I only have FM on my iPod. I'm definitely bringing something with AM next game!Originally Posted by MattW
I only have FM on my iPod. I'm definitely bringing something with AM next game!
I've moved all the stuff that started as the repetitive pile on to James (out of proportion to the actual match). This includes the comparisons with past players, also not relevant to this thread.
For those who want to continue the discussion in that thread, please bear in mind he is a young, developing player - at the club we all (presumably) support - and show some respect in your comments.
Thanks Liz. Once, this round is complete, I intend on starting a pre-match thread for the game against North. With the injury to hickey, the relatively poor performances across the board in this game, the good performance of McDonald and a few other in the VFL, and the possible return of Paps & McInerney should provide for some interesting discussion. Last week's pre-match thread included some outstanding analysis and provided some reason why this site is so good.
I almost hesitate to revisit the game, now that the thread has calmed down...but the R3 match chain data has arrived, so let's do it.
What is this data? A footy stats nerd's dream is what it is. A chain is every sequence of play on the field: what happened, when it happened, who did it, where they were positioned. Here's a small example showing the chain that led to the Dogs first goal:
period periodSeconds chain_number playerName.surname team.teamName description 1 36 3 English Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick Into F50 1 38 3 Kick Inside 50 Result 1 41 3 McCartin Sydney Swans Spoil 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get Crumb 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Handball 1 53 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Free For 1 75 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Kick 1 77 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Goal
You can see that this is an example where a free kick (to Ugle-Hagan) did lead to a goal.
So we can select all the chains that end in a goal and count up how many of them included a Free For. The answer is:
quarter team goals from free 1 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 1 Western Bulldogs 1 FALSE 1 Western Bulldogs 2 TRUE 2 Western Bulldogs 1 TRUE 3 Sydney Swans 3 FALSE 3 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 3 Western Bulldogs 2 FALSE 4 Sydney Swans 4 FALSE 4 Western Bulldogs 3 FALSE
In total then, 3 of the Dogs 9 goals came from a play that included a free kick: 2 in the first quarter and 1 in the second. The Swans - 2 of their 9 goals from a free kick: 1 in the first quarter, 1 in the third.
So the Dogs got 17 extra free kicks, but scored only one more goal from a free kick. This is why I'm always saying that the free kick differential just doesn't have a very big effect. If it did, we would see a strong relationship between the free kick differential and the score margin. Statistically, looking at lots of games, we don't see that - there is no essentially no relationship.
Now if you want to argue that missed free kicks should have been given which might have changed the result - and you probably do- well, that's a different issue to the differential.
Just to wrap up, some of you might be interested in the assessment from @hasumpstuffedup on Twitter. Overall he rates the umpiring for the game as "poor".
Has the umpire made A Bad decision? on Twitter: "FULL NOTES - Last night's controversial #AFLDogsSwans. Every FK decision analysed"
Interesting work Neil. What about goals and behinds? Does that show anything different?
Edit:
If I'm looking at it right it was 10 scores (3.7) involved a free for. 10 out of 26, a similar ratio to 3 out of 9.
Last edited by RogueSwan; 5th April 2022 at 03:09 PM.
"Fortunately, this is the internet, so knowing nothing is no obstacle to having an opinion!." Beerman 18-07-2017
Fair enough for what it is. But does it, for example, include a play where they got an easy release from a free in D50 to the wing, then there was stoppage or two, then they make their way forward for a goal. Or, free in middle, banged forward, ball bounces in and out of f50 once or twice, but ultimately back in for a goal because they were able to set up behind the ball.I almost hesitate to revisit the game, now that the thread has calmed down...but the R3 match chain data has arrived, so let's do it.
What is this data? A footy stats nerd's dream is what it is. A chain is every sequence of play on the field: what happened, when it happened, who did it, where they were positioned. Here's a small example showing the chain that led to the Dogs first goal:
period periodSeconds chain_number playerName.surname team.teamName description 1 36 3 English Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick Into F50 1 38 3 Kick Inside 50 Result 1 41 3 McCartin Sydney Swans Spoil 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get Crumb 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Handball 1 53 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Free For 1 75 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Kick 1 77 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Goal
You can see that this is an example where a free kick (to Ugle-Hagan) did lead to a goal.
So we can select all the chains that end in a goal and count up how many of them included a Free For. The answer is:
quarter team goals from free 1 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 1 Western Bulldogs 1 FALSE 1 Western Bulldogs 2 TRUE 2 Western Bulldogs 1 TRUE 3 Sydney Swans 3 FALSE 3 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 3 Western Bulldogs 2 FALSE 4 Sydney Swans 4 FALSE 4 Western Bulldogs 3 FALSE
In total then, 3 of the Dogs 9 goals came from a play that included a free kick: 2 in the first quarter and 1 in the second. The Swans - 2 of their 9 goals from a free kick: 1 in the first quarter, 1 in the third.
So the Dogs got 17 extra free kicks, but scored only one more goal from a free kick. This is why I'm always saying that the free kick differential just doesn't have a very big effect. If it did, we would see a strong relationship between the free kick differential and the score margin. Statistically, looking at lots of games, we don't see that - there is no essentially no relationship.
Now if you want to argue that missed free kicks should have been given which might have changed the result - and you probably do
Just to wrap up, some of you might be interested in the assessment from @hasumpstuffedup on Twitter. Overall he rates the umpiring for the game as "poor".
Has the umpire made A Bad decision? on Twitter: "FULL NOTES - Last night's controversial #AFLDogsSwans. Every FK decision analysed"
What I'm basically thinking is field position matters a lot these days. Being released or positioned into a part of the ground that gives one side a competitive advantage is a substantial plus in the way the game is played.
Then, as you said, there were the absurd non-decisions that disadvantaged us. The Rowbottom trip and the below the knees, the Heeney high, the Libba HTB, etc etc
'Delicious' is a fun word to say
The complete data (I didn't show all the columns, there are 26 of them) includes coordinates on the field. It might be interesting to know where the frees that led to goals occurred, but it's probably not very relevant for this game, where goals from free kicks is only 3 versus 2.
If the Swans get a flogging in the free kick department against the Fairypups the next time we play them.....we're still going to whinge.....and yes, the umpiring was poor. Beyond poor.I almost hesitate to revisit the game, now that the thread has calmed down...but the R3 match chain data has arrived, so let's do it.
What is this data? A footy stats nerd's dream is what it is. A chain is every sequence of play on the field: what happened, when it happened, who did it, where they were positioned. Here's a small example showing the chain that led to the Dogs first goal:
period periodSeconds chain_number playerName.surname team.teamName description 1 36 3 English Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick Into F50 1 38 3 Kick Inside 50 Result 1 41 3 McCartin Sydney Swans Spoil 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get Crumb 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Handball 1 53 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Free For 1 75 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Kick 1 77 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Goal
You can see that this is an example where a free kick (to Ugle-Hagan) did lead to a goal.
So we can select all the chains that end in a goal and count up how many of them included a Free For. The answer is:
quarter team goals from free 1 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 1 Western Bulldogs 1 FALSE 1 Western Bulldogs 2 TRUE 2 Western Bulldogs 1 TRUE 3 Sydney Swans 3 FALSE 3 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 3 Western Bulldogs 2 FALSE 4 Sydney Swans 4 FALSE 4 Western Bulldogs 3 FALSE
In total then, 3 of the Dogs 9 goals came from a play that included a free kick: 2 in the first quarter and 1 in the second. The Swans - 2 of their 9 goals from a free kick: 1 in the first quarter, 1 in the third.
So the Dogs got 17 extra free kicks, but scored only one more goal from a free kick. This is why I'm always saying that the free kick differential just doesn't have a very big effect. If it did, we would see a strong relationship between the free kick differential and the score margin. Statistically, looking at lots of games, we don't see that - there is no essentially no relationship.
Now if you want to argue that missed free kicks should have been given which might have changed the result - and you probably do
Just to wrap up, some of you might be interested in the assessment from @hasumpstuffedup on Twitter. Overall he rates the umpiring for the game as "poor".
Has the umpire made A Bad decision? on Twitter: "FULL NOTES - Last night's controversial #AFLDogsSwans. Every FK decision analysed"
Very interesting stuff NeilFWS - would love to have a year to properly comb the data across a whole season, especially when you say data has co-ordinates associated with it to. Would be fascinating to see what insights it would tell.I almost hesitate to revisit the game, now that the thread has calmed down...but the R3 match chain data has arrived, so let's do it.
What is this data? A footy stats nerd's dream is what it is. A chain is every sequence of play on the field: what happened, when it happened, who did it, where they were positioned. Here's a small example showing the chain that led to the Dogs first goal:
period periodSeconds chain_number playerName.surname team.teamName description 1 36 3 English Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick 1 38 3 English Western Bulldogs Kick Into F50 1 38 3 Kick Inside 50 Result 1 41 3 McCartin Sydney Swans Spoil 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Loose Ball Get Crumb 1 43 3 Hannan Western Bulldogs Handball 1 53 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Free For 1 75 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Kick 1 77 3 Ugle-Hagan Western Bulldogs Goal
You can see that this is an example where a free kick (to Ugle-Hagan) did lead to a goal.
So we can select all the chains that end in a goal and count up how many of them included a Free For. The answer is:
quarter team goals from free 1 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 1 Western Bulldogs 1 FALSE 1 Western Bulldogs 2 TRUE 2 Western Bulldogs 1 TRUE 3 Sydney Swans 3 FALSE 3 Sydney Swans 1 TRUE 3 Western Bulldogs 2 FALSE 4 Sydney Swans 4 FALSE 4 Western Bulldogs 3 FALSE
In total then, 3 of the Dogs 9 goals came from a play that included a free kick: 2 in the first quarter and 1 in the second. The Swans - 2 of their 9 goals from a free kick: 1 in the first quarter, 1 in the third.
So the Dogs got 17 extra free kicks, but scored only one more goal from a free kick. This is why I'm always saying that the free kick differential just doesn't have a very big effect. If it did, we would see a strong relationship between the free kick differential and the score margin. Statistically, looking at lots of games, we don't see that - there is no essentially no relationship.
Now if you want to argue that missed free kicks should have been given which might have changed the result - and you probably do
Just to wrap up, some of you might be interested in the assessment from @hasumpstuffedup on Twitter. Overall he rates the umpiring for the game as "poor".
Has the umpire made A Bad decision? on Twitter: "FULL NOTES - Last night's controversial #AFLDogsSwans. Every FK decision analysed"
"You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."
Many thanks Neil
Just to add to that analysis :
Two-thirds of all points usually come from turnovers in AFL.
Well that has been the stat's since around 2017 season.
Teams like Richmond 3 premierships last 5 seasons tended to also take the least marks so dont rely as heavily on forwards taking marks?
Using turnovers as a weapon was Richmonds success and they did it again in the 2020 GF with the least amount of marks in any GF since the 1960s.
The number of turnovers per AFL game has increased by 13 per cent over the past 5 seasons, from 126 per match in 2015 to an average of 143 season 2021.
No side was better at forcing its rivals into mistakes whilst minimising its own.
On average, the Tigers gave up the ball nine times fewer per match than their opponents in their 3 premiership years.
Last edited by Auntie.Gerald; 5th April 2022 at 08:25 PM.
Gee some excuses in here . We played like tripe , nearly won , didn't deserve to . Move on
Its amazing how many people I know that don't follow the Swans, but know that I'm a fanatic, have specifically mentioned the poor umpiring in this game to me even though I never raised it with them! Its uncanny, so clearly there was an issue although I agree with TB that we played like @@@@e on the night.
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