Quarters won

[NMWBloods]

A slightly worrying statistic is the number of quarters we've won this year and also in our past three wins.

Of 36 quarters, we've won 15, drawn 2 and lost 19 (for 5 wins).

In our past 3 wins, we won only 6 quarters out of 12.

As comparisons:
West Coast 25-1-10 (8 wins)
Geelong are 21-0-15 (7 wins)
Richmond are 17-1-18 (7 wins)
Melbourne 23-0-13 (6 wins)
Adelaide are 22-1-13 (5 wins)
Kangaroos are 14-1-21 (5 wins)
St Kilda are 20-0-16 (4 wins)
Fremantle are 19-1-16 (4 wins)
W Bulldogs are 15-0-21 (4 wins)
Port Adelaide are 12-2-22 (3.5 wins)
Hawthorn are 18-1-17 (3 wins)
Brisbane are 16-2-18 (3 wins)
Essendon are 16-0-20 (3 wins)
Carlton are 14-1-21 (2.5 wins)
Collingwood are 14-1-21 (2 wins)

Indicates that we are not performing well for full games, even when we win.

So, in 2005 we have won 42% of our quarters, and only 50% in the past 3 wins. Last year we won 49% overall and in 2003 we won 56%.

I think a good sign would be a winning percentage of mid 50s to low 60s in a season, while you'd want to see about 75% in games you win.

[Tuesday]

It's like they [somehow] manage to pick up the card off the board that says "Get out of jail free. Do not pass go, do not collect $200".

They only just get there, but the point is they get there.

[NMWBloods]

We do just get there, however it means we need to improve dramatically otherwise the winning will simply remain irregular.

[j s]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Indicates that we are not performing well for full games, even when we win.

The trend is in the right direction though - up from 37.5% for the first six games to 50.0% for the latest three.

[Dave]

I guess the positive thing is that there is a lot more room for improvement.
It's not as though we are at our best and just getting out of jail.
That would be more concerning.

[chammond]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
We do just get there, however it means we need to improve dramatically otherwise the winning will simply remain irregular.

The Bulldogs game did go against the trend a little, though. Up til round 9 we were best performed in Q's 1 and 4, whereas on Sunday we were clearly the better team in Q's 2 & 3.

I'm taking this as a definite sign of improvement . . . . in the absence of anything better

I must confess that I was almost in despair at quarter time on Sunday . . . that first quarter must surely have been the worst performance in a long, long time?

[mocaholic]

Originally posted by Tuesday
It's like they [somehow] manage to pick up the card off the board that says "Get out of jail free. Do not pass go, do not collect $200".

They only just get there, but the point is they get there.

We're Octagonal as opposed to Rubiton.

[Schneiderman]

Originally posted by NMWBloods
Indicates that we are not performing well for full games, even when we win.

Yes it does, if you want to see the down side.

And/Or that when we switch on, we are seriously good. Conversely, when we lose a quarter we restrict the damage. Do the stats support this? I think so, but cant be bothered working it out.

I am a firm believer that competitive sport is a momentum thing... and that curbing the damage when your opponent has the momentum, plus maximising it when you have it, is critical. As a result, its no good winning lots of quarters by small margins, and losing only a few by lots.

Note how Richmond is travelling, and they have won two more games than us. Same theory applies there too.

[giant]

Note the Kangas stats - even when they were 5-0 they'd lost more qrs than they'd won. Symptomatic of a team that was doing it the hard way - and of a team that will likely lose its fifth in a row this week.

[NMWBloods]

Originally posted by Schneiderman
And/Or that when we switch on, we are seriously good. Conversely, when we lose a quarter we restrict the damage. Do the stats support this? I think so, but cant be bothered working it out.

I don't agree so much with the former - I don't think we've been "seriously good" much at all this year.

We do restrict the scores against us, but that's hardly surprising given we can often play that lock down style of play.

[gilze]

I think our numbers of quarters won is well represented in the fact that we have a percentage of 96%. But crucially we have gritted it out when we've had to in recent weeks. We could easily have dropped the games against the bombers and bulldogs. what i'd like to know is the average losing margin for the 19 quarters we've lost cause i'm sure a lot of them have been real tight.

[NMWBloods]

Unfortunately I can't get that filter, but in terms of F/A %:

Q1: 94.5%
Q2: 101.2%
Q3: 91.9%
Q4: 96.5%

Our biggest quarter wins (20 pts or more) are:
Brisbane Q4: 38 pts
Hawthorn Q2: 24 pts
Essendon Q4: 22 pts
Bulldogs Q3: 21 pts

We don't have many big winning quarters as we don't kick many goals. We've managed 5 or more goals in a quarter only 4 times, twice against Hawthorn.

Our biggest quarter losses (20 pts or more) are:
Adelaide Q4: 32 pts
Kangaroos Q4: 28 pts
West Coast Q2: 21 pts
West Coast Q3: 20 pts

Opponents have managed 5 goals or more in a quarter 6 times.


As a comparison against say Richmond:

in terms of F/A %:

Q1: 100.0%
Q2: 104.0%
Q3: 123.2%
Q4: 133.5%

The biggest quarter wins (20 pts or more) are:
Collingwood Q4: 45 pts
Carlton Q1: 44 pts
Carlton Q2: 33 pts
Fremantle Q3: 37 pts
Port Adelaide Q3: 37 points
Fremantle Q1: 25 pts
Port Adelaide Q2: 22 pts

They've managed 5 or more goals in a quarter 12 times.

The biggest quarter losses (20 pts or more) are:
StKilda Q1: 28 pts
Geelong Q3: 27 pts
Geelong Q2: 26 pts
Port Adelaide Q1: 20 pts

Opponents have managed 5 goals or more in a quarter 10 times, 7 of which were against Geelong (4) and StKilda (3) when they were thumped.

Richmond is an example of a team that roughly splits its quarters, but it wins them it can do very well and is able to put teams away, sometimes in the course of a couple of quarters.

It also highlights another difference - risk taking. They seem to be going out to win by kicking a lot of goals and of course sometimes it backfires, as opposed to playing to protect a lead or restrict their opponents. Their opponents kick 1 extra goal per game relative to Swans' opponents, but they kick 4 extra goals per game relative to the Swans.