Round 23: the other games. For whom shall the wheels fall off?

**Thunder Shaker** · 19th August 2023, 10:36 PM

As it stands, St Kilda is ending Geelong's season.

If we win and the Saints win, seven teams are guaranteed to play finals, with the last place realistically down to two teams, GWS and the Bulldogs (Essendon's "mathematical" chance is not realistic). The Bulldogs play West Coast tomorrow.

**barry** · 19th August 2023, 11:34 PM

Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker

As it stands, St Kilda is ending Geelong's season.

If we win and the Saints win, seven teams are guaranteed to play finals, with the last place realistically down to two teams, GWS and the Bulldogs (Essendon's "mathematical" chance is not realistic). The Bulldogs play West Coast tomorrow.

If GWS beat carlton next week we have to beat Melbourne.
Ditto, saint Kilda have to beat the lions.
Plenty not decided yet, and we won't know about GWS because they play last.

**Nico** · 20th August 2023, 12:06 AM

On Geelong's insipid effort today the Dogs should beat them.

**Maltopia** · 20th August 2023, 07:16 AM

Originally Posted by barry

If GWS beat carlton next week we have to beat Melbourne.
Ditto, saint Kilda have to beat the lions.
Plenty not decided yet, and we won't know about GWS because they play last.

St Kilda’s result vs the Lions is irrelevant to us making the finals or not, if we lose to Melbourne.

If Bulldogs beat the Eagles today, and they beat Geelong next week, we drop to eighth on the ladder before our Melbourne game. If we lose to them, then GWS beating Carlton knocks us out.

At Kilda winning just means we can’t finish 6th if we beat Melbourne.

St Kilda losing to Geelong could see them out of the eight if Bulldogs win, we win and GWS win and gain more than 3.3 percentage.

**Kafka's Ghost** · 20th August 2023, 08:29 AM

The wheels definitely fell off the Bomber Bandwagon. It’s now stranded high and dry as its passengers jump off in droves.
Unfortunately the Carlton Carousel is still turning and pumping out chintzy music.

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**barry** · 20th August 2023, 08:51 AM

I think the only scenario where we are safe in the 8 after this weekend is if WC beat Bulldogs. Go eagles!

**Thunder Shaker** · 20th August 2023, 09:06 AM

It is interesting comparing the current ladder to the final ladder in 2011. (The last time Carlton made the finals by their own efforts.)

2011 top 8:
Collingwood
Geelong
Hawthorn
West Coast
Carlton
St Kilda
Sydney Swans
Essendon

2023 current ladder:
Collingwood
Brisbane Lions
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Carlton
St Kilda
Sydney Swans
GWS Giants

Four teams currently occupy the same spots on the top 8 in both years.
The current top four sides apart from Collingwood occupied three of the bottom five spots on the ladder in 2011 (Melbourne 13th/17, Brisbane Lions 15th/17, Port Adelaide 16th/17)
Two of the 2011 top 4 sides currently occupy spots in the bottom three this year (Hawthorn 16th/18, West Coast 18th/18)

**Thunder Shaker** · 20th August 2023, 09:26 AM

Originally Posted by Thunder Shaker

As it stands, St Kilda is ending Geelong's season.

If we win and the Saints win, seven teams are guaranteed to play finals, with the last place realistically down to two teams, GWS and the Bulldogs (Essendon's "mathematical" chance is not realistic). The Bulldogs play West Coast tomorrow.

I forgot to account for a couple of things here, most notably that the Bulldogs had an extra game to play. This means the teams assured of making the finals are only settled down to Carlton in fifth.

However, it is true that the top nine is realistically locked in. No team below 10th has any chance.

The chances of Essendon qualifying for the finals are so remote that they can be ignored: Essendon would have to defeat Collingwood by a significantly greater margin than they lost to GWS, Geelong or West Coast has to beat the Bulldogs by a similar margin, and Carlton must defeat GWS also by a significant margin. This is the realm of feverish mathematical fantasy.