Pretty simple equation this week.

Win, and we'll either finish first if Hawthorn loses to the Eagles (very unlikely), or, at least, maintain our spot in second, even if Adelaide wins against the Suns (very likely).

As long as we win, Adelaide would have to beat the Suns by the mother of all mega-floggings to displace us in second (very unlikely, but they'll probably try).

Of course, if we lose, we'll most likely finish third, and have to face the Crows on their home turf in the Qualifying Final.

So how likely is it that we'll beat the Cats this week?

The team should have very fond memories of their last trip to the Cattery. At the time, Geelong were coming off the bye and some pretty soft preceeding matches, so they were ripe for the picking. I don't think they'll be like that this time.

At this time of the year, ladder position and percentage indicates we should win. But it's going to be tough.

I think it will come down to hunger, and how much we'd prefer a Sydney final than having to travel to Adelaide. And if Jude Bolton is back this week, that will only help.

So I'll back us to win, but only narrowly.

Swans by 6.