I found myself pondering our run home and the chance of finals. To me it seems a long shot but not out of the question since we have turned our form around. Currently we stand on 5W/8L and 2 games plus percentage outside the 8. The key games to me seem to be the Essendon, Freo and Port games. They are our main rivals for a place in the 8 that can be dislodged. I think we need to get in front of at least two out of Freo, Port and Richmond (as well as the others between us) and so the results of these games (all away games) will be critical. Particularly if we can beat these three teams, 7/9 wins in the run home may well be good enough to play finals. If we can jag one of the games against Geelong or GWS then we can afford to drop another one somewhere else.

How excited should we be? Or, when do we start getting excited? If we win our next three is that too soon? If we win those three AND then beat Freo we can definitely start getting excited and we might even be in the 8 before a fairly tough run from there.

If we beat the Suns and Essendon, we may overtake Essendon that day and with a little luck in terms of other results reach 10th position.

Otherwise, for the competition in general, it looks like the current top 6 should play finals and the top 4 will most likely remain the same.