as coach and were looking to extend his contract.
A feeling that the Roos' list is better than the Swans? None of us is best placed to objectively answer that. We're all biased. But I'd be surprised if many would assess the Roos' list to be better. Certainly not substantially better. Would you rather coach Ben Brown or Buddy Franklin? (Not knocking Brown. He's a solid forward. But he ain't no Buddy Franklin.) The Roos' younger brigade versus ours? Regardless of which list anyone rates as better, Longmire has a lot more emotionally invested in ours.
The need for a change? Impossible to tell from the outside, but Longmire seems invigorated by the coaching of essentially a new group of players.
A family desire to move? He's not from Melbourne, he's from country NSW. So I doubt he or his wife have extended family in Melbourne. It would also be an odd time to voluntarily relocate given where his children are in their schooling.
A desire to spend time in the football heartland? Again, impossible to guess. But if you did want to be involved in one of the "big" Melbourne clubs, why would you go to the Roos? Why not wait until the Blues job becomes available (as it surely will soon). Essendon's another club that might decide in the not too distant future that they've not got the right man.
It seems odd that any mainstream journalist (ie one employed by a mainstream media organisation) would make such a definitive prediction unless he had some mail he thought was reliable. So I'm not going to say it won't happen. But it's hard to build a case for why it seems likely.
Robbo sticking his neck out like that has unnerved me. Unless he's being a provocateur. But he was the person who had the inside story on Scott leaving North, so it may be that (1) He knows North will make a massive play for Longmire (they've suggested they'll go after Longmire, Simpson and Clarko) (2) of those three, Robbo guesses Longmire would be the one most likely to entertain a change of scenery after 10 years with the Swans (and more as a coach under Roos).
Alternatively the whole "mutual" departure is a smokescreen and the Longmire deal is already done, and Robbo knows this. As no club ever tells the truth about this stuff, the noises coming from clubs could be quite the opposite to what's going to play out.
However Liz, I think your reasoning is sound.
Option C is that Longmire's people are using Robbo to get the best possible deal from the Swans.
Robbo is full of $#!^. The only people who will remember he said it are on here.
It will be interesting to see how Shaw goes for the rest of the season. He never struck me as being the sharpest tool in the shed.
I got the impression from his interaction with the younger players when he was NEAFL coach, and the way he allegedly challenged Longmire as line coach, that he's going to make an excellent coach. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. I really hope he goes well, and does a Roos on them!
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