2022 List management, trading, drafting

[Ludwig]

I was going through Freo's team as a preview for this Saturday's game and noted the interesting sources of their list development. They have done very well extracting players from a variety of places, which is something we've been generally good at.

Picking out just one example is Freo taking Taberner in 2013 as a 20 yo and Shultz in 2018 as a 21 yo. Both were 4th round picks. Taberner didn't really get going until his 8th year in 2020. It's a long time to stay on a list as a depth player. Maybe Hayden McLean (who I mistakenly left out of my drafted players list) will turn out to be such a player.

Robbie Fox is one overager who has worked out for us. I suppose we can put Lloyd and Papley in that category, both rookie drafted as 19 yos.

There seem to be a lot of success stories of late by drafting overagers. Excellent value for money. I'm not sure this is the year for us to tap this market, having 3 top 40 draft picks. Mutaz El Nour was in the sights of many, but surprisingly didn't get taken in the mid-season draft. He would be someone of interest from the 2nd round forward.

On a separate matter, I compared the stats for Cam Zurhaar and Will Hayward. They are quite close statistically and if anything, Hayward would be ahead. Yet it's interesting that the perception of many on here would be that Zurhaar would be an upgrade on Hayward. I was one of those, but am now having a rethink. Here are the comparison stats for the current season:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...&fid1=S&fid2=S

[Maltopia]

On a separate matter, I compared the stats for Cam Zurhaar and Will Hayward. They are quite close statistically and if anything, Hayward would be ahead. Yet it's interesting that the perception of many on here would be that Zurhaar would be an upgrade on Hayward. I was one of those, but am now having a rethink. Here are the comparison stats for the current season:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...&fid1=S&fid2=S

But Hayward is getting those stats on a winning team where there ball is getting up forward more regularly than in North Melbourne's case, whereas Zurhaar is getting similar stats without the benefit of a midfield and defence like ours.

There is also some attraction I guess to Zurhaar being a number 11 pick and should have more potential in him I guess?

[Ludwig]

I'm certain we'll turn over more than 3 players this off season and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it was double that much. As a minimum I expect to see four depart (say Naismith, Kennedy, Taylor and Sinclair) and I'd wager there'll be more than that.

We've already used Naismith on HKK, so that would only leave 3 live picks. The 2 Irishmen are both in jeopardy of being cut. BOC would really have to put together a big final 2 months, and COR always seems to get injured when given a chance in the senior team. I would have Bell in my delistings, because I can't see how he gets a game in the future with several players in the VFL looking better prospects and having another draft year coming with fresh faces to choose from. But it would seem that the coaches value him more highly, so will probably keep his spot on the list. One thing that could hurt Bell is the recent success of Clarke, who is looking a better choice to be retained than Bell, based on AFL performances.

[Ludwig]

But Hayward is getting those stats on a winning team where there ball is getting up forward more regularly than in North Melbourne's case, whereas Zurhaar is getting similar stats without the benefit of a midfield and defence like ours.

There is also some attraction I guess to Zurhaar being a number 11 pick and should have more potential in him I guess?

Zurhaar was a number 11 pick in the rookie draft.

An argument can be made that Zurhaar has more opportunities to be targeting in a weak forward line. Surprisingly, Hayward has better stats in tackles and intercepts. I would have thought Zurhaar would be the better defensive player. Hayward's pressure acts are also better than Cam's.

It's hard to justify trading for a player to replace a player who is arguably better. Zurhaar has some spectacular moments which improves the perception we have of him as a player.

I think Liz suggested Tarrryn Thomas as someone to look at on North's list. He's had a terrible year and he's contracted until 2024. I would think North would want to keep him. But he looked a real star last year and someone who fits our game plan. I wonder if he's gettable.

[Nico]

I wouldn't take anyone from North. A Champion Data analysis of their list in the Herald Sun today only rate 5 players as above average. They have 16 players out of contract. There are a staggering number of players who have played none or few games. Maybe their recruiters who walked did the club a favour. Zurhaar is rated as average.

They rated the following as above average: Jed Anderson 28, Jack Ziebell 31, Luke McDonald 27, Todd Goldstein 34, Aaron Hall 31. Cunnington 31 was an N/A. I think their list is in a lot of strife. The new coach will be endeavoring to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

[Markwebbos]

I wouldn't take anyone from North. A Champion Data analysis of their list in the Herald Sun today only rate 5 players as above average. They have 16 players out of contract. There are a staggering number of players who have played none or few games. Maybe their recruiters who walked did the club a favour. Zurhaar is rated as average.

They rated the following as above average: Jed Anderson 28, Jack Ziebell 31, Luke McDonald 27, Todd Goldstein 34, Aaron Hall 31. Cunnington 31 was an N/A. I think their list is in a lot of strife. The new coach will be endeavoring to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

LDU
Tarryn Thomas
Jy Simpkin
Zurhaar
Horne-Francis

[i'm-uninformed2]

LDU
Tarryn Thomas
Jy Simpkin
Zurhaar
Horne-Francis

I’d take Larkey too. He kicked 40+ goals in the wooden spoon team last year.

As for their ‘ratings’, they’re in a crap team playing dysfunctional football. Of course they look bad. Players don’t perform in isolation of what’s happening around them.

[Aprilbr]

LDU
Tarryn Thomas
Jy Simpkin
Zurhaar
Horne-Francis

I agree. There is some young talent there. It reminds me of the final Fitzroy team in 1996. That team could only win one game in the Club's final season yet several of their team went on to have illustrious careers elsewhere and win premierships eg Chris Johnson, Martin Pike and Matthew Primus. At Fitzroy, they were in a poorly resourced and coached team but it all changed when they went to stronger teams. They were young and many of them developed after leaving. North would have at least six like this.

https://www.lions.com.au/news/700396...e-an-injustice

[Ruck'n'Roll]

We will almost certainly see the exit of several 30+ players, Sinkers for certain, the luckless Naismith likewise. Sadly JPK may also retire. I think Rampe's form is picking up, as has Sam Reids so I think we'll keep both.
So probably 3 spots open up.

Amongst the younger players Clarke may have saved his skin, but Taylor and O'Riordan's contracts end this year, and so too I suspect will their careers.
Which gives us 1 more senior and 1 more Rookie spot to fill.
Are we likely to bring in more than that? A cleanout would be a bit unusual for a team on a trajectory like ours.

Of the other out of contract, I have no idea on Ben Ronke or James Bell, and O'Connor and Gould are yet to be tried.

[Aprilbr]

We will almost certainly see the exit of several 30+ players, Sinkers for certain, the luckless Naismith likewise. Sadly JPK may also retire. I think Rampe's form is picking up, as has Sam Reids so I think we'll keep both.
So probably 3 spots open up.

Amongst the younger players Clarke may have saved his skin, but Taylor and O'Riordan's contracts end this year, and so too I suspect will their careers.
Which gives us 1 more senior and 1 more Rookie spot to fill.
Are we likely to bring in more than that? A cleanout would be a bit unusual for a team on a trajectory like ours.

Of the other out of contract, I have no idea on Ben Ronke or James Bell, and O'Connor and Gould are yet to be tried.

I think 8 to 10 players will depart the squad at season's end. The names you mention make sense to me. There will possibly be one or two rookies delisted as well. I think Gould will ask to go if he cannot break into the senior team before season's end. There is suddenly also a certain 35-year old key forward that might not be with us next season with recent developments!

McLean may ask to be traded for more opportunities elsewhere although I think he still has one year left on his contract. I think one of Wicks or Ronke could go to. Bell is 50/50.

[liz]

There will possibly be one or two rookies delisted as well.

Our rookies are:

Fox - currently in senior team but living on year-by-year contracts (I believe)
Taylor - close to certain to be cut
BOC - who knows but doesn't seem close to breaking out
Amartey, McLean, Wicks, Sheather - all with contracts for next season (and the first three having spent their allotted time on the rookie list, meaning they will need to be elevated)
Hall-Kahan - only just arrived and on an 18 month contract

[dejavoodoo44]

Our rookies are:

Fox - currently in senior team but living on year-by-year contracts (I believe)
Taylor - close to certain to be cut
BOC - who knows but doesn't seem close to breaking out
Amartey, McLean, Wicks, Sheather - all with contracts for next season (and the first three having spent their allotted time on the rookie list, meaning they will need to be elevated)
Hall-Kahan - only just arrived and on an 18 month contract

According to the AFL Record, Amartey is on the senior list. And McAndrew is also on the rookie list.

One thing I was wondering about the rookie list. If, say, McLean decided that he would get more opportunities at another club, would we be able to trade him? Or does a player have to be on the senior list, in order for a club to trade them?