14th - 18th, for one simple reason: where's the elite talent? Buddy Franklin is 34, will never play a full season again. Rampe now on the wrong side of 30. And Parker is left to do it all himself in the middle with Kennedy getting on a bit. Who else is going to stand up?
Papley is an AA worthy small fwd, but if you are relying on a small fwd like that then it speaks volumes about the quality in the forward line. Lloyd is already at his peak in terms of numbers. Statistically speaking he is our best player by a mile, but kidding ourselves if we consider him elite. Mills? Unlikely, playing as a mid-sized defender, even if he is very good at it. Heeney who has never EVER shown any consistency. Why should we expect it now? His best is beyond elite - it's awesome. His worst is ordinary, and rears it's head too much.
Toilers like Hewett, Cunningham, Reid and Fox are tough and work hard but will never be elite. Young players like Ollie and Will have played more ordinary games than impressive ones, never a good sign.
So I ask where is the game-turning, match-winning, dominant-force talent going to come from? Dawson? Rowbottom? McCartin? What makes us so sure they won't just be rising stars like Heeney and Mills and Hewett who never go on to fulfill their potential?
Too many unknowns. It's never a good thing. Unless we have a miracle season where everything goes right, and the majority of the list improves on what they have shown so far, very unlikely, then we won't be going anywhere in 2021.
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