2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[dejavoodoo44]

Quality analysis

Wouldn't go that far.

[Markwebbos]

I'm not convinced about Preuss. Someone asked whether anyone has seen him play a good game and the answer from me is a no.

I wonder with Aliir potentially playing as a ruck / forward full-time, his ruck work will improve, allowing him to share more of the ruck load with Sinclair (or Naismith, not holding my breath!). This, could lead to an improved output from our on ballers, who should be getting better anyway, without having to find a new ruckman.

I think, outside of Sam N, AA has the potential to be our best ruckman and to offer the most outside of winning hitouts. And I don't think he has a spot in the backline with the move of McCartin down back. But I think he's not quite tall enough to be the main man. Happy to be proved wrong.

[Thunder Shaker]

And we might be in for a bit of a nervous wait on draft night. Though I think that depends on how Adelaide view their KPF situation. It should be okay, if they think they already have enough, with Walker, Fogarty, Himmelberg, and possibly Frampton and Lynch. If not, it's easy to imagine a scenario where the three gun KPFs go before our pick.

That is, if Adelaide decide they want a KPF, they first bid on Ugle-Hagan; because he's touted as the best player in the draft and to keep the Bulldogs honest. Assuming that the Bulldogs match, Adelaide could then take local lad, Thilthorpe. Since North are shopping around Brown and have culled Wood (deadwood?), they might be planning on taking a KPF at the draft; so they take McDonald. Which might leave many of us feeling disappointed.

Although that scenario, does rely on North making, what I perceive as the most rational decision. So, maybe we'll be okay?

Maybe Norf or the Crows have other needs they want to fill? I doubt they would be in any rush, though. Both clubs have a second draft pick before pick 10, so they may well be deciding to use their first pick on whom they consider to be the best available player and their second pick to fill a specific need. (I expect Norf will split pick 9, they need a fistful of picks to draft replacements for the 11 players they delisted.)

Sydney has the third live pick, so we only need to shortlist three players for consideration. For talls, that would be Thilthorpe, McDonald, and one other.

I have said before that Sydney may end up splitting pick 3 for two later first-round picks (eg: Geelong's provisional picks 15 and 16). This would maximise the chances of drafting both Campbell and Gulden. I hope we don't split pick 3 and instead trade for the additional picks we need. Last year, it was speculated that Melbourne would split their pick 3, but they ended up taking it to the draft and picking Luke Jackson.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I'm not convinced about Preuss. Someone asked whether anyone has seen him play a good game and the answer from me is a no.

I wonder with Aliir potentially playing as a ruck / forward full-time, his ruck work will improve, allowing him to share more of the ruck load with Sinclair (or Naismith, not holding my breath!). This, could lead to an improved output from our on ballers, who should be getting better anyway, without having to find a new ruckman.

He’s played about 18 games over the past 4 years, mainly due to being second fiddle behind an elite ruckman. There’s been glimpses but it’s very hard to tell how good or average he really is.


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[MattW]

Has anyone seen Preuss actually play a good game? I know I haven't.

I know he looks like a ruckman, but I haven't seen him play like an AFL standard ruck. And I'm not talking Nic Nat or Gawn level; just an ability to win some taps, make space for the mids, take the odd grab around the ground, and kick an occasional goal.

Agreed.

[Blood Fever]

Wouldn't go that far.

It's all relative I know but it made a lot of sense. Lot of strange stuff on here lately!

[Blood Fever]

I think, outside of Sam N, AA has the potential to be our best ruckman and to offer the most outside of winning hitouts. And I don't think he has a spot in the backline with the move of McCartin down back. But I think he's not quite tall enough to be the main man. Happy to be proved wrong.

When he is at the centre bounce, he wins the clearance more than some of our midfielders despite competing for the tap!

[giant]

I don't see the Vezpremi comparison at all. Vezpremi look like he struggled at the level pretty much straight away, whereas Stephens clearly has class (IMO), confidence and is improving game on game. With respect, I can't even conceive of a basis you'd make that comparison.

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

[giant]

Is there enough room on the SCG for Ben Brown to take his run up?

The plus side is that when he was taking a shot you'd feel like you were a part of the action wherever you were sitting!

[AB Swannie]

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

FWIW, Cal Twomey rated Serong at pick 8 and Stephens at pick 9. Chris Doerre (AKA Knightmare) had Stephens ranked higher than Serong in his power rankings (Stephens 8, Serong 11). Sam Flanders was the one seen as the one who slipped.

My point is that in hindsight it seems like Serong was a safe pick because he has come out and won the Rising Star but the people who had watched much more junior footy than you and me didn't have it the way you see it now.

Stephens is a jet. I'm happy to hitch my wagon to his stocks as I think he will play about 150-200 more games than Vezpremi. On another note, Rioli was never an option due to his draft tampering.

[bennyfabulous]

Everyone who thinks we need a gun ruckman to succeed should read that article......stuff it, I'll just quote the relevant section:

"Ruckmen in the modern game do not win you premierships. Ruckmen are the most overrated position in the game with the least influence on the outcome.

There is a litany of examples over the past decade of premiership-winning ruckmen being a small cog in the team’s overall success. Names like Ivan Soldo, Toby Nankervis, Scott Lycett, Nathan Vardy, Jordan Roughead and Ben McEvoy are all solid citizens but absolutely nothing more. They would all be in their premiership team’s bottom six.

There is no better example than Grundy himself in the 2019 preliminary final against GWS, which the Magpies lost. It was a game where Grundy dominated his position.

Grundy’s numbers in that game were extraordinary. He won 73 hit-outs and ten clearances. He had 25 disposals and the Magpies dominated the clearances 54 to 35.

If ruckmen were so influential, Collingwood should have won by ten goals. Alas, all the tap outs in the world couldn’t be converted into genuine match dominance."


We just need a strong midfield, which we are developing already and will strengthen at this years draft (along with, hopefully, a KPF through trading....just not Daniher or Brown! I'd rather Hogan, even with the risks involved).

A one off stats count, as an identifier of game influence is very misleading.
Grundy would have had similar numbers in massive wins as well and been best on ground.
Plugger would have kicked 10+ in losing games. Buddy has kicked bags in losing games. Do key forwards have no influence on matches and premierships?
Mitchell has had games of 40+ disposals in losses, i think one time he had 50 in a loss for Hawthorn. Do mids have no influence on games/premierships?

Stats are decieving.

Obviously one area of the ground doesn't win games/premierships. Generally the best TEAM does.
But i'm sure we can all agree we have had a decent midfield over the journey and it has always worked far better with a dominant/capable ruckman?

[Blood Fever]

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

Disagree entirely. I see a potential gun with speed, an elite tank and lovely disposal. And match awareness.